ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MARIA - Recon

#2081 Postby Macrocane » Sat Sep 10, 2011 11:18 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 110414
AF307 0514A MARIA HDOB 44 20110911
040430 1959N 06152W 8431 01575 //// +172 //// 104048 049 041 000 05
040500 2000N 06154W 8429 01578 //// +171 //// 102048 048 040 000 05
040530 2001N 06156W 8425 01581 //// +175 //// 104048 049 041 000 05
040600 2001N 06158W 8433 01572 //// +178 //// 103046 047 042 001 01
040630 2002N 06200W 8428 01581 //// +180 //// 105042 045 042 000 05
040700 2003N 06202W 8429 01577 //// +182 //// 107039 040 042 000 05
040730 2004N 06204W 8431 01577 //// +178 //// 104039 040 041 001 05
040800 2005N 06206W 8429 01580 //// +178 //// 103039 040 042 000 05
040830 2005N 06208W 8430 01577 //// +174 //// 105041 041 041 002 01
040900 2006N 06209W 8429 01580 //// +170 //// 104042 042 041 001 01
040930 2007N 06211W 8429 01577 //// +170 //// 106043 044 043 001 01
041000 2008N 06213W 8430 01577 //// +164 //// 104046 047 042 001 01
041030 2009N 06215W 8430 01576 //// +162 //// 105047 047 041 000 05
041100 2010N 06217W 8429 01578 //// +163 //// 105048 048 040 002 05
041130 2010N 06219W 8429 01580 //// +161 //// 105050 050 039 000 05
041200 2011N 06221W 8428 01581 //// +165 //// 103048 049 039 000 05
041230 2012N 06223W 8430 01580 //// +162 //// 102050 050 039 000 05
041300 2013N 06225W 8432 01578 //// +161 //// 101050 050 038 000 05
041330 2014N 06227W 8428 01583 //// +161 //// 100049 050 038 000 01
041400 2015N 06229W 8424 01585 //// +156 //// 095048 051 039 000 01
$$
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#2082 Postby artist » Sat Sep 10, 2011 11:20 pm

a vortex was found -
000
URNT12 KNHC 110404
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142011
A. 11/03:21:40Z
B. 18 deg 26 min N
062 deg 58 min W
C. 850 mb 1469 m
D. 24 kt
E. 174 deg 15 nm
F. 202 deg 19 kt
G. 178 deg 40 nm
H. 1007 mb
I. 19 C / 1523 m
J. 19 C / 1526 m
K. 19 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 08
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 0514A MARIA OB 17
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 58 KT NE QUAD 03:52:40Z
FREQ LTG NE QUAD.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Recon

#2083 Postby artist » Sat Sep 10, 2011 11:26 pm

Image
thru 44
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#2084 Postby Adoquín » Sat Sep 10, 2011 11:29 pm

60 mph at surface?
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Recon

#2085 Postby Macrocane » Sat Sep 10, 2011 11:33 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 110429
AF307 0514A MARIA HDOB 45 20110911
041430 2016N 06231W 8440 01569 //// +160 //// 091050 053 039 000 05
041500 2016N 06233W 8426 01583 //// +162 //// 096053 054 037 000 01
041530 2017N 06235W 8433 01577 //// +166 //// 100053 054 036 000 05
041600 2018N 06237W 8429 01580 //// +163 //// 100053 054 036 000 05
041630 2019N 06239W 8429 01582 //// +158 //// 098054 055 036 000 05
041700 2020N 06241W 8430 01580 //// +160 //// 095053 054 035 000 05
041730 2021N 06243W 8429 01580 //// +159 //// 095052 053 036 000 01
041800 2022N 06245W 8435 01576 //// +155 //// 097054 054 035 000 01
041830 2022N 06247W 8430 01580 //// +156 //// 097053 054 035 000 05
041900 2023N 06249W 8430 01581 //// +157 //// 097052 053 037 000 05
041930 2024N 06251W 8430 01581 //// +156 //// 098053 054 036 000 05
042000 2025N 06253W 8428 01583 //// +156 //// 100052 053 036 000 05
042030 2026N 06255W 8427 01583 //// +154 //// 100052 053 037 000 05
042100 2027N 06257W 8430 01581 //// +154 //// 100051 052 036 000 05
042130 2028N 06259W 8429 01580 //// +157 //// 104054 055 033 000 05
042200 2030N 06259W 8431 01578 //// +150 //// 103050 051 031 000 05
042230 2031N 06300W 8434 01577 //// +151 //// 105049 051 030 000 01
042300 2033N 06300W 8430 01583 //// +157 //// 104050 050 030 000 01
042330 2035N 06300W 8431 01581 //// +152 //// 102048 050 030 000 01
042400 2037N 06301W 8436 01578 //// +148 //// 100050 051 /// /// 05
$$
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Re:

