50
ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: ATL: MARIA - Recon
This is the missing 49:
000
URNT15 KNHC 110516
AF307 0514A MARIA HDOB 49 20110911
045430 1900N 06303W 8432 01521 //// +179 //// 088025 027 035 002 01
045500 1859N 06303W 8426 01526 //// +156 //// 092029 031 036 001 05
045530 1857N 06303W 8430 01521 //// +161 //// 087023 028 036 004 01
045600 1855N 06303W 8431 01520 //// +166 //// 082015 017 037 002 01
045630 1854N 06303W 8430 01522 //// +157 //// 075014 016 037 008 01
045700 1852N 06303W 8423 01527 //// +161 //// 091008 012 039 007 01
045730 1850N 06303W 8427 01521 //// +182 //// 142010 010 031 001 01
045800 1849N 06303W 8432 01517 //// +182 //// 146011 012 028 003 05
045830 1847N 06304W 8433 01515 //// +182 //// 150012 012 028 000 05
045900 1846N 06305W 8425 01525 //// +175 //// 151011 012 029 000 01
045930 1845N 06306W 8430 01522 //// +177 //// 145012 013 013 000 05
050000 1844N 06307W 8429 01524 //// +175 //// 133013 014 012 000 01
050030 1843N 06309W 8429 01525 //// +175 //// 124010 012 010 000 05
050100 1842N 06310W 8432 01522 //// +178 //// 136009 010 015 000 05
050130 1840N 06311W 8433 01520 //// +181 //// 166009 010 015 000 05
050200 1839N 06313W 8426 01527 //// +181 //// 136008 008 016 000 05
050230 1839N 06314W 8430 01522 //// +194 //// 135006 007 011 000 05
050300 1837N 06315W 8426 01527 //// +195 //// 084001 002 012 000 01
050330 1836N 06316W 8432 01522 //// +198 //// 006002 003 009 000 05
050400 1835N 06317W 8430 01526 //// +196 //// 347004 006 008 000 05
$$
;
000
URNT15 KNHC 110516
AF307 0514A MARIA HDOB 49 20110911
045430 1900N 06303W 8432 01521 //// +179 //// 088025 027 035 002 01
045500 1859N 06303W 8426 01526 //// +156 //// 092029 031 036 001 05
045530 1857N 06303W 8430 01521 //// +161 //// 087023 028 036 004 01
045600 1855N 06303W 8431 01520 //// +166 //// 082015 017 037 002 01
045630 1854N 06303W 8430 01522 //// +157 //// 075014 016 037 008 01
045700 1852N 06303W 8423 01527 //// +161 //// 091008 012 039 007 01
045730 1850N 06303W 8427 01521 //// +182 //// 142010 010 031 001 01
045800 1849N 06303W 8432 01517 //// +182 //// 146011 012 028 003 05
045830 1847N 06304W 8433 01515 //// +182 //// 150012 012 028 000 05
045900 1846N 06305W 8425 01525 //// +175 //// 151011 012 029 000 01
045930 1845N 06306W 8430 01522 //// +177 //// 145012 013 013 000 05
050000 1844N 06307W 8429 01524 //// +175 //// 133013 014 012 000 01
050030 1843N 06309W 8429 01525 //// +175 //// 124010 012 010 000 05
050100 1842N 06310W 8432 01522 //// +178 //// 136009 010 015 000 05
050130 1840N 06311W 8433 01520 //// +181 //// 166009 010 015 000 05
050200 1839N 06313W 8426 01527 //// +181 //// 136008 008 016 000 05
050230 1839N 06314W 8430 01522 //// +194 //// 135006 007 011 000 05
050300 1837N 06315W 8426 01527 //// +195 //// 084001 002 012 000 01
050330 1836N 06316W 8432 01522 //// +198 //// 006002 003 009 000 05
050400 1835N 06317W 8430 01526 //// +196 //// 347004 006 008 000 05
$$
;
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Recon
000
URNT15 KNHC 110524
AF307 0514A MARIA HDOB 51 20110911
051430 1856N 06343W 8429 01533 //// +185 //// 061033 034 039 000 05
051500 1858N 06344W 8429 01535 //// +185 //// 060032 033 037 000 05
