ATL: IRENE - Models

[KWT]

00z GFS still not too bad with regards to the possible set-up, takes it mainly overland still and only gives it 18hrs over water between Cuba and Florida...possible enough time for a weak hurricane.

The eCM on the otherhand and the CMC are probably only 50-100 miles east yet likely have a major hurricane going up the east coast...big difference in potenial risk.

[northjaxpro]

By the concensus shifting to the right it sure puts the track of Irene over water more quickly to re-intensify after Hispaniola and the eastern tip of Cuba instead of of her tracking more over land.

Yes, if this scenario unfolded, this would potentially be very worrisome for everyone in the Bahamas and South Florida initially because Irene would re- emerge back over some of the warmest sea surface temps in the basin. The storm would have the opportunity to re-intensify.

[robbielyn]

Guys this is NOT a recurve situation...

The right trend is BAD becasue it'll avoid more land interaction and that will obviously equal a stronger hurricane making landfall, maybe a major into GA/SC, rather then then a moderate-strong TS into Florida...

if this is in regards to what I said kwt west coast won't get much maybe ts winds depending how far ts winds extend. we being on the west side is better for us. but if you were referring to another post sorry. I just don't see it affecting us more like orlando eastward will get the affects.

[jlauderdal]

00z GFS still not too bad with regards to the possible set-up, takes it mainly overland still and only gives it 18hrs over water between Cuba and Florida...possible enough time for a weak hurricane.

The eCM on the otherhand and the CMC are probably only 50-100 miles east yet likely have a major hurricane going up the east coast...big difference in potenial risk.

that setup over the straits is prime for RI, we know RI is nearly impossible to predict but I will be interested to see what the RI modeling does with this system regardless if its right, left or "strait" at the peninsula. model ideas have been very consistent for a couple of days now so lets see if we can get the gfdl on board. The average error rate out in time can be discounted by 50% IMO based on the good consensus we have had on the globals for several days now, they seem locked into the idea of the weakness and where it will actually be in a few days. My 150 miles S of FLL forecast looks really good, problem is I had it heading w-wnw at that point under the ridge instead it will be heading at the peninsula at 150 miles S of FLL, ridging not nearly as strong as i thought it would be, still time but not looking good to avoid a bust.

[jinftl]

you have seen the latest NHC forecast track? A hurricane onshore south of Lake O moving northwest early Friday.

Guys this is NOT a recurve situation...

The right trend is BAD becasue it'll avoid more land interaction and that will obviously equal a stronger hurricane making landfall, maybe a major into GA/SC, rather then then a moderate-strong TS into Florida...

if this is in regards to what I said kwt west coast won't get much maybe ts winds depending how far ts winds extend. we being on the west side is better for us. but if you were referring to another post sorry. I just don't see it affecting us more like orlando eastward will get the affects.

[northjaxpro]

This morning's AFD WFO Tampa, FL excerpt

Long Range (Thursday - Sunday)

GFS SOLUTION PUTS THE
TRACK OF IRENE INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF...MAKING LANDFALL
NEAR MIAMI AND TRACKING ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA...PASSING EAST OF ORLANDO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SPEEDING
PAST JACKSONVILLE AND OUT OF THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT. FROM NHC
FORECAST EXPECT THE INTENSITY OF IRENE TO WEAKEN AFTER CROSSING
HISPANIOLA BUT WILL LIKELY BE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WHEN IT
MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTH FLORIDA REGION. POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE...WITH 60 PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM PASSES THE AREA

[jpigott]

new GFS should be rolling shortly . . .

[jinftl]

That Discussion from NWS Tampa Bay is 2 hours old..NWS Tampa Bay just issued the following Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
505 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
505 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.


THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS FORECASTING TROPICAL STORM IRENE
TO MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND COORDINATE WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER FOR POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS.

