ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Hylian Auree]

Actually, disregard that. I don't know what that is, but convection is not nearly deep enough to undergo and sustain any sort of eyewall building

[red herring]

Dry air in the forming eye

[Sanibel]

GFDL now takes Irene over the thick of Hispaniola and Cuba and brings a weak category 1 hurricane right over the top of Sanibel...

[TwisterFanatic]

Goodness guys, that's not an eye.

[painkillerr]

Charlotte Amalie

[breaking wind]

It looks to this casual observer that Irene is going to have multiple land interactions with possibly Puerto Rico and most likely long stints over Hispaniola and a decent amount of time over Cuba. I for one would never downplay the potential of any storm especially this time of year but the path the NHC has this on (and that is their strong suit) should keep this storm from ever having too much time over water at any one time before hitting land. A long way to go though.

[Jevo]

A little late on the shot.. but I think it's well past that time...

Welcome to the club Irene

[gone2beach]

Blew that section up for you, hope that's helpful.

[Sanibel]

That slightly south of west wobble is probably the convection pulling over the center.

[KWT]

Heavy downpour and wind now in St. Thomas!

Yeah strong bands set off by the past outflow boundaries are spreading across PR right now, the core convection still a few hours away still.

By the way, expect the track to shift EAST on its next advisory, importantly less land interaction, probably very little at all with Cuba in fact, and expect a stronger hurricane.

[jlauderdal]

I know I was poo-pooing it earlier, but that looks a lot like an eye. Especially when you loop it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rgb.html

Yikes.

I'm pretty sure that's just dry air intrusion.

if i showed almost anyone that sat pic and said what is that they would say "hurricane"

[hurricaneCW]

It actually looks like it would still pass through the heart of Hispaniola especially since its moving quickly nearly due west right now.

[3090]

Heavy downpour and wind now in St. Thomas!

Yeah strong bands set off by the past outflow boundaries are spreading across PR right now, the core convection still a few hours away still.

By the way, expect the track to shift EAST on its next advisory, importantly less land interaction, probably very little at all with Cuba in fact, and expect a stronger hurricane.

What is your scientific reasoning, for an expected east shift in the forecast track, by the professionals at the NHC? At its current rate of speed and motion, along with upper air flow, unless something drastically changes, it will be over the eastern part of Cuba moving in the general direction of SE Florida.

[cycloneye]

Anyone see it is moving a tad slower?

[theweatherwatch]

Heavy downpour and wind now in St. Thomas!

Yeah strong bands set off by the past outflow boundaries are spreading across PR right now, the core convection still a few hours away still.

By the way, expect the track to shift EAST on its next advisory, importantly less land interaction, probably very little at all with Cuba in fact, and expect a stronger hurricane.

What is your scientific reasoning, for an expected east shift in the forecast track, by the professionals at the NHC?

All the Major Forecast models have shifted East with Some having Irene make landfall in SC now instead of FL.

[Cryomaniac]

A little late on the shot.. but I think it's well past that time...

Welcome to the club Irene

Lol. did anyone turn the picture of the guy on the beach in a bear suit during Ike into a similar thing?

[xironman]

Looks like a meso popping up on the north side of that eye like feature.

[KWT]

It actually looks like it would still pass through the heart of Hispaniola especially since its moving quickly nearly due west right now.

Probably still a touch north of west from what I'm looking at.

Looks like a very close call to PR and it also looks like it strengthening to me, starting to wrap around better right now.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

It actually looks like it would still pass through the heart of Hispaniola especially since its moving quickly nearly due west right now.

Probably still a touch north of west from what I'm looking at.

Looks like a very close call to PR and it also looks like it strengthening to me, starting to wrap around better right now.

Is pretty evident in the Doppler Radar that us starting to wrap. Also I see it a tad slower..

[HURAKAN]

latest close-up visible