051530 1859N 06345W 8429 01535 //// +183 //// 058032 033 039 000 05
051600 1900N 06346W 8428 01536 //// +175 //// 058037 037 038 000 05
051630 1900N 06346W 8428 01536 //// +175 //// 057035 035 037 000 01
051700 1903N 06349W 8429 01537 //// +175 //// 060034 034 036 000 05
051730 1904N 06350W 8430 01536 //// +175 //// 061037 038 037 000 01
051800 1905N 06351W 8429 01538 //// +169 //// 063043 045 037 000 05
051830 1906N 06352W 8433 01535 //// +166 //// 062045 046 036 000 01
051900 1908N 06354W 8430 01539 //// +165 //// 061046 046 036 000 05
051930 1909N 06355W 8429 01541 //// +165 //// 060047 047 035 000 05
052000 1910N 06356W 8430 01539 //// +167 //// 061047 047 035 000 01
052030 1911N 06357W 8430 01539 //// +166 //// 064044 045 034 000 01
052100 1913N 06358W 8429 01541 //// +167 //// 064044 045 035 000 05
052130 1914N 06400W 8430 01542 //// +164 //// 064046 046 033 000 01
052200 1915N 06401W 8429 01542 //// +162 //// 065047 047 034 000 05
052230 1916N 06402W 8430 01542 //// +160 //// 066045 046 034 000 01
052300 1918N 06403W 8431 01542 //// +163 //// 066044 044 033 000 01
052330 1919N 06405W 8430 01543 //// +165 //// 069043 044 032 000 05
052400 1920N 06406W 8430 01546 //// +170 //// 071041 041 033 000 05
$$
URNT15 KNHC 110524
AF307 0514A MARIA HDOB 51 20110911
051430 1856N 06343W 8429 01533 //// +185 //// 061033 034 039 000 05
051500 1858N 06344W 8429 01535 //// +185 //// 060032 033 037 000 05
051530 1859N 06345W 8429 01535 //// +183 //// 058032 033 039 000 05
051600 1900N 06346W 8428 01536 //// +175 //// 058037 037 038 000 05
051630 1900N 06346W 8428 01536 //// +175 //// 057035 035 037 000 01
051700 1903N 06349W 8429 01537 //// +175 //// 060034 034 036 000 05
051730 1904N 06350W 8430 01536 //// +175 //// 061037 038 037 000 01
051800 1905N 06351W 8429 01538 //// +169 //// 063043 045 037 000 05
051830 1906N 06352W 8433 01535 //// +166 //// 062045 046 036 000 01
051900 1908N 06354W 8430 01539 //// +165 //// 061046 046 036 000 05
051930 1909N 06355W 8429 01541 //// +165 //// 060047 047 035 000 05
052000 1910N 06356W 8430 01539 //// +167 //// 061047 047 035 000 01
052030 1911N 06357W 8430 01539 //// +166 //// 064044 045 034 000 01
052100 1913N 06358W 8429 01541 //// +167 //// 064044 045 035 000 05
052130 1914N 06400W 8430 01542 //// +164 //// 064046 046 033 000 01
052200 1915N 06401W 8429 01542 //// +162 //// 065047 047 034 000 05
052230 1916N 06402W 8430 01542 //// +160 //// 066045 046 034 000 01
052300 1918N 06403W 8431 01542 //// +163 //// 066044 044 033 000 01
052330 1919N 06405W 8430 01543 //// +165 //// 069043 044 032 000 05
052400 1920N 06406W 8430 01546 //// +170 //// 071041 041 033 000 05
$$
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Recon Discussion
Artist and I have been posting the observations for Nate and Maria but I'll have to go in about 30 min, and I guess artist may need rest too or at least some help, so if someone wants to take over it would be really appreciated.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Recon Discussion
Macrocane wrote:Artist and I have been posting the observations for Nate and Maria but I'll have to go in about 30 min, and I guess artist may need rest too or at least some help, so if someone wants to take over it would be really appreciated.