#2086 Postby artist » Sat Sep 10, 2011 11:36 pm

Adoquín wrote:60 mph at surface?

that was actually earlier in the flight and hadn't been posted yet. Yes, with the reduction, that is about right, I believe.
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#2087 Postby Adoquín » Sat Sep 10, 2011 11:41 pm

plus 18.4 N and 63 W, I believe. Can't read the forward speed or direction of the vortex. It seems to me the vortex is west of the axis of the ull to the north but I do not know. If that were to happen won't venting action start at that point?
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#2088 Postby artist » Sat Sep 10, 2011 11:43 pm

URNT11 KNHC 110406
97779 03580 10198 61608 15300 11056 15//9 /2500
RMK AF307 0514A MARIA OB 19
SWS = 49 KTS
.......................
decoded
Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 11th day of the month at 04:06Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number: 14
Storm Name: Maria (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 19

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Sunday, 3:58Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 19.8N 61.6W
Location: 307 miles (494 km) to the ENE (72°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 1,530 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 110° at 56 knots (From the ESE at ~ 64.4 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 15°C
Flight Level Dew Point: Not available, probably because the dew point hygrometer was not working.
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Thunderstorm(s)
850 mb Surface Altitude: 1,500 geopotential meters

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 49 knots (~ 56.4mph)
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Recon

#2089 Postby Macrocane » Sat Sep 10, 2011 11:49 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 110446
AF307 0514A MARIA HDOB 47 20110911
043430 2006N 06303W 8430 01565 //// +170 //// 084035 036 035 000 05
043500 2004N 06303W 8429 01566 //// +170 //// 088039 041 036 000 05
043530 2002N 06303W 8429 01566 //// +170 //// 091037 038 034 000 01
043600 2001N 06303W 8429 01566 //// +169 //// 091036 037 037 000 05
043630 1959N 06303W 8428 01566 //// +170 //// 090038 039 036 000 01
043700 1957N 06303W 8429 01565 //// +167 //// 088035 036 038 000 05
043730 1956N 06303W 8428 01564 //// +163 //// 087035 036 039 000 05
043800 1954N 06303W 8436 01557 //// +156 //// 084032 033 039 003 01
043830 1952N 06303W 8429 01561 //// +162 //// 084033 033 038 002 01
043900 1951N 06303W 8428 01561 //// +168 //// 084035 035 039 003 01
043930 1949N 06303W 8429 01559 //// +173 //// 085035 035 040 002 05
044000 1947N 06303W 8426 01559 //// +172 //// 085037 041 040 001 01
044030 1946N 06303W 8432 01554 //// +175 //// 084048 049 038 001 05
044100 1944N 06303W 8429 01554 //// +176 //// 084050 051 038 001 05
044130 1942N 06303W 8433 01548 //// +171 //// 085048 049 037 001 05
044200 1941N 06303W 8429 01552 //// +177 //// 084046 048 039 000 05
044230 1939N 06303W 8430 01548 //// +181 //// 087044 045 038 000 05
044300 1937N 06303W 8429 01550 //// +174 //// 087043 044 040 000 05
044330 1936N 06303W 8433 01544 //// +170 //// 091048 049 039 000 05
044400 1934N 06303W 8429 01548 //// +170 //// 096050 051 042 000 05
$$
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Recon

#2090 Postby artist » Sat Sep 10, 2011 11:54 pm

Image
thru 47
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Re:

#2091 Postby artist » Sat Sep 10, 2011 11:56 pm

Adoquín wrote:plus 18.4 N and 63 W, I believe. Can't read the forward speed or direction of the vortex. It seems to me the vortex is west of the axis of the ull to the north but I do not know. If that were to happen won't venting action start at that point?

in the recon thread I went back and posted the decoding of the vortex observation. It might answer a couple of your questions. The rest I have don't know enough to be able to answer for you. Sorry about that.
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#2092 Postby artist » Sat Sep 10, 2011 11:59 pm

here is the latest for you -

TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
0300 UTC SUN SEP 11 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 62.9W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT
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#2093 Postby Adoquín » Sat Sep 10, 2011 11:59 pm

the UUL was at 64W at 8 pm as per the discussion. This is my guess as to the sudden change in Maria.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2094 Postby artist » Sun Sep 11, 2011 12:04 am

yeah, here is a current water vapor image -
Image
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#2095 Postby artist » Sun Sep 11, 2011 12:05 am

anyone have the latest models?
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#2096 Postby Adoquín » Sun Sep 11, 2011 12:07 am

