ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion

[Air Force Met]

They will likely find a depression when recon gets there later. it clearly has a well defined circ.. convection is a little meager but persistent. given the model support and current trends they will likely upgrade. I guess the only thing that would hold them back is it being still attached to the frontal boundary a little.

I doubt it. It doesn't look totally tropical to me yet. It still appears to be attached to the front and its not very well organized. Buoy 42055 has a dewpoint in the low 70's and convection is sparse so its not very tropical. I would imagine they will take their time...especially given the amount of dry air just to the W and N of the low. As WXMAN57 said...there are some orographic effects happening here too...

[T-man]

We here on the bayou appreciate the westward trend, we are drying out from TS Lee and would not welcome another weekend like last weekend. It was more like Labor Days, Not Labor Day!

[Aric Dunn]

They will likely find a depression when recon gets there later. it clearly has a well defined circ.. convection is a little meager but persistent. given the model support and current trends they will likely upgrade. I guess the only thing that would hold them back is it being still attached to the frontal boundary a little.

I doubt it. It doesn't look totally tropical to me yet. It still appears to be attached to the front and its not very well organized. Buoy 42055 has a dewpoint in the low 70's and convection is sparse so its not very tropical. I would imagine they will take their time...especially given the amount of dry air just to the W and N of the low. As WXMAN57 said...there are some orographic effects happening here too...

yeah just checked that buoy. hmmm.. well maybe they go STD ?

[ROCK]

Now lets see if the CMC jumps.

[Stormcenter]

Same here.......the EURO was out to lunch on those first few runs. IMO

Euro looks alot more reasonable. I never bought into this system making it to the northern gulf coast.

[clfenwi]

URNT15 KNHC 071850
AF300 01IIA INVEST HDOB 16 20110907
184030 2051N 09136W 9694 00336 //// +240 //// 147027 028 029 001 01
184100 2050N 09138W 9692 00337 //// +239 //// 147028 029 030 001 05
184130 2049N 09139W 9710 00320 //// +239 //// 145028 029 029 003 01
184200 2048N 09140W 9708 00320 //// +238 //// 145028 029 031 001 01
184230 2047N 09141W 9664 00360 //// +234 //// 145028 028 029 001 01
184300 2045N 09142W 9710 00317 //// +237 //// 145028 030 029 002 01
184330 2045N 09144W 9694 00330 //// +236 //// 145029 030 030 001 01
184400 2043N 09145W 9706 00317 //// +235 //// 143029 030 030 000 05
184430 2042N 09146W 9684 00337 //// +235 //// 142029 030 029 001 01
184500 2041N 09147W 9704 00317 //// +235 //// 137029 030 030 001 01
184530 2040N 09148W 9698 00321 //// +235 //// 137029 030 030 001 01
184600 2039N 09150W 9705 00314 //// +239 //// 141030 031 029 000 01
184630 2038N 09151W 9665 00348 //// +236 //// 139029 031 029 001 01
184700 2037N 09152W 9703 00313 //// +238 //// 139028 029 028 000 01
184730 2036N 09153W 9716 00300 //// +239 //// 141027 028 029 001 01
184800 2035N 09154W 9684 00328 //// +235 //// 149025 027 027 001 01
184830 2034N 09155W 9721 00294 //// +238 //// 152023 024 025 001 01
184900 2033N 09156W 9694 00316 //// +238 //// 156022 022 026 000 01
184930 2032N 09157W 9686 00324 //// +236 //// 161019 020 021 001 01
185000 2031N 09159W 9705 00306 //// +238 //// 161017 017 021 001 01

[clfenwi]

URNT15 KNHC 071900
AF300 01IIA INVEST HDOB 17 20110907
185030 2030N 09200W 9716 00295 //// +239 //// 160015 015 019 001 01
185100 2029N 09201W 9688 00320 //// +236 //// 165015 015 019 001 01
185130 2028N 09202W 9704 00305 //// +236 //// 165012 014 015 001 05
185200 2027N 09203W 9690 00318 //// +235 //// 172009 010 011 000 01
185230 2026N 09205W 9704 00305 //// +235 //// 179007 008 008 000 01
185300 2025N 09206W 9700 00308 //// +233 //// 176006 007 012 001 05
185330 2025N 09208W 9695 00313 //// +232 //// 155005 006 009 000 01
185400 2025N 09209W 9700 00308 0047 +233 +168 137003 003 008 001 01
185430 2024N 09211W 9691 00316 0049 +231 -028 125003 004 009 000 00
185500 2024N 09213W 9701 00307 0049 +234 -016 104003 004 008 000 00
185530 2024N 09214W 9697 00311 0047 +235 +212 110004 005 008 000 01
185600 2024N 09216W 9701 00308 //// +235 //// 114004 005 009 001 01
185630 2023N 09218W 9704 00305 //// +235 //// 123004 005 007 001 05
185700 2023N 09219W 9695 00313 //// +235 //// 138004 005 009 001 01
185730 2022N 09221W 9698 00310 //// +235 //// 132004 005 011 000 01
185800 2021N 09222W 9692 00315 //// +234 //// 122004 005 008 001 01
185830 2020N 09223W 9676 00330 //// +230 //// 150004 004 011 000 01
185900 2019N 09225W 9687 00320 //// +232 //// 132003 003 011 000 01
185930 2018N 09226W 9705 00302 //// +233 //// 139004 004 014 001 01
190000 2017N 09227W 9686 00321 //// +232 //// 152004 005 012 000 01