yes, thank you Macrocane. I am needing to go as well. I do believe Maria may almost be done, but Nate is needed to be posted for awhile.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Recon
000
URNT15 KNHC 110534
AF307 0514A MARIA HDOB 52 20110911
052430 1921N 06407W 8430 01544 //// +174 //// 072041 042 032 000 05
052500 1923N 06408W 8430 01546 //// +170 //// 072040 040 030 000 01
052530 1924N 06410W 8425 01550 //// +170 //// 075041 041 028 000 01
052600 1925N 06411W 8432 01544 //// +170 //// 074039 041 029 000 01
052630 1927N 06412W 8430 01547 //// +169 //// 076037 038 030 000 05
052700 1928N 06414W 8432 01547 //// +170 //// 073037 037 030 000 05
052730 1929N 06415W 8429 01550 //// +170 //// 071038 039 031 000 01
052800 1931N 06416W 8427 01552 //// +172 //// 072037 038 030 000 01
052830 1932N 06417W 8429 01550 //// +172 //// 072036 037 029 000 01
052900 1933N 06419W 8429 01550 //// +171 //// 072036 037 031 000 01
052930 1934N 06420W 8433 01547 //// +166 //// 072036 037 031 000 01
053000 1936N 06421W 8432 01547 //// +166 //// 071036 037 030 000 01
053030 1937N 06423W 8429 01550 //// +170 //// 070034 036 024 000 05
053100 1938N 06424W 8429 01549 //// +170 //// 069035 036 025 001 01
053130 1940N 06425W 8431 01548 //// +169 //// 070034 035 028 000 01
053200 1941N 06426W 8428 01553 //// +171 //// 073036 037 027 000 05
053230 1942N 06428W 8428 01552 //// +169 //// 076034 035 024 000 05
053300 1943N 06429W 8433 01549 //// +170 //// 073034 036 024 000 01
053330 1945N 06430W 8431 01552 //// +165 //// 072035 036 023 000 05
053400 1946N 06431W 8429 01553 //// +165 //// 070035 035 023 000 05
$$
;
URNT15 KNHC 110534
AF307 0514A MARIA HDOB 52 20110911
052430 1921N 06407W 8430 01544 //// +174 //// 072041 042 032 000 05
052500 1923N 06408W 8430 01546 //// +170 //// 072040 040 030 000 01
052530 1924N 06410W 8425 01550 //// +170 //// 075041 041 028 000 01
052600 1925N 06411W 8432 01544 //// +170 //// 074039 041 029 000 01
052630 1927N 06412W 8430 01547 //// +169 //// 076037 038 030 000 05
052700 1928N 06414W 8432 01547 //// +170 //// 073037 037 030 000 05
052730 1929N 06415W 8429 01550 //// +170 //// 071038 039 031 000 01
052800 1931N 06416W 8427 01552 //// +172 //// 072037 038 030 000 01
052830 1932N 06417W 8429 01550 //// +172 //// 072036 037 029 000 01
052900 1933N 06419W 8429 01550 //// +171 //// 072036 037 031 000 01
052930 1934N 06420W 8433 01547 //// +166 //// 072036 037 031 000 01
053000 1936N 06421W 8432 01547 //// +166 //// 071036 037 030 000 01
053030 1937N 06423W 8429 01550 //// +170 //// 070034 036 024 000 05
053100 1938N 06424W 8429 01549 //// +170 //// 069035 036 025 001 01
053130 1940N 06425W 8431 01548 //// +169 //// 070034 035 028 000 01
053200 1941N 06426W 8428 01553 //// +171 //// 073036 037 027 000 05
053230 1942N 06428W 8428 01552 //// +169 //// 076034 035 024 000 05
053300 1943N 06429W 8433 01549 //// +170 //// 073034 036 024 000 01
053330 1945N 06430W 8431 01552 //// +165 //// 072035 036 023 000 05
053400 1946N 06431W 8429 01553 //// +165 //// 070035 035 023 000 05
$$
;
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URNT12 KNHC 110528
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142011
A. 11/05:03:30Z
B. 18 deg 36 min N
063 deg 16 min W
C. 850 mb 1454 m
D. 46 kt
E. 018 deg 42 nm
F. 094 deg 56 kt
G. 013 deg 56 nm
H. 1005 mb
I. 17 C / 1521 m
J. 20 C / 1522 m
K. 20 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 0514A MARIA OB 22
MAX FL WIND 58 KT E QUAD 01:45:00Z
FREQ LTG N THRU E QUADS
............................................................