This morning's AFD WFO Tampa, FL excerpt

Long Range (Thursday - Sunday)

GFS SOLUTION PUTS THE
TRACK OF IRENE INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF...MAKING LANDFALL
NEAR MIAMI AND TRACKING ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA...PASSING EAST OF ORLANDO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SPEEDING
PAST JACKSONVILLE AND OUT OF THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT. FROM NHC
FORECAST EXPECT THE INTENSITY OF IRENE TO WEAKEN AFTER CROSSING
HISPANIOLA BUT WILL LIKELY BE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WHEN IT
MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTH FLORIDA REGION. POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE...WITH 60 PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM PASSES THE AREA

[northjaxpro]

Charleston, SC AFD snippet from this morning:

TROPICAL CYCLONE IRENE CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN FOR THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD...WITH NUMERICAL MODELS CONSISTENT IN TRACKING THE SYSTEM
WEST/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND POTENTIALLY TOWARD THE
FLORIDA AND/OR SOUTHEAST COAST. FOLLOWING MODEL TRENDS...HAVE
INTRODUCED STEADILY INCREASING EAST WINDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS
EARLY AS THURSDAY.

[jlauderdal]

This morning's AFD WFO Tampa, FL excerpt

Long Range (Thursday - Sunday)

GFS SOLUTION PUTS THE
TRACK OF IRENE INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF...MAKING LANDFALL
NEAR MIAMI AND TRACKING ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA...PASSING EAST OF ORLANDO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SPEEDING
PAST JACKSONVILLE AND OUT OF THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT. FROM NHC
FORECAST EXPECT THE INTENSITY OF IRENE TO WEAKEN AFTER CROSSING
HISPANIOLA BUT WILL LIKELY BE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WHEN IT
MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTH FLORIDA REGION. POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE...WITH 60 PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM PASSES THE AREA

that seems a bit underdone but they have time to correct it,

[northjaxpro]

The NWS Weather Forecast Offices have to put thier products out generally before 4 a.m. local time. Obviously that was well ahead of the new NHC advisory on Irene.

But, the main point from the Tampa forecasters is that they expect the heaviest impacts along the Eastern side of the Florida peninsula as of right now. Of course, this could change, but as of now they are forecasting landfall late Thursday-early Friday near Miami and for Irene to ride north up the coast.

[wzrgirl1]

A media frenzy about to occur here in SF. Oy vey!!

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I asked on the other thread, but better here...

when will the next GVI data injest occur into the models along with the center repositioning?

[maxintensity]

6z GFS is worse case scenario because it just hugs the east coast of florida and stays at major hurricane status during the length of the state. Bottom line is there is something significantly wicked headed to florida.

[ronjon]

06z GFS - Landfall Ft Lauderdale.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

at least nearly all of the state is on the weaker west side of the storm.

[jlauderdal]

06z GFS - Landfall Ft Lauderdale.

trending east, lets keep it heading that way

[northjaxpro]

6z GFS is worse case scenario because it just hugs the east coast of florida and stays at major hurricane status during the length of the state. Bottom line is there is something significantly wicked headed to florida.

My goodness, I am getting the chills just looking at this image valid for this Friday August 26. I shudder to think about what could happen if this even comes close to verifying. This would be the absolute worst case scenario along the entire east coast of Florida if Irene reaches this intensity and hugs the coast riding north. The storm surge from the east on the East Coast of FL would be a major issue if this comes to fruition other than the winds of course.

[ronjon]

HPCs 7 day track.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

[SouthFLTropics]

6z GFS is worse case scenario because it just hugs the east coast of florida and stays at major hurricane status during the length of the state. Bottom line is there is something significantly wicked headed to florida.

My goodness, I am getting the chills just looking at this image valid for this Friday August 26. I shudder to think about what could happen if this even comes close to verifying. This would be the absolute worst case scenario along the entire east coast of Florida if Irene reaches this intensity and hugs the coast riding north. The storm surge from the east on the East Coast of FL would be a major issue if this comes to fruition other than the winds of course.

In reality storm surge along the East coast can be a problem but it is by far not as bad as what you see in the GOM. The reason for this is due to the continental shelf being so close to shore versus the West Coast of Florida where it is quite a ways from shore.

SFT