ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Ivanhater]

FWIW, 18Z Nogaps into the Gulf with landfall near Pensacola...More importantly the trend...


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Well Well..right on my doorstep

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[HurricaneBrain]

Does lowering to 90% indicate a bit of a lack of confidence that this is going to develop? I realize it is only a small percentage, but it is lower than it was.

We have to look at this like it just got bumped up from 80% to 90%. Just because it got bumped down a little doesn't mean that we won't see something from this. I look at it like this - a percentage is a percentage no matter what past chances were.

[hurricanefloyd5]

all the models look to be in a close agreement that bahama's will be hit and headed towards florida!!!!!!!!!!!!

Stop posting false information. There is no agreement that this is headed toward Florida..yet anyways. Consider this a warning.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

am I in the worng whne I say that about the models according to DR.Jeff Masters page and if I am worng then forgive me for that

[Evil Jeremy]

all the models look to be in a close agreement that bahama's will be hit and headed towards florida!!!!!!!!!!!!

Stop posting false information. There is no agreement that this is headed toward Florida..yet anyways. Consider this a warning.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

am I in the worng whne I say that about the models according to DR.Jeff Masters page and if I am worng then forgive me for that

That does not include all the models, none of the ones on the page hit Florida, and two of them recurve north way before.

[Ptarmigan]

Does lowering to 90% indicate a bit of a lack of confidence that this is going to develop? I realize it is only a small percentage, but it is lower than it was.

We have to look at this like it just got bumped up from 80% to 90%. Just because it got bumped down a little doesn't mean that we won't see something from this. I look at it like this - a percentage is a percentage no matter what past chances were.

Exactly. To me, it is either low, medium, or high.

[KWT]

Yeah 80/90/100% all pretty much are suggestive that a TD is quite likely to form sooner rather then later.

Have to see what it looks like tomorrow am with the help of another Dmax.

[BigB0882]

The longer this takes to form the more closely I keep an eye on this. I am taking the models with a grain of salt because nothing has formed yet and many of them initiate with a TS at least and that is clearly wrong so how can the rest of the track be right? When we get an LLC and some recon data ingested then the models should hold a lot more weight.

[ROCK]

the EURO tonight should clear all of this up.....

[bella_may]

the EURO tonight should clear all of this up.....

what time does it come out?

[StarmanHDB]

all the models look to be in a close agreement that bahama's will be hit and headed towards florida!!!!!!!!!!!!

Admitting that I am nowhere near being any type of meteorologist (more like a mere amateur at best), I could be wrong, but wouldn't one think that posting the s2k disclaimer would be very appropriate when posting such a bold, definitive sounding statement? Then again, I'm just a wx buff. What do I know?

[ROCK]

the EURO tonight should clear all of this up.....

what time does it come out?

1am....

[Florida1118]

the EURO tonight should clear all of this up.....

what time does it come out?

1am....

Whys the Euro better than other models...?

[bella_may]

FWIW, 18Z Nogaps into the Gulf with landfall near Pensacola...More importantly the trend...


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Well Well..right on my doorstep

[img]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us[/img]

just a little further west and its at mine...... scary!

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

all the models look to be in a close agreement that bahama's will be hit and headed towards florida!!!!!!!!!!!!

Admitting that I am nowhere near being any type of meteorologist (more like a mere amateur at best), I could be wrong, but wouldn't one think that posting the s2k disclaimer would be very appropriate when posting such a bold, definitive sounding statement? Then again, I'm just a wx buff. What do I know?

One would think, -removed- is reaching manic levels in here.

[HurricaneWarning92]

Looks to me the eastern one is catching up with the western one and it is sucking up the convection... not sure.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rgb.html

[Evil Jeremy]

Whys the Euro better than other models...?

It's one of the better ones.

[bella_may]

i'll probably stay up too see the new euro run hopefully it wont be on board with the nogaps

[perk]

-removed- i thought that was on the list of banned words on this forum.

[HurricaneWarning92]

It turned out we had 4 storms by August not 5...

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

-removed- i thought that was on the list of banned words on this forum.

If so I apologize, and will retract it, still things are getting a tad out of hand in this thread.