ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[MississippiWx]

From Greg Bostwick (KFDM 6 Chief Met) facebook page:

System in the Gulf will be upgraded to TS "Don". Don is packing 40 mph winds with motion to the WNW about 12 mph. Don could become a CAT 1 hurricane before landfall which will likely be near Brownsville Friday evening.

That's interesting because the consensus is up around the Central TX coastline...

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 272038
AF300 01DDA INVEST HDOB 23 20110727
202800 2134N 08656W 9782 00273 0094 +197 +146 220026 029 050 020 03
202830 2134N 08655W 9765 00289 0094 +214 +144 228023 024 014 010 00
202900 2133N 08653W 9771 00283 0093 +228 +143 220022 023 007 005 03
202930 2133N 08651W 9771 00283 0093 +230 +144 217023 024 006 006 00
203000 2132N 08650W 9770 00284 0093 +234 +145 212023 024 010 002 00
203030 2132N 08648W 9771 00281 0091 +236 +147 204022 023 015 016 03
203100 2131N 08646W 9776 00279 0093 +236 +150 199021 022 015 003 00
203130 2131N 08645W 9765 00287 0091 +237 +154 197023 024 016 003 03
203200 2130N 08643W 9774 00278 0091 +240 +158 193024 025 019 002 03
203230 2130N 08642W 9775 00281 0093 +240 +162 189023 023 020 003 00
203300 2129N 08640W 9767 00289 0094 +239 +166 183024 024 020 003 03
203330 2129N 08639W 9777 00281 0095 +239 +169 178023 024 020 002 00
203400 2128N 08637W 9771 00288 0096 +239 +172 178023 024 022 003 03
203430 2128N 08636W 9766 00290 0096 +237 +173 180023 023 021 004 03
203500 2128N 08634W 9769 00290 0098 +235 +175 179021 022 015 005 03
203530 2127N 08632W 9770 00288 0098 +232 +176 177025 026 029 007 00
203600 2127N 08631W 9768 00293 0101 +218 +174 176026 028 034 009 00
203630 2126N 08630W 9768 00293 0101 +230 +170 178024 025 028 005 03
203700 2126N 08628W 9768 00293 0101 +229 +166 174024 024 025 003 00
203730 2125N 08627W 9773 00289 0101 +222 +162 169021 021 024 007 00
$$
;

50 kt SFMR flagged.

[KWT]

Not so sure I'd rule out a landfall that far south, the GFS is both way too weak with this system and also is known to have a east bias, as does the high resolution models which are run from it...BRO IMO is too far south but i'm betting its closer to BRO than the LA/TX border...

[djmikey]

Yep he sure is.

From Greg Bostwick (KFDM 6 Chief Met) facebook page:

System in the Gulf will be upgraded to TS "Don". Don is packing 40 mph winds with motion to the WNW about 12 mph. Don could become a CAT 1 hurricane before landfall which will likely be near Brownsville Friday evening.

Wow ... he's already pulling the trigger on landfall ... and so far south. Hugging the Euro, I guess.

That's what I said..Brownsville? ..Trend has been northward and clearly show between Matagorda and Galveston...Maybe he has his reasons, who knows..

[CrazyC83]

I definitely agree Brownsville is too far south too. Somewhere around Port Lavaca, maybe closer to Galveston.

[HurricaneBrain]

Greg is a great meteorologist. But I'm not too sure about Brownsville! He is usually right about anything tropical though...

[KWT]

Even though it is somewhat comparable in size, this is not likely to rival either Celia (1970) or Bret (1999). Landfall in Kenedy County (like Bret) would be a good thing, though.

Indeed that maybe pushing it a little, but Celia is a nice demonstration of what can happen out there...JtSmarts systems probably more useful comprasion though!

[HURAKAN]

[ronjon]

Hey I'm happy for all you texans suffering through the drought. Just what the doctor ordered. Hope this kicks off a trend of wetter weather for you all.

[StormClouds63]

Even though it is somewhat comparable in size, this is not likely to rival either Celia (1970) or Bret (1999). Landfall in Kenedy County (like Bret) would be a good thing, though.

I'm sticking to my Dolly-08/Claudette-03 hybrid.

I think you're right.

[drezee]

Recon is reporting lightning. This is interesting...

Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Thunderstorm(s)

[djmikey]

KPRC Local 2 Frank Billingsley says...

Hurricane Hunters have closed off a circulation and finding Tropical Storm Force Winds....Looks like we have DON on our hands and it's heading our way.

[Wx_Warrior]

He may change it, who knows. I just saw it and thought I would paste it since he's well respected.

Just have to keep eyes and ears on Don Juan.

[CrazyC83]

Be careful what you wish for though! Is this capable of bombing out like Bret or Celia?

[HockleyBob]

Hello all,

I have a small farm in NW Harris County. I've been following this board for a few years, but only recently joined. This recent (last year) drought has been devastating. i can only hope that we see a significant rain event out of this one. Although the ground is so dry that a short heavy rain event will result in flash flooding and all of the grief that that brings. If we get any wind we could see major tree damage. The trees are brittle and will snap like toothpicks.

Well keep up the good work keeping us interested lurkers informed.

Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.

(John Adams, Dec 1770)

HockleyBob

[WmE]

Recon is reporting lightning. This is interesting...

Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Thunderstorm(s)

Ha the last time I saw lightning mentioned by the HH was in Chris 2006.

[TexasF6]

I see in recon discussion a post from DT about 45knots at the surface, 50kts FL Level??? Can anyone else verify???

[StormClouds63]

[quote="SunnyThoughts"]Well I expect watches to go out with this next package. Anyone care to guess where? Most of the Texas Gulf coast region I would assume?[/quote

Northern Mexico to Sabine Pass for the watch area?

[hurricanefloyd5]

I see in recon discussion a post from DT about 45knots at the surface, 50kts FL Level??? Can anyone else verify???

45kts is 50mph at the surface

[SunnyThoughts]

I see in recon discussion a post from DT about 45knots at the surface, 50kts FL Level??? Can anyone else verify???

I believe there was a 50 knot FL level reading...I also believe it was flagged. We will probably get at least one more pass through the center though, so maybe if it is a true reading..we'll get another reading of that magnitude.