ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[KWT]

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 48 HR
INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS WELL BEFORE LANDFALL...AND DON COULD GET
STRONGER THAN THIS BETWEEN 48-72 HR.

Thats an important note from NHC. Thats basically them saying if they had a 60 hr forecast point it would be 60 or 65kt.

Yep a very important note, as you say that probably suggests something close to hurricane status...

I think people in the cone should be prepared for a category-2, you know what they say, always prepare for the next category up...

[SunnyThoughts]

I guess they are waiting until the next package to put out any watches. Guess they didn't really want to put out a watch for the entire coastline of Texas, considering the storm is so small, and a slow mover too probably one reason also.

[Rgv20]

From the 4pm NHC discussion.

The large-scale models forecast
that within 24 hr Don will become embedded in deep-layer easterly
to southeasterly flow that should persist for several days. This
evolution should steer the storm generally northwestward. While
the models agree with this scenario...there is a spread in the
guidance on where Don will reach the northwestern Gulf Coast. The
GFDL and GFS are farthest to the right...closer to the Houston/
Galveston area. The UKMET/ECMWF are farthest to the left...closer
to the Brownsville area. The forecast track lies between these
extremes and is close to the various consensus models.

Gotta love the model wars!

[KWT]

I have NEVER seen them stumble like this consistently as they have so far this season. Let's hope they don't appear to be so rudderless for long.
Back to lurking......good luck to those in Texas.

To be fair, I think they could have upgraded this at any point in the last 6hrs, but given both recon was heading in there at the same time the advisory was due out, i think it made sense to wait an extra few hours and get some real quality information about the system out to the general public, rather than just guesstimate.

[gatorcane]

I think the NHC is equally baffled why the models are not very bullish on this system:

DON IS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE
GLOBAL MODELS FOR THE MOST PART FORECAST LIGHT TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT 72 HR. DESPITE
THIS...NONE OF THOSE MODELS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF
THE STORM...AND NEITHER DOES THE GFDL. THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND HWRF
MODELS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO REACH 55-65 KT BEFORE LANDFALL IN
TEXAS...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 48 HR
INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS WELL BEFORE LANDFALL...AND DON COULD GET
STRONGER THAN THIS BETWEEN 48-72 HR.

[mf_dolphin]

Yep. DT was looking at the Recon data.

[sallytx]

Is it possible that the track could shift closer to the Houston area or is that ruled out at this point?

[Portastorm]

Personally, I'm liking the NHC's progged path if for no other reason than some nice rain is going to fall on south-central Texas. Am willing to take isolated tornado or wind gusts if we can get the rain. Yes, it is THAT BAD here.

[SunnyThoughts]

Do we know how often recon is going to be inside the storm? I realize recon is still in there now, but will there be fairly continuous recon going on until landfall?

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 272108
AF300 01DDA INVEST HDOB 26 20110727
205800 2155N 08645W 9768 00281 0093 +185 +138 188041 043 043 020 00
205830 2156N 08646W 9771 00277 0087 +209 +137 188041 042 033 010 03
205900 2157N 08647W 9772 00272 0083 +216 +136 196038 039 031 010 00
205930 2158N 08649W 9772 00268 0079 +221 +137 202037 038 029 010 00
210000 2158N 08650W 9768 00271 0077 +224 +139 214034 035 029 007 00
210030 2159N 08652W 9774 00264 0075 +223 +143 215033 035 030 004 03
210100 2200N 08653W 9771 00270 0076 +224 +147 230027 030 026 001 03
210130 2201N 08654W 9761 00272 0072 +226 +150 239027 028 020 002 03
210200 2202N 08656W 9778 00254 0067 +233 +154 245030 031 021 001 03
210230 2203N 08656W 9768 00259 0062 +232 +157 250030 031 022 003 00
210300 2204N 08657W 9772 00249 0055 +237 +161 250031 032 022 003 03
210330 2206N 08658W 9770 00248 0050 +226 +165 253030 031 028 002 03
210400 2207N 08658W 9766 00243 0043 +220 +168 257028 031 027 004 00
210430 2209N 08659W 9770 00233 0036 +229 +170 269022 023 021 003 03
210500 2210N 08659W 9770 00231 0033 +233 +170 299022 023 018 002 00
210530 2211N 08700W 9768 00232 0030 +238 +172 323020 023 020 002 00
210600 2213N 08700W 9768 00231 0030 +236 +174 004019 021 018 004 00
210630 2214N 08701W 9772 00231 0033 +234 +176 032023 024 014 005 00
210700 2215N 08701W 9774 00231 0035 +239 +177 039026 027 022 003 00
210730 2217N 08702W 9766 00242 0041 +235 +177 057028 030 021 004 00
$$
;

43 kt FL, 43 kt SFMR, 1003mb pressure (may have missed center?)

