ATL: IRENE - Models

[clfenwi]

Canadian keeps it just off-shore at 120h:

[SFLcane]

Its really something to see the GFS/EURO in such agreement. If it can avoid land as the GFS and HWRF suggest SFL may have a formidable hurricane in there back yard next week.

[TBCaneFreak]

Concensus by the best models cannot get any better than this tonight.
If they continue like this through the next 24 hrs, Miami & the rest of SE FL is going to be a chaos Monday morning.
The NHC will have no option to but to go more aggressive with its strength forecast.

In reallity this will be a mess for the entire peninsula if it pans out. Odds are most of state would recieve copious amounts of rain and wind gusting above hurricane strength well along its path...Start bringing in the patio furniture

[ConvergenceZone]

Wasn't there a met on tonight that said it's reasonable to think that Irene could pass to the east of Florida entirely? Would than mean miss the USA entirely?

[SFLcane]

00z GFS ensembles...

[Tampa_God]

Funny how the models have this becoming a rainmaker for the Southeast like 1964 Dora but has it on a track like the 1964 Cleo.

[clfenwi]

00Z HWRF looks to have shifted right... through 48 hours landfall in the Dominican Republic.

http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/hwrf/irene09l.2011082100/irene09l.2011082100_anim.html#picture

[TBCaneFreak]

Wasn't there a met on tonight that said it's reasonable to think that Irene could pass to the east of Florida entirely? Would than mean miss the USA entirely?

I believe he said that the model run possibly missing the state entirely seemed plauseable, with the set up the GFS was runnin on the 00z run

[Ivanhater]

Just FYI...looking over the guidance tonight there is an increasing chance this misses Florida to the east putting South Florida on the weaker side and hitting Georgia or the Carolinas

[Aric Dunn]

well if the current trend with the center relocation/movement.... a track right down the spine of Hispaniola is looking more possible now..as well as just north along the coast.

[ConvergenceZone]

Wasn't there a met on tonight that said it's reasonable to think that Irene could pass to the east of Florida entirely? Would than mean miss the USA entirely?

I believe he said that the model run possibly missing the state entirely seemed plauseable, with the set up the GFS was runnin on the 00z run

Ahh okay thanks for clarifying. I wonder though if the models continue to shift east if it's possible for Irene to miss the USA entirely? I know it's early to say that, but it has me wondering.....

[bella_may]

When does the gfdl and the new euro run come out?

[jinftl]

Or at least miss Florida...not sure about areas up the coast from us though

Wasn't there a met on tonight that said it's reasonable to think that Irene could pass to the east of Florida entirely? Would than mean miss the USA entirely?

I believe he said that the model run possibly missing the state entirely seemed plauseable, with the set up the GFS was runnin on the 00z run

Ahh okay thanks for clarifying. I wonder though if the models continue to shift east if it's possible for Irene to miss the USA entirely? I know it's early to say that, but it has me wondering.....

[psyclone]

Concensus by the best models cannot get any better than this tonight.
If they continue like this through the next 24 hrs, Miami & the rest of SE FL is going to be a chaos Monday morning.
The NHC will have no option to but to go more aggressive with its strength forecast.

In reallity this will be a mess for the entire peninsula if it pans out. Odds are most of state would recieve copious amounts of rain and wind gusting above hurricane strength well along its path...Start bringing in the patio furniture

if the storm scrapes along the east coast there's a good chance the west side of the state would get very little.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TBCaneFreak]

Just FYI...looking over the guidance tonight there is an increasing chance this misses Florida to the east putting South Florida on the weaker side and hitting Georgia or the Carolinas

3 hours ago we were ready to shift everything west....lets not fall for the flipping....

[bucman1]

If.iGFS VERIFIED ON EAST COST WHAT MIGHT WEATHER BE ON WEST COAST OF FLORIDA?

[jinftl]

Keep in mind, as the NHC noted in the 11pm Discussion:

GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...THIS IS
A GOOD TIME TO REMIND USERS THAT THE AVERAGE DAY 4 AND 5 NHC TRACK
FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 250 MILES.

Just FYI...looking over the guidance tonight there is an increasing chance this misses Florida to the east putting South Florida on the weaker side and hitting Georgia or the Carolinas

3 hours ago we were ready to shift everything west....lets not fall for the flipping....

[SFLcane]

well if the current trend with the center relocation/movement.... a track right down the spine of Hispaniola is looking more possible now..as well as just north along the coast.

GFS seems to suggest this.

[Aric Dunn]

well if the current trend with the center relocation/movement.... a track right down the spine of Hispaniola is looking more possible now..as well as just north along the coast.

GFS seems to suggest this.

I meant along the north coast of hispaniola .

[artist]

Euro starts running in about an hour?