ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[JtSmarts]

Not sure where DT got his info from but...

David Tollerisposted toStorm2k.org Only group members can see this post
FOLKS this is TS DON ... max flight level winds 50 knots SFMR found surface winds 45 knots

This is what he posted on FB.

Is that the same DT who used to post here years back?

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 272048
AF300 01DDA INVEST HDOB 24 20110727
203800 2125N 08625W 9765 00293 0102 +207 +161 162025 026 031 009 03
203830 2124N 08624W 9779 00281 0099 +220 +158 163026 028 031 009 00
203900 2124N 08622W 9764 00295 0101 +220 +154 168026 026 031 008 00
203930 2124N 08621W 9771 00290 0102 +222 +151 174029 031 030 008 03
204000 2123N 08619W 9769 00293 0104 +222 +148 175029 030 033 007 00
204030 2123N 08618W 9769 00294 0104 +222 +146 175028 030 030 008 00
204100 2122N 08616W 9772 00290 0105 +219 +144 177028 029 029 009 00
204130 2122N 08615W 9776 00290 0109 +203 +143 171023 026 038 014 03
204200 2121N 08613W 9773 00293 0110 +195 +143 169021 023 034 017 03
204230 2121N 08612W 9774 00290 0111 +191 +142 164024 026 039 018 00
204300 2120N 08610W 9767 00298 0109 +206 +140 156024 024 036 013 03
204330 2120N 08609W 9771 00294 0109 +190 +139 151024 025 045 017 03
204400 2121N 08608W 9770 00293 0107 +188 +140 157030 032 /// /// 03
204430 2122N 08609W 9768 00296 0109 +190 +140 155030 031 /// /// 03
204500 2123N 08610W 9778 00285 0109 +191 +140 160031 033 033 015 03
204530 2124N 08612W 9772 00293 0109 +189 +139 167027 028 042 018 00
204600 2125N 08613W 9761 00301 0109 +189 +138 160028 030 041 014 00
204630 2126N 08614W 9774 00292 0109 +201 +137 167024 024 033 011 00
204700 2128N 08616W 9766 00296 0107 +207 +138 166026 028 029 011 00
204730 2129N 08617W 9778 00284 0107 +197 +139 166029 031 033 011 00
$$
;

42 kt SFMR.

[TexasF6]

thank you floyd, I knew this, but is it official?? i have not seen a VDM yet....I know the NHC is hopping now with doing a package for 4pm/5pm!

I see in recon discussion a post from DT about 45knots at the surface, 50kts FL Level??? Can anyone else verify???

45kts is 50mph at the surface

[TexasF6]

I see in recon discussion a post from DT about 45knots at the surface, 50kts FL Level??? Can anyone else verify???

[artist]

Tropical Storm DON Public Advisory
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2053.shtml

[butch]

000
WTNT24 KNHC 272052
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
2100 UTC WED JUL 27 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DON.
WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRE FOR PORTIONS OF THE
TEXAS COAST TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 87.0W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 87.0W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 86.8W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.1N 88.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 24.5N 90.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 25.8N 92.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 27.1N 94.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 29.0N 99.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 35NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 31.0N 103.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 87.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



TROPICAL STORM DON DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
400 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FOUND A CLOSED
SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB. THE
MAXIMUM 1000 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 45 KT EAST OF THE CENTER...
AND THERE WERE SEVERAL RELIABLE-LOOKING SMFR SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES
OF 35 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE SYSTEM IS DESIGNATED AS TROPICAL
STORM DON. THE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS
ELONGATED...AND IT IS POSSIBLE SOME REFORMATION OF THE CENTER COULD
OCCUR TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTIVE BURSTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/10. DON IS SOUTH OF
A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE STORM. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST
THAT WITHIN 24 HR DON WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT SHOULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
EVOLUTION SHOULD STEER THE STORM GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD. WHILE
THE MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE ON WHERE DON WILL REACH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST. THE
GFDL AND GFS ARE FARTHEST TO THE RIGHT...CLOSER TO THE HOUSTON/
GALVESTON AREA. THE UKMET/ECMWF ARE FARTHEST TO THE LEFT...CLOSER
TO THE BROWNSVILLE AREA. THE FORECAST TRACK LIES BETWEEN THESE
EXTREMES AND IS CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.

DON IS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE
GLOBAL MODELS FOR THE MOST PART FORECAST LIGHT TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT 72 HR. DESPITE
THIS...NONE OF THOSE MODELS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF
THE STORM...AND NEITHER DOES THE GFDL. THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND HWRF
MODELS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO REACH 55-65 KT BEFORE LANDFALL IN
TEXAS...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 48 HR
INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS WELL BEFORE LANDFALL...AND DON COULD GET
STRONGER THAN THIS BETWEEN 48-72 HR.

WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
TEXAS COAST TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 22.2N 87.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 23.1N 88.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 24.5N 90.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 25.8N 92.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 27.1N 94.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 29.0N 99.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/1800Z 31.0N 103.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[artist]

it is now official TS DOn see link above

[nicole]

We now have TS Don!!

[Alacane2]

It seems that recently, the NHC is waiting longer to upgrade systems. This is the third time this season that a tropical storm will not have been warned on as a depression prior to being named. Also the last two storms from last year were not warned on as depressions.

[drezee]

I have half my office on this site now...the servers are going to blow if this thing gets upgraded!

Per recon, the pressure fall is real. Physics wouldn't allow a 14 mb pressure difference from Buoy 42003 and only have 35mph winds.

Do I know this board or what!!??!??

[RL3AO]

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 48 HR
INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS WELL BEFORE LANDFALL...AND DON COULD GET
STRONGER THAN THIS BETWEEN 48-72 HR.

Thats an important note from NHC. Thats basically them saying if they had a 60 hr forecast point it would be 60 or 65kt.

[BeachBumJen]

Hello all,

I have a small farm in NW Harris County. I've been following this board for a few years, but only recently joined. This recent (last year) drought has been devastating. i can only hope that we see a significant rain event out of this one. Although the ground is so dry that a short heavy rain event will result in flash flooding and all of the grief that that brings. If we get any wind we could see major tree damage. The trees are brittle and will snap like toothpicks.

Well keep up the good work keeping us interested lurkers informed.

Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.

(John Adams, Dec 1770)

HockleyBob

Know what ya mean Bob....I'm right off kickapoo Rd. We need this Storm!

[nicole]

Pressure 1001mb

[drezee]

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 48 HR
INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS WELL BEFORE LANDFALL...AND DON COULD GET
STRONGER THAN THIS BETWEEN 48-72 HR.

Thats an important note from NHC. Thats basically them saying if they had a 60 hr forecast point it would be 60 or 65kt.

Indeed, if I were in TX I would be preparing for the landfall of a hurricane.

[tropicwatch]

At 20:45GMT the hurricane hunter reported: 42 knots (~ 48.3 mph)

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 272058
AF300 01DDA INVEST HDOB 25 20110727
204800 2130N 08618W 9769 00292 0104 +212 +139 161031 032 029 008 03
204830 2131N 08620W 9769 00293 0103 +217 +139 157030 032 028 008 03
204900 2133N 08621W 9768 00292 0101 +217 +139 156030 030 029 008 00
204930 2134N 08622W 9774 00284 0102 +210 +139 152030 031 034 009 00
205000 2135N 08624W 9769 00290 0102 +214 +139 152029 030 032 009 03
205030 2137N 08625W 9774 00287 0101 +219 +140 162026 027 033 006 00
205100 2138N 08626W 9770 00288 0101 +220 +141 168028 029 028 008 00
205130 2139N 08628W 9772 00285 0099 +227 +142 172031 033 029 008 03
205200 2140N 08629W 9783 00279 0102 +220 +143 169031 032 033 010 03
205230 2142N 08630W 9768 00292 0101 +212 +143 165030 030 038 011 00
205300 2143N 08632W 9767 00293 0099 +219 +143 159026 029 037 007 03
205330 2144N 08633W 9772 00283 0097 +217 +144 159024 024 036 009 00
205400 2145N 08634W 9767 00292 0099 +208 +146 158023 024 032 011 03
205430 2147N 08636W 9769 00285 0098 +209 +148 159026 027 034 009 00
205500 2148N 08637W 9774 00283 0099 +209 +149 171026 027 033 018 03
205530 2149N 08638W 9760 00298 0101 +198 +149 180024 025 045 028 03
205600 2150N 08640W 9777 00279 0100 +188 +148 195027 029 056 036 03
205630 2151N 08641W 9767 00288 0100 +184 +146 191032 032 /// /// 03
205700 2153N 08642W 9771 00283 0099 +182 +143 191034 036 /// /// 03
205730 2154N 08643W 9771 00284 0098 +183 +140 193037 038 035 024 00
$$
;

[Jevo]

Well there goes your drought buster Texans... Heres for hopes of a big wet TS for ya

[Stormcenter]

The NHC track is right in the middle of the TX coastline which is basically a split of the model consensus. Their forecast is giving a lot a weight to the EURO otherwise the projected track would be more toward the upper TX coastline.

[fci]

It seems that recently, the NHC is waiting longer to upgrade systems. This is the third time this season that a tropical storm will not have been warned on as a depression prior to being named. Also the last two storms from last year were not warned on as depressions.

Completely agree.
This is obviously a discussion for later and I will go back to lurking so those in Texas can have free reign, however; thus far early in the season, the NHC has been very slow to react and seems to be handcuffed in some way.
I have NEVER seen them stumble like this consistently as they have so far this season. Let's hope they don't appear to be so rudderless for long.
Back to lurking......good luck to those in Texas.

[HURAKAN]