ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[maxintensity]

Jevo, it has it much much sooner than that. You might not see it clearly on the graphics your posting but the GFS sees 95L very clearly. No mystery there.

Yes,you can track the low pressure all the way to the Lesser Antilles and starts slowly to gain strengh from there.

you can definitely see little circles all the way there nothing to speak of though.. could easily be confused for an ULL.. but I don't believe the GFS has a grasp on the system yet

Nope not an ULL at all. Like I said you cant see it on the graphics your posting. This link is at hour 36 and you can see it crystal clear. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfstropical850mbVortSLP036.gif

[Gustywind]

Katia likely to pass just off East Coast

Dr. Rick Knabb, Hurricane Expert, The Weather Channel

Sep 5, 2011 5:01 pm ET


ATLANTIC BASIN


* A well-defined tropical wave is over the eastern Atlantic a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, with a closed circulation apparently forming along with increasing thunderstorm activity. A depression appears likely to form within the next couple of days as the system moves westward. It could reach the Leeward Islands by this weekend, but it is too soon to determine what other land areas might eventually be affected.

[rainstorm]

how about some maps?

[Jevo]

@ Max

If this is what youre calling a surface feature then I do not agree.. if that's the case there are about 4 in the basin



I agree we have maria soon I just dont think the GFS is showing it

[maxintensity]

@ Max

If this is what youre calling a surface feature then I do not agree.. if that's the case there are about 4 in the basin

I agree we have maria soon I just dont think the GFS is showing it

That is exactly 95L and I do not believe the link I posted could be anymore clearer. It's puzzling how anyone could say the GFS is not showing 95L at the 36 hour mark that I posted. Anyway, to each his own I guess.

[tdess02]

This from New Orleans Weather Service discussion:
A period of very nice early Fall weather is in store for the region
with lows in the 50s and 60s the next few days while highs will be
in the upper 70s and 80s. Humidity levels will be low during the
period. This will occur as a broad upper low/trough...associated
with what was Lee...becomes positioned over eastern Continental U.S. During the
week and into the weekend. Models have been indicating the potential
for more tropical development in the south Gulf over the upcoming
weekend and into next week. Stay tuned. 11

[ROCK]

Looks like no worries for the USA this run. Our 6 year luck looks to continue if GFS is right.

you hanging your hat on one run of the 18z GFS in the long range? good luck with that....

[ROCK]

@ Max

If this is what youre calling a surface feature then I do not agree.. if that's the case there are about 4 in the basin

I agree we have maria soon I just dont think the GFS is showing it

That is exactly 95L and I do not believe the link I posted could be anymore clearer. It's puzzling how anyone could say the GFS is not showing 95L at the 36 hour mark that I posted. Anyway, to each his own I guess.

let it go and lets move along discussing 95L..... thanks

[maxintensity]

Looks like no worries for the USA this run. Our 6 year luck looks to continue if GFS is right.

you hanging your hat on one run of the 18z GFS in the long range? good luck with that....

Nope looking at the overall pattern. Pattern fits storms failing to enter the caribbean and instead head north of the islands before recurving. That has been the patter for 3 years and no sign of any change.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Jevo]

@ Max

If this is what youre calling a surface feature then I do not agree.. if that's the case there are about 4 in the basin

I agree we have maria soon I just dont think the GFS is showing it

That is exactly 95L and I do not believe the link I posted could be anymore clearer. It's puzzling how anyone could say the GFS is not showing 95L at the 36 hour mark that I posted. Anyway, to each his own I guess.

let it go and lets move along discussing 95L..... thanks

We'll just see what King Euro has to say about this

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

We'll just see what King Euro has to say about this

Lets see if it sticks with the 12Z forecast moving the system through the Caribbean or go with the GFS moving it northern of the Caribbean

[Jevo]

@ Max

If this is what youre calling a surface feature then I do not agree.. if that's the case there are about 4 in the basin

I agree we have maria soon I just dont think the GFS is showing it

That is exactly 95L and I do not believe the link I posted could be anymore clearer. It's puzzling how anyone could say the GFS is not showing 95L at the 36 hour mark that I posted. Anyway, to each his own I guess.

I know TCs on models runs when I see them... and sir that is not one.. cause if it is then we're in trouble cause there are 3 more out there



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Hurricaneman]

We'll just see what King Euro has to say about this

Lets see if it sticks with the 12Z forecast moving the system through the Caribbean or go with the GFS moving it northern of the Caribbean

I think it sticks with the 12z forecast and reason being the GFS bias of breaking down ridges too quickly

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[rainstorm]

here is a map. that is a big trough at 168.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=168hr

[cycloneye]

18z NOGAPS.



Saved image.

[gatorcane]

The 12z FIM has a similar track to Katia, just a little bit more west where it goes through the ne leewards then out to sea.

Seems reasonable to me especially if it strengthens more in the MDR. The trend with the models right now is definitely less ridging across the Atlantic, especially in the medium to long range

[Jevo]

18z NOGAPS.

http://img198.imageshack.us/img198/9245 ... oplant.gif

Saved image.

WTF is that over my house in SoFLA

[cycloneye]

Remains at 60%

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI

[DESTRUCTION5]

18z NOGAPS.

http://img198.imageshack.us/img198/9245 ... oplant.gif

Saved image.

WTF is that over my house in SoFLA

NOGAPS Vomit..

[Jevo]

18z NOGAPS.

http://img198.imageshack.us/img198/9245 ... oplant.gif

Saved image.

WTF is that over my house in SoFLA

NOGAPS Vomit..

stupid model go scarin fine folks like myself