ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

set that just came in.. looks like they missed it again to the west this time.

[tolakram]

[wzrgirl1]

Just read up on the Hebert box and looks as if she is going through it right now. Quite interesting.......

[sittingduck]

Think they are reading here and messing with you Aric lol.

[KWT]

Aric, looking at the last pass through i agree thats the zon any LLC is going to be in, not quite sure why they are missing it?

If it takes the GFD path, we'll very likely have a major hurricane at some point in the trek northwards...probably between 95-105kts would be the range IMO, upper conditions look too good post GA.

[summersquall]

Curious as to if the South Florida media has began covering this?

I don't watch much TV but found this off of Yahoo from the Miami Herald site:

Tropical Storm Irene became the ninth named storm of the season Saturday evening, and forecasters say South Florida residents should keep this one on their radars.

With winds topping 50 mph on Saturday, the storm is located about 190 miles east of the Caribbean island Dominica and could impact Florida on Thursday or Friday.

Irene is expected to reach Hurricane strength by Monday when it is near Hispaniola.

"It is still really early," said Eric Blake, hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center. "It is certainly something that residents of South Florida should monitor."

Blake said the storm will likely move northwest toward Florida, but because it is so far away there is still a lot of uncertainty in the tracking.

Read more: http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/08/20/2 ... z1VgRWo18l

Definately sounds like they are downplaying it at the moment.

[Aric Dunn]

Think they are reading here and messing with you Aric lol.

haha.. yeah that would be funny..

but winds went from NE to NNW means the are on the SW side of the circ.. need to turn to the NE to pass the center.

[Sanibel]

Puerto Rican long range radar:


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes



.

[Frank2]

The good news is that a track to the north of the islands would not only be good news for the larger islands but would also increase the chance of a recurve, once the troughs start to influence it...

[NDG]

Looks like Recon is finally going to go through the center we have been watching this morning.
I have it near 17.2N & 63.4W

[tolakram]

Looks to be building an eye wall.

Live Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

[KWT]

The good news is that a track to the north of the islands would not only be good news for the larger islands but would also increase the chance of a recurve, once the troughs start to influence it...

Not likely to recurve Frank, same set-up as Hugo/Hazel...though granted the latter is a different time of year, but broadly same pattern...

I've been saying this for a while, but I'd say odds of a recurve are much lower then normal, maybe 10% chance against a 90% of a US landfall...

Its bad news because instead of a 50-70kts system, you get a 100-120kts system making landfall...

By the way, ask anyone, I'm normally very gung ho on recurves, I don't think I've ever been so agressive on the idea of a system making landfall...at least not since 2008!

[Dave]

379
URNT15 KNHC 211704
AF300 0209A IRENE HDOB 41 20110821
165430 1717N 06339W 8433 01501 //// +188 //// 312026 027 034 004 05
165500 1716N 06337W 8428 01505 //// +192 //// 298028 030 031 001 05
165530 1716N 06335W 8427 01503 //// +204 //// 276028 029 027 003 05
165600 1717N 06333W 8428 01501 //// +202 //// 254028 029 031 002 01
165630 1717N 06332W 8425 01503 //// +201 //// 242029 030 031 001 05
165700 1718N 06330W 8431 01492 //// +197 //// 231028 030 /// /// 05
165730 1720N 06330W 8430 01489 //// +198 //// 225018 020 027 002 05
165800 1722N 06331W 8426 01489 //// +205 //// 213011 014 024 000 05
165830 1722N 06332W 8437 01475 //// +204 //// 122003 005 023 000 01
165900 1723N 06334W 8429 01481 //// +199 //// 047010 013 024 001 01
165930 1724N 06335W 8430 01485 //// +192 //// 045021 026 031 002 01
170000 1725N 06337W 8430 01488 //// +184 //// 045026 027 /// /// 05
170030 1726N 06336W 8433 01486 //// +185 //// 048026 027 /// /// 05
170100 1725N 06335W 8425 01490 //// +191 //// 045018 022 031 002 05
170130 1724N 06334W 8432 01481 //// +196 //// 036007 010 026 002 05
170200 1723N 06333W 8429 01483 //// +201 //// 240003 007 022 000 05
170230 1722N 06332W 8436 01478 //// +204 //// 224014 017 /// /// 05
170300 1720N 06332W 8320 01598 //// +193 //// 245016 017 /// /// 05
170330 1720N 06334W 8100 01831 //// +179 //// 267017 018 029 001 01
170400 1719N 06335W 8066 01874 //// +174 //// 276021 022 026 001 01
$$
;

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

.

I would think the NHC has to shift its forecast track east by at least 50 miles or so...the line may be east of Florida for the next advisory.

Models are latching onto the weakness and if this storm gets as strong as they say, it should really feel it and move east of Florida.

[RL3AO]

They found the center!

[Aric Dunn]

good recon turned to pass through.. exactly where i had it located..

165830 1722N 06332W 8437 01475 //// +204 //// 122003 005 023 000 01

[brunota2003]

There you go, Aric...they just decided to mess around with you. Now...what will the pressure be on the drop?

[NDG]

Looks like 17.4N & 63.5W

[tolakram]

[brunota2003]

Recon ascending...looks like the mission is probably over. Good job teams!