ATL: IRENE - Models

[maxintensity]

Well,

on the bright side, IMO, there is no way it gets that strong. Most of the deepening was happening over Cuba, though I'm sure some can happen between Cuba and Florida as well. It will be weakened by crossing Haiti and Cuba, but the model is telling us conditions are favorable for re-strengthening. And of course shear forecasts are almost always wrong. So something to keep a very close eye on, but not sure if it's going to be as strong as the GFS claims it will be.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

If this were only the GFS showing strength then thats one thing. When you have GFDL, HWRF, ECMWF, CMC on board as well all showing a significant hurricane whether it interacts with cuba or not then it changes things I think. What do you think it will do?

[DESTRUCTION5]

GA flooding Imminent

I am not sure if it is a problem on my end but all of the pictures you post are way behind. Is anyone else seeing this? I've also seen many pictures posted over and over but you label them 24, 48, etc but it doesn't change. Do I need to refresh or are you linking to the wrong picture?

REFRESH

[Aric Dunn]

wow i was expecting a bit more west based on what folks were saying earlier tonight. very interesting run. will be cool to see what the gfdl does in future runs.

maybe listening to the wrong folks ?

I doubt it

wxman57 wrote:
Note that it's 1 degree of latitude that = 60 nautical miles. The distance between 1 degree of longitude is greatest at the Equator and decreases poleward to zero at the North Pole. So you cannot use degrees of longitude to estimate speed.

NHC track did shift west, as I expected. I think the consensus models will continue to shift west tonight, leading to a more powerful hurricane when Irene hits Cuba and passes west of the Florida peninsula.

but the GFS shifted.. east..

[tolakram]

GA flooding Imminent

I am not sure if it is a problem on my end but all of the pictures you post are way behind. Is anyone else seeing this? I've also seen many pictures posted over and over but you label them 24, 48, etc but it doesn't change. Do I need to refresh or are you linking to the wrong picture?

For the direct links you have to refresh since those are updated model pics. You should be seeing my saved pics (copied to imageshack) ok.

[HeatherAKC]

Ok. So what's the intensity on this South Florida hit? I mean, I vowed in '92 to get out of dodge for the next big one. 98-something MB's?

[blp]

im not to keen on this run, all this flipping by the gfs is making me crazy.one thing is ALMOST certain but NOT set in stone is Florida may be looking at a very strong hurricane.

Through the first 5 days the GFS has not been flipping it has been remarkable consistent the last several runs. It is common for a deviation after 5 days that could swing 100 miles or greater. Even the NHC cone has a 200 mile error threshold after 5 days. Considering all this the GFS has been very consistent even past 5 days. Which is very un GFS like I must say.

[WeatherEmperor]

00Z Nogaps is out to 108hr so far. It makes landfall in South Florida in ALMOST the exact same spot as the GFS just did.....

[Ivanhater]

It did..slightly stronger shortwave swinging through but the way the GFS bombs this out over Cuba is insane...well see.

[Blown Away]

That GFS run took the path of least land interaction before SFL.

[bella_may]

Wxman is always pretty accurate in predicting these things. If he says gom storm, chances are that's where it will go

[red herring]

goodnight Irene

[TwisterFanatic]

wow i was expecting a bit more west based on what folks were saying earlier tonight. very interesting run. will be cool to see what the gfdl does in future runs.

maybe listening to the wrong folks ?

LOL. perhaps so but there were some respected blue taggers in the mix. they're all conspicuously absent now but they may be sleeping like normal people. needless to say... this is getting spicy.

I doubt they're off hiding.

[WeatherEmperor]

00Z Nogaps hits Miami and runs it up the east coast of FL.....similarly to the GFS. Love or hate the Nogaps, its consistency to the GFS is becoming scary

[Stormcenter]

I would say if I live anywhere in Florida right now I would start filling up
those cars and vans with gasoline just in case. IMO

[TBCaneFreak]

wow i was expecting a bit more west based on what folks were saying earlier tonight. very interesting run. will be cool to see what the gfdl does in future runs.

maybe listening to the wrong folks ?

My thoughts remain unchanged...most models seem to be in line with a Florida Peninsula lanfall, while the GFS Ensembels are fairly tightly clusted along or just offshore the West Coast to about 84.0....Looks like it could, and probably will be a matter of when will decide to take the turn we know will happen, and how strong will she be?

[HURRICANELONNY]

What are the odds of Irene follow the NHC track and intensity at this point. I would say 20%. Not that I ever took statistics.

[jdray]

I would say if I live anywhere in Florida right now I would start filling up
those cars and vans with gasoline just in case. IMO

Water jugs and food supply. Should be an interesting week.

[blp]

That GFS run took the path of least land interaction before SFL.

Very similar to Emily when it was in that area but obvisouly much different on intensity. It would be some dancing act I must say if it pulls it off.

[Blown Away]

I would say if I live anywhere in Florida right now I would start filling up
those cars and vans with gasoline just in case. IMO

I will.
Your funny Stormcenter!!

[ConvergenceZone]

If it does take that track the GFS forecasting, I would expect a tropical storm or perhaps very low end hurricane by the time it reaches Florida. There's no way it doesn't shredded to bits by traversing that much over Cuba and spending 60 hours over Haiti (especially the 60 hours of Haiti part).... GFS has no clue.....

On the flip side if it goes into the Gulf, a major hurricane would be expected.