decoded
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 11th day of the month at 05:28Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 14L in 2011
Storm Name: Maria (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 22
A. Time of Center Fix: 11th day of the month at 5:03:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°36'N 63°16'W (18.6N 63.2667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 29 miles (47 km) to the NNW (333°) from The Valley, Anguilla.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,454m (4,770ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 46kts (~ 52.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the NNE (18°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 94° at 56kts (From the E at ~ 64.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 56 nautical miles (64 statute miles) to the NNE (13°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph) in the east quadrant at 1:45:00Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
FREQ LTG N THRU E QUADS
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142011
A. 11/05:03:30Z
B. 18 deg 36 min N
063 deg 16 min W
C. 850 mb 1454 m
D. 46 kt
E. 018 deg 42 nm
F. 094 deg 56 kt
G. 013 deg 56 nm
H. 1005 mb
I. 17 C / 1521 m
J. 20 C / 1522 m
K. 20 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 0514A MARIA OB 22
MAX FL WIND 58 KT E QUAD 01:45:00Z
FREQ LTG N THRU E QUADS
............................................................
decoded
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 11th day of the month at 05:28Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 14L in 2011
Storm Name: Maria (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 22
A. Time of Center Fix: 11th day of the month at 5:03:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°36'N 63°16'W (18.6N 63.2667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 29 miles (47 km) to the NNW (333°) from The Valley, Anguilla.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,454m (4,770ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 46kts (~ 52.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the NNE (18°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 94° at 56kts (From the E at ~ 64.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 56 nautical miles (64 statute miles) to the NNE (13°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph) in the east quadrant at 1:45:00Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
FREQ LTG N THRU E QUADS
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ozonepete
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 4743
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
- Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY
Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Don't like the latest developments with this. I rarely ever disagree with the NHC motion forecasts, but it looks like it's moving a lot more west than it was before. The ridge north of it hasn't strengthened, but it HAS elongated more east to west. I just can't buy that this is going northwest at all now. In addition, the convection is expanding really rapidly now in all directions and there's a really intense band of convection developing that's moving thru the islands. Stay safe all of my friends down there! PR watch out!
that's
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
that's
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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AJC3
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- Location: Ballston Spa, New York
- Contact:
Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
ozonepete wrote:Don't like the latest developments with this. I rarely ever disagree with the NHC motion forecasts, but it looks like it's moving a lot more west than it was before. The ridge north of it hasn't strengthened, but it HAS elongated more east to west. I just can't buy that this one is going to turn very soon. In addition, the convection is expanding really rapidly now in all directions and there's a really intense band moving thru the islands. Stay safe all of my friends down there! PR watch out!
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
A couple points...
1) Maria's center is not getting west of 70-71W. In 36-48 hours, whats left of the narrow ridge to the north and northwest of the system will collapse and be replaced by a very large trough. If it was to get any father west than that, it would be a colossal failure of model guidance of epic proportions.
2) Maria's center is already north of the latitude of Puerto Rico. There is no deep convection near the island as the SW side of Maria is void of convection. Aside from some small light to moderate gusty showers moving southwest over PR, really the main things they'll need to be mindful of are the seas and surf.
