ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 272137
AF300 01DDA INVEST HDOB 29 20110727
212800 2249N 08733W 9749 00300 0090 +230 +168 085024 024 023 002 00
212830 2250N 08734W 9739 00310 0090 +230 +170 087024 025 020 001 03
212900 2251N 08736W 9748 00300 0091 +230 +171 085023 024 020 001 00
212930 2252N 08737W 9749 00304 0092 +230 +172 090023 024 022 002 00
213000 2253N 08738W 9738 00312 0092 +231 +174 089024 024 021 001 00
213030 2255N 08740W 9751 00300 0092 +232 +175 088023 023 022 001 03
213100 2256N 08741W 9753 00300 0093 +232 +176 087023 024 020 003 03
213130 2257N 08742W 9739 00312 0094 +233 +177 085022 023 015 004 03
213200 2258N 08744W 9753 00301 0094 +235 +178 087022 022 016 003 00
213230 2259N 08745W 9746 00307 0094 +235 +179 089022 023 017 002 03
213300 2300N 08746W 9738 00313 0093 +234 +179 091022 023 019 001 03
213330 2302N 08748W 9747 00305 0093 +235 +180 091022 022 018 001 03
213400 2303N 08749W 9749 00305 0094 +234 +180 094021 022 016 002 03
213430 2304N 08750W 9743 00310 0095 +235 +180 097023 024 019 002 03
213500 2305N 08751W 9752 00303 0095 +235 +180 093023 024 017 003 03
213530 2306N 08753W 9628 00400 0085 +226 +180 090022 023 /// /// 03
213600 2307N 08755W 9207 00795 0083 +208 +178 079023 023 /// /// 03
213630 2308N 08756W 8719 01260 0074 +183 +174 062020 021 /// /// 03
213700 2309N 08758W 8217 01769 0072 +159 //// 055018 019 /// /// 05
213730 2309N 08800W 7860 02150 0074 +138 //// 045018 018 /// /// 05
$$
;

Mission over.

[HURAKAN]

plane leaving

[KWT]

I'd personally go a little lower myself, i'd say current strength is probably close to 40kts, FL winds IMO don't really support any higher and whilst the surface estimates do, the fact they are exactly the same strength as the FL at the time they got a 43kt estimate, I'd err on the side of caution.

[BigB0882]

Would anyone like to take bets on the first "is that an EYE?" comment?

[hriverajr]

Personally, I'm liking the NHC's progged path if for no other reason than some nice rain is going to fall on south-central Texas. Am willing to take isolated tornado or wind gusts if we can get the rain. Yes, it is THAT BAD here.

I'm in Del Rio and I can vouch for that. A path towards Houston and we will only get dryer for the next ten days. I think though the actual path will be either a bit south or north of the projected path. We will have to see which models have the best handle on the storm.

[TheBurn]

[crimi481]

Really Looks promising on Satellite loop now.(Vis)
From distance - almost looks like Don "transferring" (pulling clouds up) some energy up to system (ULL? -I think) along N. Gulf Coast. Could a "low" (or second low) form up there? (some "turning" now)
Thanks -and this is fun site!

[SunnyThoughts]

When is recon due to head back out? Later tonight sometime? Or tomorrow morning?

[crimi481]

Whoops - forgot the link
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash

[red herring]

That outflow to the north reminds me of something

[HurricaneBrain]

The track should be interesting in the morning.

[WxEnthus]

I've been watching TS Don since he was a wave off the coast of Africa (as well as the two that came along behind it). Interesting to see it go through the challenging areas and still come out kicking. I've been avidly reading everyday and have enjoyed all the posts and opinions. Almost 80 pages on Don as an invest! Just before 5pm the board went down for me as everyone was awaiting the 5pm update (what timing! ); but I saw there were hundreds & hundreds of people on here, awesome!

Watching the development of potentially what might be the first U.S. landfalling hurricane in a long while has definitely been vying for my attention, although I'm in the middle of studying for a test in one of my MET classes. Is it ironic that my weather class is delaying me getting my weather fix?! Just wanted to say thanks to everyone, I'm so glad for this forum.

[cycloneye]

When is recon due to head back out? Later tonight sometime? Or tomorrow morning?

Tommorow morning around 8 AM EDT.

Code: Select all

BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
       AT 28/1200Z NEAR 23.0N 91.5W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.



[ConvergenceZone]

Man this is great news for Texas. Even the weather channel was saying this tropical storm is good news and you don't see that very often!

[Tireman4]

Would anyone like to take bets on the first "is that an EYE?" comment?

I think I am seeing an eye....ha ha ha

[nicole]

Considering the drought conditions here in Texas...I have a feeling we shall see more than one TX landfall this season. It make sense right?...to play catch up with rain totals.. IMO

[Snow Deprived365]

What times of the day does the NHC update the track of the storm?

[fci]

Would anyone like to take bets on the first "is that an EYE?" comment?

Don't forget "wobble-watching".

[Florida1118]

What times of the day does the NHC update the track of the storm?

5am,11am,5pm,11pm, EDT

[midnight8]

What times of the day does the NHC update the track of the storm?

4am, 10am, 4 pm, 10 pm I believe. Add 1 am 7 am and 1pm and 7 pm closer to landfall. I believe

Central time I should have said