ATL: IRENE - Models

[TBCaneFreak]

If.iGFS VERIFIED ON EAST COST WHAT MIGHT WEATHER BE ON WEST COAST OF FLORIDA?

GFS run was into eastern Polk county...not offshore, so deprnds on windfield size. Of course west side is usually the drier side...If Irene has a 200mi windfiels of TS and 75 mi Hurricane wind, well some effects would occur

[WeatherEmperor]

Euro starts running in about an hour?

Correct. Also, the GFDL and HWRF should be finishing soon.

[SFLcane]

well if the current trend with the center relocation/movement.... a track right down the spine of Hispaniola is looking more possible now..as well as just north along the coast.

GFS seems to suggest this.

I meant along the north coast of hispaniola .

I can see it taking the northern edge of the cone and really intensiying as suggested by the HWRF. Of course not to cat10.

[HurricaneWarning92]

well if the current trend with the center relocation/movement.... a track right down the spine of Hispaniola is looking more possible now..as well as just north along the coast.

GFS seems to suggest this.

I meant along the north coast of hispaniola .

That would be bad because it wouldnt weaken much and intensify as it heads towards the east coast... or it might miss the U.S. who knows.

[psyclone]

If.iGFS VERIFIED ON EAST COST WHAT MIGHT WEATHER BE ON WEST COAST OF FLORIDA?

GFS run was into eastern Polk county...not offshore, so deprnds on windfield size. Of course west side is usually the drier side...If Irene has a 200mi windfiels of TS and 75 mi Hurricane wind, well some effects would occur

it wouldn't have that intensity or size at that point as the storm would have been overland for a very long time and significantly degraded wind wise. the quick and dirty answer is we probably wouldn't get much from it. a busy off shore breeze with showers. remember irene of 99? it was a non event here and that gfs solution would probably yield similar results.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ConvergenceZone]

Or at least miss Florida...not sure about areas up the coast from us though

yea, it would be quite something if after Irene went through the islands that it missed Florida to the east and then headed out to sea....Keep our fingers
crossed.... The solution is always possible.

[Tampa_God]

I can see it taking the northern edge of the cone and really intensiying as suggested by the HWRF. Of course not to cat10.

This is why I said I was going to wait a day before predicting where this thing goes. Too many factors working on the direction of this storm, trying to pinpoint a location 5 days out with Irene is pretty much impossible.

[clfenwi]

00Z HWRF. Last position is east of Melbourne FL


ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED HWRF HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM IRENE 09L

INITIAL TIME 0Z AUG 21

FORECAST POSITIONS (FROM STATS.SHORT FILE...)

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE MIN PRESS (hPa) MAX SFC WIND (KTS)

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -59.00 LAT: 14.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 45.00
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -60.80 LAT: 15.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 990.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 64.00
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -62.40 LAT: 15.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 985.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 68.00
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -64.00 LAT: 16.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 979.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 79.00
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -65.40 LAT: 16.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 975.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 85.00
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -66.80 LAT: 17.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 967.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 85.00
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -68.10 LAT: 17.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 963.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 91.00
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -69.10 LAT: 17.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 957.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 88.00
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -70.30 LAT: 18.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 962.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 84.00
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -71.60 LAT: 18.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 967.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 64.00
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -72.60 LAT: 19.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 970.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 75.00
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -73.10 LAT: 19.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 964.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 80.00
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -73.70 LAT: 20.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 960.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 88.00
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -74.40 LAT: 20.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 954.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 90.00
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -75.00 LAT: 21.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 950.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 89.00
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -75.60 LAT: 21.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 946.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 93.00
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -76.10 LAT: 22.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 941.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 104.00
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -76.80 LAT: 23.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 935.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 106.00
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -77.50 LAT: 24.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 934.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 105.00
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -78.20 LAT: 25.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 928.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 114.00
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -78.90 LAT: 26.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 924.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 115.00
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -79.50 LAT: 28.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 924.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 119.00
FORECAST RAN UNCOUPLED

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

[Kohlecane]

00Z HWRF. Last position is east of Melbourne FL


ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED HWRF HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM IRENE 09L

INITIAL TIME 0Z AUG 21

FORECAST POSITIONS (FROM STATS.SHORT FILE...)

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE MIN PRESS (hPa) MAX SFC WIND (KTS)

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -59.00 LAT: 14.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 45.00
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -60.80 LAT: 15.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 990.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 64.00
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -62.40 LAT: 15.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 985.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 68.00
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -64.00 LAT: 16.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 979.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 79.00
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -65.40 LAT: 16.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 975.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 85.00
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -66.80 LAT: 17.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 967.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 85.00
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -68.10 LAT: 17.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 963.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 91.00
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -69.10 LAT: 17.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 957.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 88.00
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -70.30 LAT: 18.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 962.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 84.00
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -71.60 LAT: 18.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 967.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 64.00
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -72.60 LAT: 19.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 970.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 75.00
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -73.10 LAT: 19.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 964.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 80.00
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -73.70 LAT: 20.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 960.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 88.00
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -74.40 LAT: 20.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 954.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 90.00
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -75.00 LAT: 21.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 950.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 89.00
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -75.60 LAT: 21.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 946.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 93.00
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -76.10 LAT: 22.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 941.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 104.00
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -76.80 LAT: 23.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 935.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 106.00
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -77.50 LAT: 24.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 934.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 105.00
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -78.20 LAT: 25.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 928.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 114.00
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -78.90 LAT: 26.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 924.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 115.00
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -79.50 LAT: 28.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 924.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 119.00
FORECAST RAN UNCOUPLED

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

gets it a bit strong there

[ConvergenceZone]

It does seem like east Florda seems like the best bet at this time but who knows.....The local weatherman just said that it's too early to determine if Irene will end up in the eastern Gulf, over the state of Florida, or miss the entire USA entirely. That just goes to show you how up in the air the direction is right now....