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ozonepete
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 4743
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
- Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY
Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
AJC3 wrote:ozonepete wrote:Don't like the latest developments with this. I rarely ever disagree with the NHC motion forecasts, but it looks like it's moving a lot more west than it was before. The ridge north of it hasn't strengthened, but it HAS elongated more east to west. I just can't buy that this one is going to turn very soon. In addition, the convection is expanding really rapidly now in all directions and there's a really intense band moving thru the islands. Stay safe all of my friends down there! PR watch out!
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
A couple points...
1) Maria's center is not getting west of 70-71W. In 36-48 hours, whats left of the narrow ridge to the north and northwest of the system will collapse and be replaced by a very large trough. If it was to get any father west than that, it would be a colossal failure of model guidance of epic proportions.
2) Maria's center is already north of the latitude of Puerto Rico. There is no deep convection near the island as the SW side of Maria is void of convection. Aside from some small light to moderate gusty showers moving southwest over PR, really the main things they'll need to be mindful of are the seas and surf.
Then why are winds northeast at San Juan right now?
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ozonepete
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 4743
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
- Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY
Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Why aren't winds NW at San Juan if they're already SW at St. Maarten?
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ozonepete
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 4743
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
- Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY
Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
AJC3 wrote:ozonepete wrote:Don't like the latest developments with this. I rarely ever disagree with the NHC motion forecasts, but it looks like it's moving a lot more west than it was before. The ridge north of it hasn't strengthened, but it HAS elongated more east to west. I just can't buy that this one is going to turn very soon. In addition, the convection is expanding really rapidly now in all directions and there's a really intense band moving thru the islands. Stay safe all of my friends down there! PR watch out!
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
A couple points...
1) Maria's center is not getting west of 70-71W. In 36-48 hours, whats left of the narrow ridge to the north and northwest of the system will collapse and be replaced by a very large trough. If it was to get any father west than that, it would be a colossal failure of model guidance of epic proportions.
2) Maria's center is already north of the latitude of Puerto Rico. There is no deep convection near the island as the SW side of Maria is void of convection. Aside from some small light to moderate gusty showers moving southwest over PR, really the main things they'll need to be mindful of are the seas and surf.
So they have no heavy rain or flooding worries?
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Extratropical94
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 AM AST SUN SEP 11 2011
...MARIA EXPECTED TO MOVE GRADUALLY AWAY FROM THE EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 63.7W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ENE OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.7 WEST. MARIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF MARIA WILL MOVE GRADUALLY AWAY FROM THE EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND MOVE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER WATER TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH
IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE A FEW HOURS AGO WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 AM AST SUN SEP 11 2011
ALTHOUGH SHEARED...FINALLY MARIA LOOKS LIKE A TROPICAL STORM ON
SATELLITE. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS A LITTLE BETTER ESTABLISHED. IN FACT...BOTH TAFB AND SAB
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UP TO 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. AN AIR FORCE
PLANE WAS IN MARIA UNTIL AROUND 0600 UTC...AND FOUND THAT THE
CIRCULATION WAS BETTER DEFINED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT ONLY...AND A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004
MB. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS
ALSO INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW 50 KNOTS. HAVING SAID THAT...WATER VAPOR
IMAGES STILL SHOW THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF
MARIA PRODUCING SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING THIS TROUGH...BUT THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN RESILIENT AND IT
HAS NOT GONE YET. ON THIS BASIS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION THEREAFTER. THIS FOLLOWS
THE LGEM MODEL WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE MOST CONSERVATIVE...BUT IN
GENERAL MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MAKES MARIA A HURRICANE OVER THE
WATERS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS.
MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE TRAPPED BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL
HIGH AND A TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IS THE
SAME STEERING PATTERN THAT IN GENERAL HAS PREVAILED THIS SEASON...
