ATL: IRENE - Models

[Wx_Warrior]

Yo Rock-o....Doing extra stuff at the paper here in Beaumont...And I'm trying to narrow comments to storms that are relevant to the CONUS.

[northjaxpro]

Again to reiterate, LA and points East to the carolinas need to be vigilant...It's likely somewhere along the gulf coast/Fl/carolinas will be impacted by a significant storm in 7-9 days....

Yeah, it is still early, but for the most part Vortex you are right. We are all going to have to be vigilant for the next 7-10 days. Unfortunately, it may be that our incredible luck of being spared a hit by a very signifcant tropical cyclone for nearly the past six years on the CONUS may be coming to an end very soon.

[Aric Dunn]

Now I know there a a lot of Euro huggers in here and they say the Euro starts the trends. Well see

What trend.... technically from day 6 on has been the only change.. and the 12z gfs was first.. lol

up to day five the change is nearly not even worth mentioning since they have all been within 100nm miles...

[jlauderdal]

Weakness over Central Gulf

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP216.gif

yep....and the Texas death ridge is retreating...hmmmm....LA just came into play...

Yep...if this plays out, not good for New Orleans.

when i see these kind of runs i start to get concerned, felt better when we were taking a hit yesterday, still think it goes south of us by at least 150 as i said yesterday but need that ridge to hold strong

[Vortex]

12Z ECM loop..notice the abrupt turn NNW at the very end...



http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

[ROCK]

Now I know there a a lot of Euro huggers in here and they say the Euro starts the trends. Well see

We will......EURO saw Ike way before any other globals....you see an EURO outlier like this with a realistic approach to land interaction with a developing system....I take notice....

[maxintensity]

GFS has been in the GOM quite a few runs too so I think it's fair to say that the GOM could be open for business next week. I would love to see some hwrf and gfdl runs to see what they would do intensity wise. That would be fun.

[Vortex]

anyone have the extended 12Z CMC?? Thanks

[Wx_Warrior]

Alot will change and everyone should know that. 10+ out is plenty of time for flops and flips...But it is the EURO

[Scorpion]

anyone have the extended 12Z CMC?? Thanks

Has it off FL east coast

[caneseddy]

anyone have the extended 12Z CMC?? Thanks

I think Ivan posted it earlier and it had a strengthening system heading for SE Florida, if I'm not mistaken

[Aric Dunn]

Actually if you look at the loop. it opens it up before the islands then quickly develops as it approaches the NE islands and it takes a quick jump WNW.... unfortunately the next frame it over Hispaniola which I think is the culprit for the west shift afterwards. the energy in the run seems to get stuck on the mountains and the EUro spits it out on the south side rather than the north side like the previous runs... because the ridging is almost identical to the 00z at that time. so again the Synoptic set ups has not changed since basically monday.

[micktooth]

August 29, 2005...Katrina
August 29, 2011...???
I don't like models bringing big storms towards NOLA, too many terrible memories.

[Ivanhater]

Now I know there a a lot of Euro huggers in here and they say the Euro starts the trends. Well see

What trend.... technically from day 6 on has been the only change.. and the 12z gfs was first.. lol

up to day five the change is nearly not even worth mentioning since they have all been within 100nm miles...

I said let's see if it's a START to a trend

[KWT]

Well I suppose you could argue there has been a slight westward shift overall, with the ECM still swinging all ove rthe place from run to run.

First 5 days there is broadly good agreement on a W/WNW track into Hispaniola with it developing to a greater or lesser extent in the E.Caribbean.

Beyond that and some real uncertainty...12z ECM brings a new solution into play BUT its one that has been heavily hinted at by the GFS ensembles recently.

[wxman57]

anyone have the extended 12Z CMC?? Thanks

Try this link to the Penn State Ewall:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMCT ... cloop.html

[Tireman4]

Weakness over Central Gulf

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP216.gif

yep....and the Texas death ridge is retreating...hmmmm....LA just came into play...

Yep...if this plays out, not good for New Orleans.

I, for one, do not wish this ( or anything for that matter ) on anyone, but are my eye decieving me? Is that High Pressure Ridge of Death retreating? For that ( and three LONG months worth), I am happy. Sorry to be selfish..

[Vortex]

12Z CMC just south of eastern cuba and intensifying...appearts to turn NNW at the end of run and exraploated fl and possibly EGOM would be targets...Anyone have beyond 144....


Loop:


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MLoop.html

[Vortex]

anyone have the extended 12Z CMC?? Thanks

Try this link to the Penn State Ewall:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMCT ... cloop.html

Thanks 57

[wxman57]

I, for one, do not wish this ( or anything for that matter ) on anyone, but are my eye decieving me? Is that High Pressure Ridge of Death retreating? For that ( and three LONG months worth), I am happy. Sorry to be selfish..

No, it's not retreating yet, but the Euro is forecasting it to move west next week. Of course, the models have been forecasting that ridge to move west (in the 10 day forecast) for the past month.