[pricetag56]

i think it will be a lot stronger than the models show they always are too conservative on intensity given the conditions ahead of it

[CrazyC83]

It seems that recently, the NHC is waiting longer to upgrade systems. This is the third time this season that a tropical storm will not have been warned on as a depression prior to being named. Also the last two storms from last year were not warned on as depressions.

Completely agree.
This is obviously a discussion for later and I will go back to lurking so those in Texas can have free reign, however; thus far early in the season, the NHC has been very slow to react and seems to be handcuffed in some way.
I have NEVER seen them stumble like this consistently as they have so far this season. Let's hope they don't appear to be so rudderless for long.
Back to lurking......good luck to those in Texas.

My guess is that it was a depression starting at 0600Z this morning (first best track point), and probably a tropical storm at 1800Z.

[drezee]

Recon missed the center...again

[KWT]

pricetag56, I can only imagine the models are making a big deal about the dry air that is to the west of the system, but I think given the set-up the models will probably under-esatimate this system, they've not done at all a good job with this thus far...probably due to the size.

[BigB0882]

The NHC says the 48 hour intensity is well before landfall. Is it really? I thought this was supposed to come in late Friday or early Saturday which would mean, to me, 48 hours is not long before it makes landfall. Maybe they see it slowing down more than originally thought?

[Big O]

The NHC track is right in the middle of the TX coastline which is basically a split of the model consensus. Their forecast is giving a lot a weight to the EURO otherwise the projected track would be more toward the upper TX coastline.

I don't quite agree with this assessment. The NHC/TPC is hugging the consensus and splitting the difference between NE Mexico (BAM models) and SE Texas (GFS, etc.). One must remember that the Euro is quite lethal in this time range and the GFS, its ensembles, and the HWRF and GFDL have a right bias. That being said, the Euro may have a slight left bias. In light of this, I thing strong Cat 1 near Baffin Bay is quite possible. In addition, contrary to what some have posted, the stronger the storm, the more westward it will veer. Ordinarily, the deep layer steerring currents favor more of a poleward trajectory. However, in this case, they actually favor a more westerly track toward deep South Texas.

However, landfall is possible anywhere from NE Mexico to Port Lavaca, Texas.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Janie2006]

Is it possible that the track could shift closer to the Houston area or is that ruled out at this point?

Nothing is ruled out at this point.


And, gah, 340 guests.

[KWT]

Rgv20, I've just looked through the Alex thread, its amazing how similar the models were, UKMO/ECM further west, the GFS and its hurricane suite (GFDL, etc) were further east...and as per normal, the middle was right, perhaps slightly leaning closer to the ECM/UKMO solution.

If only for the rain hopefully the central track is right, a landfall close to where Bret came in would be decent.

[pricetag56]

I think the NHC is equally baffled why the models are not very bullish on this system:

DON IS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE
GLOBAL MODELS FOR THE MOST PART FORECAST LIGHT TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT 72 HR. DESPITE
THIS...NONE OF THOSE MODELS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF
THE STORM...AND NEITHER DOES THE GFDL. THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND HWRF
MODELS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO REACH 55-65 KT BEFORE LANDFALL IN
TEXAS...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 48 HR
INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS WELL BEFORE LANDFALL...AND DON COULD GET
STRONGER THAN THIS BETWEEN 48-72 HR.

i agree the models recently tend to undermine the intensity i think thats a problem with it being so close to land with the conditions ahead of it

[KWT]

The NHC says the 48 hour intensity is well before landfall. Is it really? I thought this was supposed to come in late Friday or early Saturday which would mean, to me, 48 hours is not long before it makes landfall. Maybe they see it slowing down more than originally thought?

Looking at the maps I eyeball guess they give it another 12hrs over water, which is plenty of time to add 15-25kts if the conditions are good enough.