ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Battlebrick]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 17:27Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 17
A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 17:02:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°23'N 63°33'W (17.3833N 63.55W)
B. Center Fix Location: 180 miles (289 km) to the ESE (113°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,412m (4,633ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 43kts (~ 49.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the WSW (251°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 33° at 40kts (From the NNE at ~ 46.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 36 nautical miles (41 statute miles) to the WNW (301°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 999mb (29.50 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,530m (5,020ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,519m (4,984ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph) in the northeast quadrant at 15:44:20Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the SSW (194°) from the flight level center

[Hurricaneman]

Wow, 999 is pretty strong for this point in the game

[bexar]

does it seem like the convection is waning a bit?

[ConvergenceZone]

The good news is that a track to the north of the islands would not only be good news for the larger islands but would also increase the chance of a recurve, once the troughs start to influence it...

Not likely to recurve Frank, same set-up as Hugo/Hazel...though granted the latter is a different time of year, but broadly same pattern...

I've been saying this for a while, but I'd say odds of a recurve are much lower then normal, maybe 10% chance against a 90% of a US landfall...

Its bad news because instead of a 50-70kts system, you get a 100-120kts system making landfall...

By the way, ask anyone, I'm normally very gung ho on recurves, I don't think I've ever been so agressive on the idea of a system making landfall...at least not since 2008!

I think Frank might be on to something. I too thought the HIGH would be too strong, but a MET just posted on the models board that there's as much of a chance of it hitting the US as there is of it missing the US altogether.... I think this is the first time I've heard a MET mention a possible recurve out to sea.

[brunota2003]

Dang near dead center with that dropsonde:

999mb (29.50 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 26.6°C (79.9°F) 25.3°C (77.5°F) 135° (from the SE) 3 knots (3 mph)

[KWT]

I think Frank might be on to something. I too thought the HIGH would be strong, but a MET just posted on the models board that there's as much of a chance of it hitting the US as there is of it missing the US altogether.... I think this is the first time I've heard a MET mention a possible recurve out to sea.

Possibly, but at this stage I wouldn't bank on one or two lesser models going for a recurve...early days still I grant you but CMC has a slight right bias, HWRf has a HUGE right bias...soooo....

Looking better for now, motion due west right now looking at the loops.

[gatorcane]

Guys I will say that there were many that thought IKE would recurve east of Florida, but look what happened.

Just saying......

[CrazyC83]

At least now we have the real pressure.

[tolakram]

Final

[Evil Jeremy]

Guys I will say that there were many that thought IKE would recurve east of Florida, but look what happened.

Just saying......

So was Francess if I remember correctly...

EDIT: Nope, just looked at Frances' cones. I remembered wrong lol.

[brunota2003]

Dropsonde:

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 17:31Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 18

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 17Z on the 21st day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 17.4N 63.5W
Location: 182 miles (294 km) to the ESE (113°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Marsden Square: 043 (About)

Level   Geo. Height   Air Temp.   Dew Point   Wind Direction   Wind Speed
999mb (29.50 inHg)   Sea Level (Surface)   26.6°C (79.9°F)   25.3°C (77.5°F)   135° (from the SE)   3 knots (3 mph)
1000mb   -13m (-43 ft)   Other data not available.
925mb   675m (2,215 ft)   23.4°C (74.1°F)   21.8°C (71.2°F)   30° (from the NNE)   2 knots (2 mph)
850mb   1,415m (4,642 ft)   21.4°C (70.5°F)   Approximately 14°C (57°F)   225° (from the SW)   3 knots (3 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 17:02Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...

Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.

Splash Location: 17.37N 63.55W
Splash Time: 17:03Z

Release Location: 17.37N 63.55W
Release Time: 17:02:02Z

Splash Location: 17.38N 63.55W
Splash Time: 17:02:53Z

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 150° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 1 knots (1 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 843mb to 998mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 154 gpm - 4 gpm (505 geo. feet - 13 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 135° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 3 knots (3 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802

Part B: Data For Significant Levels...

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level   Air Temperature   Dew Point
999mb (Surface)   26.6°C (79.9°F)   25.3°C (77.5°F)
961mb   24.2°C (75.6°F)   23.8°C (74.8°F)
850mb   21.4°C (70.5°F)   Approximately 14°C (57°F)
843mb   20.4°C (68.7°F)   Approximately 12°C (54°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level   Wind Direction   Wind Speed
999mb (Surface)   135° (from the SE)   3 knots (3 mph)
857mb   225° (from the SW)   2 knots (2 mph)
843mb   225° (from the SW)   5 knots (6 mph)


VDM:

000
URNT12 KNHC 211727
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 21/17:02:00Z
B. 17 deg 23 min N
063 deg 33 min W
C. 850 mb 1412 m
D. 43 kt
E. 251 deg 8 nm
F. 033 deg 40 kt
G. 301 deg 36 nm
H. 999 mb
I. 15 C / 1530 m
J. 21 C / 1519 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF300 0209A IRENE OB 17
MAX FL WIND 56 KT NE QUAD 15:44:20Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C 194 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

Last RECCO Report:

000
URNT11 KNHC 211729
97779 17260 10175 64800 09500 04042 19//9 /9761
40530
RMK AF300 0209A IRENE OB 19
SWS = 29 KTS
LAST REPORT
;

[Battlebrick]

perfect dropsonde drop, confirms the 999mb.

[tolakram]

From recon thread, 999MB vs forecast track.

[RL3AO]

6C temp difference

[cycloneye]

Aric,I have to give you all the credit for sticking with the west of St Kitts center and now is confirmed.

[vacanechaser]

Final

looks to be tracking north of the forecast points in that image above



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[dmbthestone]

Funny how quick things change. Yesterday everyone was talking about GOM and now we're talking bout it missing Fl to the east.

[KWT]

Its quite clear looking at the loops where the center is, perfectly clear we have a strengthening system, very likely will be a 75-85kts system by Hispaniola if this trend continues.

[Scorpion]

Should really go to town now, hurricane for PR looks pretty likely.

[brunota2003]

From recon thread, 999MB vs forecast track.

http://img855.imageshack.us/img855/5158/zplotw.png

Also, remember the other VDMs all missed the center.