[perk]

Now lets see if the CMC jumps.

Rock it's looking alot like 96L will stay in the southern GOM, we can only hope that it moves a little further north and throw us a few heavy rain bands.

[Aric Dunn]

[somethingfunny]

The Euro just got punked by the GFS again. As the "king", it's too proud to make a 180 degree shift so it's pretending to "trend" southwest, but it'll fall in line behind the GFS and hit the Veracruz area with 96L on the 0z run.

This graphic from Fort Worth's NWS office helps to explain why the Euro's 12z solution today is completely cracked out:

[Wthrman13]

Euro finally making some sense. Looks like the GFS may win this one.[/quote

.....never thought I would hear those words A piece of crap model beats King Euro...say it ain't so

Sorry, but the GFS is hardly a "piece of crap". It's one of the best models out there.

[clfenwi]

URNT15 KNHC 071910
AF300 01IIA INVEST HDOB 18 20110907
190030 2016N 09229W 9705 00304 //// +234 //// 142004 005 011 001 01
190100 2015N 09230W 9684 00323 //// +231 //// 125004 005 012 001 01
190130 2014N 09231W 9704 00305 //// +232 //// 242001 002 009 000 01
190200 2013N 09233W 9697 00311 //// +234 //// 261001 002 010 000 01
190230 2012N 09234W 9693 00315 //// +235 //// 289003 004 008 000 01
190300 2011N 09235W 9699 00309 //// +235 //// 283004 005 008 000 01
190330 2010N 09236W 9712 00299 //// +236 //// 271004 005 009 000 01
190400 2009N 09238W 9708 00301 //// +236 //// 271005 005 008 000 01
190430 2008N 09239W 9688 00320 //// +235 //// 274006 006 009 001 01
190500 2007N 09240W 9696 00313 //// +236 //// 284006 007 009 001 01
190530 2006N 09241W 9702 00309 //// +235 //// 280007 008 011 000 01
190600 2004N 09242W 9711 00301 //// +235 //// 282006 007 013 000 01
190630 2003N 09243W 9685 00325 //// +235 //// 274006 007 010 000 01
190700 2002N 09245W 9701 00311 //// +235 //// 281008 008 010 000 01
190730 2001N 09246W 9707 00306 //// +235 //// 278008 008 010 000 01
190800 2000N 09247W 9699 00314 //// +235 //// 277009 010 011 000 05
190830 1959N 09248W 9706 00307 //// +235 //// 261010 011 012 000 01
190900 1958N 09249W 9708 00306 //// +235 //// 258011 011 016 000 01
190930 1957N 09250W 9693 00319 //// +233 //// 265013 014 015 000 01
191000 1956N 09252W 9712 00302 //// +235 //// 265014 014 017 000 01

[Stormcenter]

I believe the GFS and EURO are 2 of the NHC's top models.

[lonelymike]

Euro finally making some sense. Looks like the GFS may win this one.[/quote

.....never thought I would hear those words A piece of crap model beats King Euro...say it ain't so

Sorry, but the GFS is hardly a "piece of crap". It's one of the best models out there.

Hey I'm just a frustrated participant in amateur hour here at the zoo. Whaddya I know

[Extratropical94]

Albeit weak, a surface circulation is evident based on recon observations.

[craptacular]

190030 2016N 09229W 9705 00304 //// +234 //// 142004 005 011 001 01
190100 2015N 09230W 9684 00323 //// +231 //// 125004 005 012 001 01
190130 2014N 09231W 9704 00305 //// +232 //// 242001 002 009 000 01
190200 2013N 09233W 9697 00311 //// +234 //// 261001 002 010 000 01
190230 2012N 09234W 9693 00315 //// +235 //// 289003 004 008 000 01

Sharp wind shift there at 20.2 N, 92.5 W.