[Aric Dunn]

00Z HWRF. Last position is east of Melbourne FL


ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED HWRF HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM IRENE 09L

INITIAL TIME 0Z AUG 21

FORECAST POSITIONS (FROM STATS.SHORT FILE...)

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE MIN PRESS (hPa) MAX SFC WIND (KTS)

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -59.00 LAT: 14.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 45.00
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -60.80 LAT: 15.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 990.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 64.00
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -62.40 LAT: 15.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 985.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 68.00
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -64.00 LAT: 16.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 979.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 79.00
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -65.40 LAT: 16.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 975.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 85.00
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -66.80 LAT: 17.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 967.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 85.00
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -68.10 LAT: 17.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 963.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 91.00
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -69.10 LAT: 17.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 957.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 88.00
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -70.30 LAT: 18.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 962.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 84.00
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -71.60 LAT: 18.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 967.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 64.00
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -72.60 LAT: 19.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 970.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 75.00
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -73.10 LAT: 19.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 964.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 80.00
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -73.70 LAT: 20.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 960.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 88.00
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -74.40 LAT: 20.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 954.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 90.00
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -75.00 LAT: 21.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 950.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 89.00
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -75.60 LAT: 21.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 946.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 93.00
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -76.10 LAT: 22.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 941.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 104.00
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -76.80 LAT: 23.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 935.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 106.00
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -77.50 LAT: 24.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 934.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 105.00
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -78.20 LAT: 25.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 928.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 114.00
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -78.90 LAT: 26.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 924.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 115.00
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -79.50 LAT: 28.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 924.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 119.00
FORECAST RAN UNCOUPLED

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

gets it a bit strong there

and still heading nnw... towards the coast..

[HurricaneWarning92]

wow it may even miss Puerto Rico for all we know..

[SFLcane]

cmc 00z

[maxintensity]

nowhere to hide. east, west, north south. Won't matter much.

[clfenwi]

00Z HWRF wind swath

[ConvergenceZone]

:uarrow: wow it may even miss Puerto Rico for all we know..

You may be right. Looking at the maps. Missing Puerto Rico to the North would still put it in the forecasted cone, so it's possible. If it does miss Puerto Rico to the North, then it would probably miss Florida to the east as it curves around the peripheral of the high pressure system to the east. ...Still to early to determine if it would possibly miss the USA entirely though...It may be a close call... Be interesting to see what some of the pro mets think about it.

[Kohlecane]

00Z HWRF wind swath

[jinftl]

Now we need a set of models with the redeveloped center to the north factored in

200 AM AST SUN AUG 21 2011

...CENTER OF IRENE REDEVELOPS FARTHER NORTH...STORM STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 60.4W

[Aric Dunn]

Now we need a set of models with the redeveloped center to the north factored in

200 AM AST SUN AUG 21 2011

...CENTER OF IRENE REDEVELOPS FARTHER NORTH...STORM STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 60.4W

yep possibly north of hispaniola..

[clfenwi]

00Z GFDL

HOUR: .0 LONG: -59.11 LAT: 15.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.58 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 37.20
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -60.84 LAT: 15.32 MIN PRESS (hPa): 998.70 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 51.77
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -62.57 LAT: 15.68 MIN PRESS (hPa): 996.18 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 58.67
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -64.18 LAT: 16.24 MIN PRESS (hPa): 989.06 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 72.74
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -65.68 LAT: 16.49 MIN PRESS (hPa): 985.15 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 73.28
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -67.24 LAT: 16.84 MIN PRESS (hPa): 980.46 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 85.68
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -68.77 LAT: 17.06 MIN PRESS (hPa): 973.96 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 87.56
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -70.09 LAT: 17.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 966.18 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 90.72
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -71.37 LAT: 17.45 MIN PRESS (hPa): 954.23 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):102.06
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -72.82 LAT: 17.78 MIN PRESS (hPa): 958.33 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 93.05
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -74.06 LAT: 18.04 MIN PRESS (hPa): 961.99 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 91.66
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -75.07 LAT: 18.15 MIN PRESS (hPa): 953.72 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):106.89
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -75.98 LAT: 18.28 MIN PRESS (hPa): 944.21 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):117.18
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -76.89 LAT: 18.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 947.31 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):110.11
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -77.73 LAT: 18.69 MIN PRESS (hPa): 948.27 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):111.05
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -78.47 LAT: 19.16 MIN PRESS (hPa): 946.01 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):111.51
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -79.27 LAT: 19.68 MIN PRESS (hPa): 936.40 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):121.80
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -80.20 LAT: 20.28 MIN PRESS (hPa): 933.73 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):127.21
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -81.19 LAT: 21.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 927.15 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):130.95
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -82.13 LAT: 21.71 MIN PRESS (hPa): 925.02 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):129.83
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -82.99 LAT: 22.37 MIN PRESS (hPa): 927.75 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):111.59
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -83.89 LAT: 23.06 MIN PRESS (hPa): 938.01 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):110.41