ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[AdamFirst]

Why would the models initialize the western area when the eastern one seems to be the one in control?

[ROCK]

we are about to see a huge shift...

Yea looks out to sea per those 00z bams.

Don't trust the BAMs. They are some of the worst.

With the models starting with Blob West, we should see a decent west shift in the models now.

yeah the BAMS just give us a clue on track.....not to be taken to seriously....I just cant believe they initialized westward...that is so odd...

[colbroe]

Any thoughts on what is happening?

[HurricaneBrain]

Why would the models initialize the western area when the eastern one seems to be the one in control?

What makes you think the eastern one is in control?

[Aric Dunn]

thats not odd.. thats where there is a surface reflection.. east was MLC

[Evil Jeremy]

Is there going to be Gulfstream data in the 00z Globals?

[HurricaneBrain]

Any thoughts on what is happening?

BAM models are shifting the center to the western blob and more models may follow. No official TD yet, but that should come soon.

[AdamFirst]

Why would the models initialize the western area when the eastern one seems to be the one in control?

What makes you think the eastern one is in control?

Isn't that where the dominant MLC is? Since there is no LLC as of yet.

[SFLcane]

GFDI and a few other models clustered right of the SFL coastline.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/plots/91-googlemaps.shtml

[ozonepete]

Any thoughts on what is happening?

BAM models are shifting the center to the western blob and more models may follow. No official TD yet, but that should come soon.

How did you get that from the posted BAMS forecast track chart? Doesn't look like the western area to me.

[HurricaneBrain]

Why would the models initialize the western area when the eastern one seems to be the one in control?

What makes you think the eastern one is in control?

Isn't that where the dominant MLC is? Since there is no LLC as of yet.

Nothing is under that MLC. Looks good on the loop though.

[HurricaneBrain]

I honestly think either of the blobs can form a dominate LLC.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

we are about to see a huge shift...

Yea looks out to sea per those 00z bams.

Don't trust the BAMs. They are some of the worst.

With the models starting with Blob West, we should see a decent west shift in the models now.

Indeed, if I've learned anything this past decade of tropic watching it is never trust the BAMs unless they have support from other better regarded models.

[ROCK]

thats not odd.. thats where there is a surface reflection.. east was MLC

lets not split hairs Aric.. ..this whole structure is odd. The whole area is elongated with the best low level convergance attm is in the eastern blob...

[AdamFirst]

Why are we talking about 00z models when none of them have initialized yet?

Very confusing stuff.

[JPmia]

GFDI and a few other models clustered right of the SFL coastline.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/plots/91-googlemaps.shtml

nice link! .. goes right over Hispainola.. would there be anything left of it after the mountains?? lol

[otowntiger]

Graphic not showing 90L? TD?

That would be because 90L doesn't exist... It's 91L.

And no, I don't think we have an upgrade. This place would be the first to know!

Thanks for correcting me, this tropical weather has been getting to my head!

Well, your screen name is Hurricane Brain! Very fitting doncha think?

[SFLcane]

http://vmcluster.wright-weather.com/model_tracks.html

[Gustywind]

[otowntiger]

31/2345 UTC 14.3N 53.8W T1.5/1.5 91L -- Atlantic

bam models initialized at the other location..

still looking VERY 'recurvy' to me!