I wonder if that vortex will be able to sneak under it..
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#2097 Postby artist » Sun Sep 11, 2011 12:11 am

definitely an interesting setup.
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#2098 Postby artist » Sun Sep 11, 2011 12:15 am

URNT15 KNHC 110454
AF307 0514A MARIA HDOB 48 20110911
044430 1933N 06303W 8428 01546 //// +166 //// 096054 055 042 000 05
044500 1931N 06303W 8431 01539 //// +167 //// 091055 057 042 001 01
044530 1929N 06303W 8432 01538 //// +163 //// 086054 055 043 002 01
044600 1928N 06303W 8432 01538 //// +167 //// 087055 056 042 000 01
044630 1926N 06303W 8429 01541 //// +166 //// 087055 055 043 002 05
044700 1925N 06303W 8429 01539 //// +167 //// 088051 053 043 002 05
044730 1923N 06303W 8428 01538 //// +167 //// 095046 047 041 001 05
044800 1921N 06303W 8432 01535 //// +172 //// 099044 044 042 000 05
044830 1920N 06303W 8430 01536 //// +179 //// 098045 045 045 000 05
044900 1918N 06303W 8431 01531 //// +174 //// 095051 052 046 000 05
044930 1917N 06303W 8426 01537 //// +173 //// 092052 052 047 001 05
045000 1915N 06303W 8430 01530 //// +176 //// 091048 049 044 001 05
045030 1914N 06303W 8433 01526 //// +176 //// 091047 049 043 000 05
045100 1912N 06303W 8429 01528 //// +177 //// 089043 045 039 001 05
045130 1910N 06303W 8429 01526 //// +187 //// 085045 046 036 001 05
045200 1909N 06303W 8426 01527 //// +187 //// 085041 042 036 000 05
045230 1907N 06303W 8432 01521 //// +188 //// 083037 039 036 000 05
045300 1905N 06303W 8429 01524 //// +194 //// 081027 028 034 000 01
045330 1904N 06303W 8428 01525 //// +183 //// 072024 027 035 000 01
045400 1902N 06303W 8427 01525 //// +183 //// 074021 022 036 001 01
$$
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Recon

#2099 Postby artist » Sun Sep 11, 2011 12:15 am

Image
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Recon

#2100 Postby Macrocane » Sun Sep 11, 2011 12:17 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 110514
AF307 0514A MARIA HDOB 50 20110911
050430 1833N 06319W 8436 01520 //// +195 //// 007007 008 /// /// 05
050500 1834N 06320W 8425 01531 //// +196 //// 035005 007 007 000 05
050530 1835N 06321W 8429 01527 //// +201 //// 033008 009 012 000 01
050600 1836N 06323W 8431 01525 //// +202 //// 028014 017 013 000 01
050630 1836N 06323W 8431 01525 //// +204 //// 020017 018 024 000 01
050700 1838N 06325W 8432 01524 //// +200 //// 019020 020 023 000 01
050730 1840N 06326W 8428 01526 //// +191 //// 029021 022 021 000 05
050800 1841N 06327W 8433 01521 //// +190 //// 033023 023 029 000 05
050830 1842N 06328W 8429 01526 //// +189 //// 032022 022 035 000 05
050900 1843N 06329W 8428 01526 //// +188 //// 040025 027 036 000 01
050930 1844N 06331W 8433 01521 //// +190 //// 044029 030 034 000 01
051000 1845N 06332W 8429 01527 //// +188 //// 045032 033 034 000 01
051030 1847N 06333W 8432 01525 //// +189 //// 049037 039 034 000 05
051100 1848N 06334W 8430 01527 //// +183 //// 051038 039 034 000 01
051130 1849N 06335W 8428 01530 //// +181 //// 052033 035 034 000 05
051200 1850N 06337W 8430 01531 //// +186 //// 051028 028 034 000 01
051230 1851N 06338W 8432 01528 //// +189 //// 054028 030 035 000 01
051300 1853N 06339W 8429 01532 //// +187 //// 055029 030 036 000 05
051330 1854N 06340W 8430 01531 //// +185 //// 058031 032 036 000 01
051400 1855N 06341W 8431 01531 //// +185 //// 057033 034 037 000 05
$$
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