ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[tolakram]

Eye like feature already?

http://img153.imageshack.us/img153/7830/zplot.png

This post is the opinion of Cryomaniac, and is not based on any evidence, meteorological or otherwise. As such it should not be used for any purpose

That looks more like dry air intrusion to my very amateur eyes.

Maybe, but loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

[ConvergenceZone]

A Bit Off Topic: From the weather channel website regarding our 3 year landfalling hurricane drought.


"In its latest seasonal outlook, Weather Services International Chief Meteorolgist, Dr. Todd Crawford, laid out a stunning fact. The United States has not gone through a three-year period without a hurricane landfall since the 1860s!"

[jinftl]

NHC puts motion at 2pm at 290 deg...it's all about geometry...a trajectory difference of 280 vs 290 deg can spell huge implications for time over hispanola.

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH

True motion when accounting for the center relocations is about 275 at the moment taking a look at the latest loops...

might be a very close call for PR. Not going to miss Hispaniola to the south now either even with a due west track.

Yeah, the more I look at the Sat loop the more it looks like closer to 275 than 285 that I was measuring.

[BobHarlem]

and by the end of the day many will probably be taking it back into the GOM.. Thats the reason why I love S2K.. great people for the most part and a whole lotta of speculation to get the wheels turning.. Stay tuned.. Im sure Irene even has our friends at the NHC throwing darts right now

I don't know, there tends to be too much model hugging without people looking at the actual satellites. Elongation of the system north to south, continual reformation of the center north north north and out. Watch this place dry up in a day or two once people fail to realize again that models are nigh useless until a system stabilizes and this system doesn't hit the US .

[Battlebrick]

any microwave images to see how the center is doing?

[plasticup]

Eye like feature already?

http://img153.imageshack.us/img153/7830/zplot.png

A hole in the clouds does not at eye make. It's just a break in the convection.

[bexar]

doesn't Irene look like she is encountering dry air right now? maybe they would have a weaker system in the next advisory?

[tolakram]

Eye like feature already?

http://img153.imageshack.us/img153/7830/zplot.png

A hole in the clouds does not at eye make. It's just a break in the convection.

Did you notice how I called it an eye like feature? Besides, I doubt either you or I is able to make a real determination, so let's just leave it at that.

[KWT]

Maybe, but loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

Yeah I've gotta admit its in the exact center of the circulation looking at the cloud motion and the convection isn;'t that strong at the moment...I've seen 50-60kts system have eyes before as well with weak convection.

Hard to say right now, need more images.

NHC probably includes the center relocation in that motion FWIW...motion is on a long term 280-285, though as Aric said recently wobbles a little to the west at 275 or so...

Probably will hit S.PR based on what I'm seeing...but spends less time over Hispaniola.

[brunota2003]

Just judging off the Sat loops and Recon, if Irene keeps the track up, it very well could make landfall on P.R. west of Ponce (closer to Ensenada), and possibly move directly over Cabo Rojo. Or it could stay just to the south of P.R. (not by very much at all though). Going to be a very, very close call for P.R. Stay safe Luis!

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Also, if it were to follow that track, I think the time spent over the D.R. would be very little, as it would either skim the northern coastline, or move onshore not too far from the coast.

[jinftl]

With an 8mb drop in pressure from 11am advisory to 2pm advisory, this is not a storm in a weakening phase.

doesn't Irene look like she is encountering dry air right now? maybe they would have a weaker system in the next advisory?

[NDG]

any microwave images to see how the center is doing?

No need, she's within radar range now.

[KWT]

Looks very close to the 12z GFS position of where it is at the moment which is good for confidence.

Irene wrapping up nicely, convection isn't great but take a look at the shape of the storm, its textbook. Get more chunky convection there and its going to look fearsome.

[NDG]

HR sat loop looks like she's trying to pop a small eye.

[tolakram]

HR sat loop looks like she's trying to pop a small eye.

Yep, I agree as posted above, but I did not dare call it an eye yet ... went with eye-like feature.

[KWT]

HR sat loop looks like she's trying to pop a small eye.

Need time to tell but given its lack of deep convection, it may well be a proto eye...

Not a true eye given the lack of a CDO but its a good sign of where any center probably is...

[NDG]

12z euro so far shows that a narrow ridge S of the digging trough should keep her on on a more westerly course than NW heading through the next 24 hrs.

[NDG]

Hmm, I don't think the 12z euro is going to join the GFS and CMC

[HurricaneWarning92]

wow pressure went down to 999 mb from last advisory. i just saw it.

[CrazyC83]

With an 8mb drop in pressure from 11am advisory to 2pm advisory, this is not a storm in a weakening phase.

doesn't Irene look like she is encountering dry air right now? maybe they would have a weaker system in the next advisory?

It isn't a real 8mb drop though since the earlier estimates were too far to the south and surface data around 1300Z supported a pressure of 1002. It was probably around 1001mb at the 11am advisory time.