AND MOST LIKELY WILL FORCE MARIA TO MOVE ON A NORTHWEST AND THEN
NORTHWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
THEN ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. THE NHC FORECAST LIES IN MIDDLE OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE WHICH IT IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING MARIA
WELL NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS...AND THEN RECURVING IT BETWEEN THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST AND BERMUDA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0900Z 19.0N 63.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 20.0N 65.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 21.5N 66.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 22.5N 67.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 23.5N 68.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 27.0N 70.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 33.5N 68.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 43.0N 58.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 AM AST SUN SEP 11 2011
...MARIA EXPECTED TO MOVE GRADUALLY AWAY FROM THE EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 63.7W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ENE OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.7 WEST. MARIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF MARIA WILL MOVE GRADUALLY AWAY FROM THE EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND MOVE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER WATER TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH
IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE A FEW HOURS AGO WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 AM AST SUN SEP 11 2011
ALTHOUGH SHEARED...FINALLY MARIA LOOKS LIKE A TROPICAL STORM ON
SATELLITE. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS A LITTLE BETTER ESTABLISHED. IN FACT...BOTH TAFB AND SAB
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UP TO 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. AN AIR FORCE
PLANE WAS IN MARIA UNTIL AROUND 0600 UTC...AND FOUND THAT THE
CIRCULATION WAS BETTER DEFINED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT ONLY...AND A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004
MB. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS
ALSO INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW 50 KNOTS. HAVING SAID THAT...WATER VAPOR
IMAGES STILL SHOW THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF
MARIA PRODUCING SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING THIS TROUGH...BUT THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN RESILIENT AND IT
HAS NOT GONE YET. ON THIS BASIS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION THEREAFTER. THIS FOLLOWS
THE LGEM MODEL WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE MOST CONSERVATIVE...BUT IN
GENERAL MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MAKES MARIA A HURRICANE OVER THE
WATERS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS.
MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE TRAPPED BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL
HIGH AND A TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IS THE
SAME STEERING PATTERN THAT IN GENERAL HAS PREVAILED THIS SEASON...
AND MOST LIKELY WILL FORCE MARIA TO MOVE ON A NORTHWEST AND THEN
NORTHWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
THEN ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. THE NHC FORECAST LIES IN MIDDLE OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE WHICH IT IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING MARIA
WELL NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS...AND THEN RECURVING IT BETWEEN THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST AND BERMUDA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0900Z 19.0N 63.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 20.0N 65.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 21.5N 66.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 22.5N 67.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 23.5N 68.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 27.0N 70.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 33.5N 68.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 43.0N 58.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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AJC3
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
ozonepete wrote:AJC3 wrote:ozonepete wrote:Don't like the latest developments with this. I rarely ever disagree with the NHC motion forecasts, but it looks like it's moving a lot more west than it was before. The ridge north of it hasn't strengthened, but it HAS elongated more east to west. I just can't buy that this one is going to turn very soon. In addition, the convection is expanding really rapidly now in all directions and there's a really intense band moving thru the islands. Stay safe all of my friends down there! PR watch out!
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
A couple points...
1) Maria's center is not getting west of 70-71W. In 36-48 hours, whats left of the narrow ridge to the north and northwest of the system will collapse and be replaced by a very large trough. If it was to get any father west than that, it would be a colossal failure of model guidance of epic proportions.
2) Maria's center is already north of the latitude of Puerto Rico. There is no deep convection near the island as the SW side of Maria is void of convection. Aside from some small light to moderate gusty showers moving southwest over PR, really the main things they'll need to be mindful of are the seas and surf.
So they have no heavy rain or flooding worries?
While there's a Flood Watch for PR and the USVI, WFO San Juan seemed to suggest in their AFD that they would be dropping it for at least part of their area today. Again, radar only shows passing light to moderate rain showers moving across the island, and since the deep convection is still sheared well to the NE, the torrential rains should avoid hitting the island. They've had quite a bit of rain lately, so I suspect there are areas of the island that are more susceptible to flash flooding, especially valleys, could have a problem if heavier rain bands manage to develop. No sign of that yet though.
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AJC3
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
ozonepete wrote::uarrow: Why aren't winds NW at San Juan if they're already SW at St. Maarten?
They will be in the not too distant future. A C-man site on Saint Croix is west, and Saint Thomas is NNW.
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