maxintensity wrote:I was expecting euro to be further north. Maybe it has not caught on to the center relocation.
This run is based on data submitted at the 00z which was well before the official 2am relocation.
ATL: IRENE - Models
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
This run is based on data submitted at the 00z which was well before the official 2am relocation.
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JtSmarts
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Re: Re:
ConvergenceZone wrote:Ah, got ya...Either way I think it's going to be a close call.
SFT
I agree with you there. Actually, the only reason I brought up "recurve" is because they mentioned it on the weather tonight. Stating that SHOULD it go east of Florida, whether it hits the USA or not is largely dependent on the positioning of the HIGH Pressure to the east of the USA.... So I've been trying to study as many upper air maps as I can to see if potentially it may end up recurving out to sea, but it seems to be a close call......
Yeah with that ridge supposedly building in we could see a shift towards N. FL/GA/SC... not that I want a storm around here at all.
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: Re:
ConvergenceZone wrote:Ah, got ya...Either way I think it's going to be a close call.
SFT
I agree with you there. Actually, the only reason I brought up "recurve" is because they mentioned it on the weather tonight. Stating that SHOULD it go east of Florida, whether it hits the USA or not is largely dependent on the positioning of the HIGH Pressure to the east of the USA.... So I've been trying to study as many upper air maps as I can to see if potentially it may end up recurving out to sea, but it seems to be a close call......
The exact timing and location of the western edge of the ridge will be key. I don't know if we will get a full recurve without landfall. The ridge being shown is pretty persistent and possibly building back in later in the forecast period. That's why I said that even with the center relocation right now it may actually lead to additional strengthing if the land interaction is minimal but it may not lead to a change in the reasoning or location of the "turn".
SFT
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DESTRUCTION5
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
Seems further North so far, this should hit the weakness.
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Typhoon_Willie
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
11pm discussion regarding track of Irene...
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT 280/19. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER IRENE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL DECELERATION. AFTER THAT TIME...A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOW MUCH
OF A WEAKNESS IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE...HOWEVER...WITH A VARIETY OF
MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING LARGE TRACK SPREAD AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...A FEW OF THE MODELS...SUCH AS THE
UKMET...SHOW MORE OF AN EMPHASIS ON A SECOND TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND DO NOT SHOW THE FIRST TROUGH AFFECTING
IRENE MUCH. THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE WEST IN THE
LATER PERIODS...AND IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO SHIFT THE NHC FORECAST
IN THAT DIRECTION. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...THIS IS
A GOOD TIME TO REMIND USERS THAT THE AVERAGE DAY 4 AND 5 NHC TRACK
FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 250 MILES.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT 280/19. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER IRENE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL DECELERATION. AFTER THAT TIME...A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOW MUCH
OF A WEAKNESS IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE...HOWEVER...WITH A VARIETY OF
MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING LARGE TRACK SPREAD AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...A FEW OF THE MODELS...SUCH AS THE
UKMET...SHOW MORE OF AN EMPHASIS ON A SECOND TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND DO NOT SHOW THE FIRST TROUGH AFFECTING
IRENE MUCH. THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE WEST IN THE
LATER PERIODS...AND IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO SHIFT THE NHC FORECAST
IN THAT DIRECTION. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...THIS IS
A GOOD TIME TO REMIND USERS THAT THE AVERAGE DAY 4 AND 5 NHC TRACK
FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 250 MILES.
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DESTRUCTION5
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
East of Florida.
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weatherguy2
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DESTRUCTION5
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
What is the direction it is moving at this time - nw, nnw, north, nne, ne? That would make a huge difference in what happens after the plot time shown.
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
Close but EAST OF FL...
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
Close but EAST OF FL...
NHC is shifting the cone back East on the 5am, that is for sure....
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DESTRUCTION5
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
Stays about 50 miles E of FL this run but SC gets it
Last edited by DESTRUCTION5 on Sun Aug 21, 2011 1:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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maxintensity
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
It's definitely close enough to still cause a scare in the folks down here. We shall see if the GFS continues to move more to the east at 06z. Until then...goodnight Irene!
LOL, sorry...couldn't help myself!
SFT
LOL, sorry...couldn't help myself!
SFT
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Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
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DESTRUCTION5
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Re:
NDG wrote:Actually, the Euro shows it making landfall through GA with it showing building ridging to the north.
Yep
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GATOR NATION IS E V E R Y W H E R E !
Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
50 miles east +/- the 200-250 mile margin of error that far out...could mean 200 miles west of florida or 300 miles east of florida...or anywhere in between.
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
Stays about 50 miles E of FL this run but SC gets it
Last edited by jinftl on Sun Aug 21, 2011 1:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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