ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[3090]

Heavy downpour and wind now in St. Thomas!

Yeah strong bands set off by the past outflow boundaries are spreading across PR right now, the core convection still a few hours away still.

By the way, expect the track to shift EAST on its next advisory, importantly less land interaction, probably very little at all with Cuba in fact, and expect a stronger hurricane.[/quote]


What is your scientific reasoning, for an expected east shift in the forecast track, by the professionals at the NHC?[/quote]

All the Major Forecast models have shifted East with Some having Irene make landfall in SC now instead of FL.[/quote]

The NHC will not make a major change in the forecast track, very much, over one series of model runs. IF and I mean a big IF, there are two consecutive model runs of a trend, then they will make an adjustment. Overall, the NHC has not changed their general forecast track that much, since Irene was born, contrary to what many posters want to predict/believe. Go back and do a little research from last evening. Maybe 50 miles or so either side of a line to Miami.

[Steve H.]

Yeah, she is definitely looking her best so far. Convection is beginning to wrap in around the CoC and filling in from the north.

[LCfromFL]

I haven't seen anyone post a link to this site...pretty cool site where you can turn on/off different layers (clouds, models, etc).

http://www.stormpulse.com/tropical-storm-irene-2011

[chris_fit]

Looks like that "eye feature" was a pocket of dry air. It's gone now, seeing a hotspot fire right at the center on the latest visible.

[Bocadude85]

Heavy downpour and wind now in St. Thomas!

Yeah strong bands set off by the past outflow boundaries are spreading across PR right now, the core convection still a few hours away still.

By the way, expect the track to shift EAST on its next advisory, importantly less land interaction, probably very little at all with Cuba in fact, and expect a stronger hurricane.

What is your scientific reasoning, for an expected east shift in the forecast track, by the professionals at the NHC?[/quote]

All the Major Forecast models have shifted East with Some having Irene make landfall in SC now instead of FL.[/quote]

The NHC will not make a major change in the forecast track, very much, over one series of model runs. IF and I mean a big IF, there are two consecutive model runs of a trend, then they will make an adjustment. Overall, the NHC has not changed their general forecast track that much, since Irene was born, contrary to what many posters want to predict/believe. Go back and do a little research from last evening. Maybe 50 miles or so either side of a line to Miami.[/quote]

I am pretty sure they are going to shift the track east. I think they will still show a landfall in Florida though just a little farther up the coast and probably not as far inland as they have it now.

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks like that "eye feature" was a pocket of dry air. It's gone now, seeing a hotspot fire right at the center on the latest visible.

That new burst is still north of the center.

[GCANE]

Right on queue; the TUTT N of PR is dissipating and a new one developing directly to the east around 15N 43W.

Poleward outflow channel is dramtically improving.

This is a setup usually seen with the WPAC big boys.

[KWT]

Looking at the latest loops I think this may well end up hitting PR within the next 6hrs, which may well briefly arrest the developmental stage.

[HurricaneWarning92]

lol so much for the GFS consistency of bringing it to Florida for 15+ runs, and now it heads towards the Carolinas according to the latest run...

[AdamFirst]

lol so much for the GFS consistency of bringing it to Florida for 15+ runs, and now it heads towards the Carolinas according to the latest run...

One run doesn't trump 15 others.

Plus it's still close to the coast.

[SouthDadeFish]

Check out the poleward outflow! Very impressive!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html

GCANE you have it nailed.

[ROCK]

lol so much for the GFS consistency of bringing it to Florida for 15+ runs, and now it heads towards the Carolinas according to the latest run...

yeah 15 runs is about its limit...

[theweatherwatch]

lol so much for the GFS consistency of bringing it to Florida for 15+ runs, and now it heads towards the Carolinas according to the latest run...

Most likely the GFS didn't see the Center relocation further to the north that happened. There for it's further north to start with then the GFS thought it would be which changes the forecast track.

[GCANE]

Core at 1C and moderately broad.

PV anomaly not quite to the surface yet.

RMW at about 225 km.

[Ivanhater]

If this tracks a bit north of the Islands, the models are showing very intense strenghthening on her approach to the SE Coast around South Carolina. What she does in the next day as far as the Islands are concerned is going to be a big factor for the U.S. The strength of the models this afternoon approaching the U.S is downright scary.

[cycloneye]

Looking at the latest loops I think this may well end up hitting PR within the next 6hrs, which may well briefly arrest the developmental stage.

PR doesn't have the high spine that Hispanola has,so It may weaken a tad but not destroy it. Moving a tad slower.

[GCANE]

Check out the poleward outflow! Very impressive!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html

GCANE you have it nailed.

Thanks, this is the basis for it to ramp up big time.

[bella_may]

I find it scary that the ukmet an the gfdl are still showing it going in the gulf

[micktooth]

Looks like the center of circulation might be starting to show up on long range radar from PR

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[plasticup]

The FL vs SC distinction is obviously one of major importance, but remember that those two model solutions differ only by a hundred miles. Coming from the southeast, FL and SC are so close to each other that we shouldn't be surprised that tiny shifts in the models gives these different hits.