ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[AdamFirst]

[img]http://www.goes.noaa.gov/EVENTS/EG14.GIF

How's thing in Guadeloupe gusty? Any light shows or rain?

[ozonepete]

The eastern area looks to be consolidating again. Has nice rotation, increasing convection and no outflow boundaries at the moment. So what, right? This is still impossible to figure out.

[HurricaneBrain]

Thanks for correcting me, this tropical weather has been getting to my head!

Well, your screen name is Hurricane Brain! Very fitting doncha think?

[Hurricaneman]

looks like the eastern blob is catching the western blob, when that happens I believe this will become a tropical cyclone


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[StormClouds63]

I think the eastern "blob" is still the one to watch for significant development ... if there is any.

[ozonepete]

Really looks like a strong convective center developing rapidly at about 55W 14.5N.

[Aric Dunn]

looks like the eastern blob is catching the western blob, when that happens I believe this will become a tropical cyclone


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

yes.

[Aric Dunn]

nam rolling in

[Bocadude85]

Hi Aric,

Really enjoying your posts and observations, as always. Could you please provide the link for the RBG? I forgot to bookmark it and now it is several pages back-who knows where. LOL

Thanks.
Lynn

no prob

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

Looks like she is slowly starting to come together

[Chris_in_Tampa]

If my site ever misses observations anyone can add them here:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/addobservation/
Just follow the instructions on that page. I set the interval my site updates rather high but when the NHC puts out obs sometimes every minute, or even less, to catch up, my site misses the obs. To reduce the load on my site and the NOAA server, I try to avoid setting the update interval extremely frequently unless absolutely necessary. (And even then I can only update every minute.)

[StormClouds63]

Really looks like a strong convective center developing rapidly at about 55W 14.5N.

Let's see if it persists ... see what you're talking about.

[Dave]

If my site ever misses observations anyone can add them here:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/addobservation/
Just follow the instructions on that page. I set the interval my site updates rather high but when the NHC puts out obs sometimes every minute, or even less, to catch up, my site misses the obs. To reduce the load on my site and the NOAA server, I try to avoid setting the update interval extremely frequently unless absolutely necessary. (And even then I can only update every minute.)

Got it bookmarked Chris..thanks!

[cheezyWXguy]

Really looks like a strong convective center developing rapidly at about 55W 14.5N.

Let's see if it persists ... see what you're talking about.

Yeah, and that center is awfully close to where the stationary weak llc has been located since this afternoon. Its likely close enough to pull it in underneath, and may be in the process of doing that.

[ozonepete]

Really looks like a strong convective center developing rapidly at about 55W 14.5N.

Let's see if it persists ... see what you're talking about.

Absolutely right. Persistence is everything at this point. Haven't seen too much of it yet.

[GCANE]

I having been seeing an interesting effect for the last week with Don and now with 91L.

It appears to me that the generation and lose of an anti-cyclone can be correlation to the D-region absorption of RF energy (1 to 20MHz) of the ionosphere.

This is an effect of higher than normal electron content in the ionosphere which may be do in large part to on-going x-ray flares from the sun.

The heated region of the ionosphere pretty much follows the sun on the surface of the earth.

When the ionosphere is heated locally, electron content is increased and the tropopause is pushed down closer to the earth's surface.

The effect then is to temporarily eliminate the anti-cyclone over a tropical system until the heated region passes.

The following image shows the real-time position of heated region and is indicated by blue shading.

I think this may be the reason that 91L really didn't do anything today.

Will be interesting to see if it spins up tonight.

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-rb.html

With this Blow up of convection near the what I believe is the center i do think we will have a TD by 5am

[SouthDadeFish]

Really looks like a strong convective center developing rapidly at about 55W 14.5N.

Hmm I agree. Hard to tell because it's dark, but nighttime visible imagery looks quite interesting. Some obvious inflow to this area. Not sure if its an LLC though. This is about the time I would have guessed we would start to an intensification process begin.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Just got home and trying to catch up on this afternoon/evenings events with this headache.

Aric, a page or so back you said expect major changes when the next set of model runs come out. What exactly were you refering to? The fact that this is still probably 24hrs from really getting going and will be much further west than first thought? Therefore everything is pushed a little further west?

[bella_may]

nam rolling in

well.....anything new?

[AJC3]

Remember that the NHC suite (BAM/LBAR) doesn't initialize itself. It will run from an initialization point that the NHC specialist on duty chooses. (Heck, they could run guidance initialized at 50N 20W right now if they wanted to). In a case such as this, they could choose to produce a set of runs for either or both vort centers.

The 00Z global model suite will be initialized with whatever (wind) data gets into it's assimilation schemes. Obviously there is no bogussing of any TC vortices (i.e. there isn't a TC out in the Atlantic right now). The best thing to look at to see how well the guidance was initialized will be the 0-hour panel of 850B vorticity. For instance, you could compare it to what you see on the CIMSS analysis and/or MI imagery.