ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Battlebrick]

last frame shows an eye-like feature. eye or lack of convection?

[KWT]

Probably both, the clear area is right where the center is, but I think if there was good convection you probably wouldn't notice it.

FWIW ECM bombs it, down to 979mbs already at 72hrs time!

[3090]

any microwave images to see how the center is doing?

No need, she's within radar range now.

Due west for the time being.

[dwsqos2]

It's much more attractive than it was this moring. SAB's at T3.5.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

It's much more attractive than it was this moring. SAB's at T3.5.

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
21/1745 UTC 17.5N 63.7W T3.5/3.5 IRENE

[KWT]

3090, probably a touch north of there, 275 looks a good estimate looking at the loops.

Still looks likely to brush PR and probably hit the NE side of DR looking at the current track...

Getting more concerned by the hour that this will be a major in the Bahamas and upto landfall...if it does make landfall of course!

[SouthernBreeze]

ECM down to 972 mbs at 144hrs - Just skimming East FL coast

Corrected image from Models Forum: Hrs - 120, not 144, Mb's 952, not 972!

[HurricaneWarning92]

uhhh yeah.. this doesnt look like a 50 mph storm...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

[plasticup]

3090, probably a touch north of there, 275 looks a good estimate looking at the loops.

Still looks likely to brush PR and probably hit the NE side of DR looking at the current track...

Getting more concerned by the hour that this will be a major in the Bahamas and upto landfall...if it does make landfall of course!

Stronger earlier is bad news for the Bahamas but may get it recurving just soon enough to miss the mainland US. Or to throw it into Savannah, GA.

God, this looks like it will be messy.

[CrazyC83]

How high should they go at 5 pm? 50 kt (pressure 997mb) seems the best estimate, although satellite supports 55 kt Recon was never near that.

[plasticup]

I know I was poo-pooing it earlier, but that looks a lot like an eye. Especially when you loop it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rgb.html

Yikes.

[TheDreamTraveler]

I know I was poo-pooing it earlier, but that looks a lot like an eye. Especially when you loop it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rgb.html

Yikes.

I'm pretty sure that's just dry air intrusion.

[plasticup]

I'm pretty sure that's just dry air intrusion.

I was too, but it is very compact and centralized. We'll know if it is still there in an hour.

[theweatherwatch]

I know I was poo-pooing it earlier, but that looks a lot like an eye. Especially when you loop it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rgb.html

Yikes.

I'm pretty sure that's just dry air intrusion.

lol Dry air intrusion hardly ever appears as a clear perfectly round hole in the exact center of the storm...

[bexar]

considering the dry air intrusion and lack of deep convection on the SW and SE quadrants, I guess 5PM advisory would be held at 45KT or maybe lower a bit at 40KT?

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[Zampanò]

The overall structure is as impressive as it has ever been. Once we have a deep convective burst over the center (which will probably occur tonight) I would expect fairly rapid strengthening.

[pcolaman]

I'm pretty sure that's just dry air intrusion.

I was too, but it is very compact and centralized. We'll know if it is still there in an hour.

looks like an eye to me also.

[painkillerr]

Heavy downpour and wind now in St. Thomas!

[Hylian Auree]

Especially not right atop the low-level circulation center fix. I think this is a bit more than a coincidence, though it might be a very premature stage of an attempt at developing an eyewall

[KWT]

How high should they go at 5 pm? 50 kt (pressure 997mb) seems the best estimate, although satellite supports 55 kt Recon was never near that.

50kts seems good to me, the convection isn't great but the structure is great.

Dry air is impeding the convection for now but its in great shape considering it only got going 24hrs ago.

PS, very severe looking 122z ECM, take a look people!