ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[BigB0882]

Wow, the pressure is falling quickly or it is a lot lower than anticipated. I think it is definitely TS Dom right now. I hope it isn't bombing.

[midnight8]

I can't wait to see where it is going. If it looks like it may come close I always get nervous but very excited at the same time. As long as you are high enough to stay away from the surge these storms put on a heck of a show. Hoping nothing to major and hopefully will land where someone needs the rain. In Orange, TX we have finally been getting our rain lately

[Dave]

805
URNT15 KNHC 272017
AF300 01DDA INVEST HDOB 21 20110727
200800 2200N 08702W 9772 00256 0063 +239 +169 287023 024 023 002 00
200830 2159N 08703W 9774 00257 0067 +235 +169 292022 022 020 002 00
200900 2158N 08705W 9773 00260 0068 +229 +169 299020 021 016 005 00
200930 2157N 08706W 9768 00267 0071 +227 +169 299021 022 018 003 00
201000 2157N 08707W 9772 00264 0071 +232 +168 294022 022 016 004 00
201030 2156N 08709W 9764 00273 0074 +236 +168 297020 020 017 005 00
201100 2155N 08710W 9774 00265 0075 +235 +169 291019 019 017 005 00
201130 2155N 08711W 9770 00270 0076 +235 +169 293018 018 013 006 00
201200 2154N 08713W 9770 00270 0077 +234 +168 299017 017 009 003 00
201230 2153N 08714W 9769 00272 0077 +232 +167 307016 017 005 006 03
201300 2152N 08716W 9770 00272 0080 +230 +166 311016 016 010 002 00
201330 2152N 08717W 9770 00273 0080 +230 +164 308014 015 006 005 03
201400 2151N 08718W 9772 00272 0081 +230 +162 312015 016 007 005 00
201430 2150N 08720W 9770 00274 0082 +230 +160 314016 016 008 006 00
201500 2150N 08721W 9772 00273 0082 +230 +158 312016 016 015 006 00
201530 2149N 08723W 9769 00276 0083 +230 +157 313015 016 012 006 00
201600 2148N 08724W 9769 00276 0083 +230 +155 309016 018 015 008 00
201630 2147N 08726W 9770 00276 0084 +230 +154 299017 018 021 007 00
201700 2147N 08727W 9770 00273 0082 +233 +153 291019 020 017 007 00
201730 2146N 08728W 9772 00272 0082 +232 +152 291020 020 022 006 00
$$
;

[SouthDadeFish]

Pressure isn't the determining factor. Pressure gradient is what creates wind. With this small thing, there probably is a pretty strong pressure gradient though.

[HurricaneBrain]

Rapid pressure drops!

[HURAKAN]

[Ellsey]

Just curious, what does "bombing" refer to?

By the way, thanks to everyone for all the info. It's been fascinating.

[SouthDadeFish]

Cirrus outflow is starting to expand NW, a sign that shear is letting up. This thing might have some surprises up its sleeve. Looking really good on satellite.

[x-y-no]

BEST TRACK: AL04, 221N 868W, 35kts, 1004mb, TS FOUR

[cycloneye]

BEST TRACK: AL04, 221N 868W, 35kts, 1004mb, TS FOUR

Don!

[Ptarmigan]

Pressure isn't the determining factor. Pressure gradient is what creates wind. With this small thing, there probably is a pretty strong pressure gradient though.

Very true. I have seen storms with a central pressure of 940 millibars. They can range from Charley (2004) as a Category 4 or Ike (2008) as a Category 2. Charley was a small hurricane, while Ike was huge.

[KWT]

75 pages and it still is officially an Invest - is that a record?

not even close amazingly!

There was an invest that has gone 100 pages...never got upgraded.

Anyway LLC is a bit further east then expected judging by the way recon had to go further east to get the true center...its probably not bombing, its jsut recon MISSED the center on its last pass through to the west....this time they got the true pressure by flying further east to get a good center fix.

Maybe the slight eastward adjustment may also be reflected in a slight eastward shift for the forecast?

[Sanibel]

It was on its way last night.


What you are seeing now is the boost it got from passing over the Gulf Stream in the Channel.

[NDG]

Would they upgrade to DON on the pressure readings alone, even if the TS force wind readings are rain contaminated as they call it?

Oh yeah, just on the pressure readings there is plenty of pressure gradient for clean tropical force winds.

[drezee]

I have half my office on this site now...the servers are going to blow if this thing gets upgraded!

Per recon, the pressure fall is real. Physics wouldn't allow a 14 mb pressure difference from Buoy 42003 and only have 35mph winds.

[Crackbone]

Just curious, what does "bombing" refer to?

By the way, thanks to everyone for all the info. It's been fascinating.

Generally it refers to a system gaining intensity quickly, ie, like a bomb going off, exploding.

[Dave]

851
URNT15 KNHC 272027
AF300 01DDA INVEST HDOB 22 20110727
201800 2145N 08730W 9769 00274 0083 +228 +151 293019 019 021 009 03
201830 2144N 08729W 9772 00276 0084 +230 +151 281019 020 /// /// 03
201900 2143N 08728W 9780 00266 0084 +218 +152 272021 023 032 013 03
201930 2143N 08726W 9769 00276 0086 +196 +151 270025 027 037 015 00
202000 2142N 08724W 9764 00279 0084 +209 +148 279026 027 032 014 00
202030 2142N 08722W 9780 00265 0084 +209 +147 275025 026 024 015 00
202100 2141N 08721W 9773 00272 0085 +208 +147 267026 027 024 014 03
202130 2141N 08719W 9775 00271 0085 +221 +147 261023 023 017 011 00
202200 2140N 08717W 9770 00276 0084 +230 +146 258022 022 014 007 03
202230 2140N 08715W 9770 00276 0084 +230 +146 257023 023 014 009 00
202300 2139N 08713W 9768 00278 0085 +223 +147 251023 024 025 010 00
202330 2139N 08712W 9769 00276 0087 +195 +147 246025 026 033 016 03
202400 2138N 08710W 9773 00274 0088 +197 +145 250025 026 035 017 03
202430 2138N 08708W 9769 00281 0089 +211 +143 253024 024 023 011 00
202500 2137N 08707W 9767 00282 0088 +224 +142 256024 025 021 014 00
202530 2137N 08705W 9771 00278 0087 +235 +142 249025 025 022 008 00
202600 2136N 08703W 9768 00283 0089 +230 +143 251024 025 022 007 00
202630 2136N 08701W 9776 00276 0090 +222 +146 244023 023 026 005 00
202700 2135N 08700W 9762 00290 0094 +208 +147 234019 027 028 008 00
202730 2135N 08658W 9769 00282 0092 +198 +148 216025 026 035 013 00
$$
;


CrazyC83 or someone want to take over for awhile....5 hrs is long enough. Thanks!

[KWT]

Its a small system, which will make it more prone to dry air/shear, but also means its going to be able to quickly pull a core together...I sure hope this isn't about to go the way of Celia which really bombed in a similar area...at a similar time of year...

[gboudx]

Wow...some 400+ people are browsing the forum right now. Go Storm2k! I'd encourage those of you who are guests to sign-up and get involved with the best weather board on the net!

Best weather board indeed. Cmon guests...just sign up and tell us where you are from. We are all a gigantic family here for the most part. WE all rely on each other as well as the pro mets for info.

Its such a good board that it was directly integrated into the HurricaneTracker iPad app.

[HurricaneBrain]

Unofficially Don?