[somethingfunny]

1. Denial — "I feel fine."; "This can't be happening, not to me."; "The Euro just had one bad run, the GFS is still garbage."
Denial is usually only a temporary defense for the individual. This feeling is generally replaced with heightened awareness of possessions and individuals that will be left behind after death.
2. Anger — "Why me? It's not fair!"; "How can this happen to me?"; '"Who is to blame?"; "The GFS is trash!!!!"
Once in the second stage, the individual recognizes that denial cannot continue. Because of anger, the person is very difficult to care for due to misplaced feelings of rage and envy.
3. Bargaining — "I'll do anything for a few more years."; "I will give my life savings if..."; "I'll pull the plug on you, supercomputer, if you don't bring this storm to Texas"
The third stage involves the hope that the individual can somehow postpone or delay death. Usually, the negotiation for an extended life is made with a higher power in exchange for a reformed lifestyle. Psychologically, the individual is saying, "I understand I will die, but if I could just do something to buy more time..."
4. Depression — "I'm so sad, why bother with anything?"; "I'm going to die soon so whats the point... What's the point?"; "I miss my loved one, why go on?"; "Season Cancel."
During the fourth stage, the dying person begins to understand the certainty of death. Because of this, the individual may become silent, refuse visitors and spend much of the time crying and grieving. This process allows the dying person to disconnect from things of love and affection. It is not recommended to attempt to cheer up an individual who is in this stage. It is an important time for grieving that must be processed.
5. Acceptance — "It's going to be okay."; "I can't fight it, I may as well prepare for it."; "*checks the GFS and the Euro and weighs them equally*"
In this last stage, the individual begins to come to terms with her/his mortality or that of a loved one.

Give the Euro huggers time.

[dwsqos2]

191630 1937N 09257W 9884 00151 //// +220 //// 263049 051 044 000 05
191700 1936N 09257W 9875 00162 //// +215 //// 269051 053 045 001 05

Rather strong winds; 53 knots at the 988 mb level.

[cycloneye]

We have west winds found by recon!

190030 2016N 09229W 9705 00304 //// +234 //// 142004 005 011 001 01
190100 2015N 09230W 9684 00323 //// +231 //// 125004 005 012 001 01
190130 2014N 09231W 9704 00305 //// +232 //// 242001 002 009 000 01
190200 2013N 09233W 9697 00311 //// +234 //// 261001 002 010 000 01
190230 2012N 09234W 9693 00315 //// +235 //// 289003 004 008 000 01
190300 2011N 09235W 9699 00309 //// +235 //// 283004 005 008 000 01

[clfenwi]

URNT15 KNHC 071920
AF300 01IIA INVEST HDOB 19 20110907
191030 1955N 09253W 9751 00266 //// +235 //// 260015 017 020 001 01
191100 1953N 09254W 9737 00280 //// +235 //// 257017 017 023 000 01
191130 1952N 09254W 9763 00257 //// +236 //// 256019 020 024 000 01
191200 1950N 09255W 9771 00251 //// +235 //// 259021 022 025 000 05
191230 1949N 09255W 9767 00253 //// +234 //// 263025 027 027 000 01
191300 1947N 09255W 9795 00229 //// +228 //// 263031 033 032 002 05
191330 1946N 09256W 9788 00235 //// +228 //// 264034 036 034 002 05
191400 1944N 09256W 9784 00241 //// +226 //// 261039 040 037 000 05
191430 1943N 09256W 9866 00167 //// +228 //// 261041 041 037 001 01
191500 1942N 09256W 9904 00134 //// +230 //// 261043 044 040 003 05
191530 1940N 09256W 9901 00136 //// +227 //// 262044 046 041 001 05
191600 1939N 09256W 9891 00145 //// +225 //// 262047 049 044 003 05
191630 1937N 09257W 9884 00151 //// +220 //// 263049 051 044 000 05
191700 1936N 09257W 9875 00162 //// +215 //// 269051 053 045 001 05
191730 1934N 09257W 9893 00146 //// +222 //// 269049 051 042 003 05
191800 1932N 09257W 9896 00142 //// +220 //// 269047 050 041 006 01
191830 1931N 09257W 9901 00141 //// +220 //// 268045 045 039 004 05
191900 1929N 09257W 9892 00149 //// +220 //// 268045 047 044 002 01
191930 1928N 09257W 9893 00150 //// +217 //// 270046 047 044 006 01
192000 1926N 09257W 9904 00139 //// +217 //// 272046 047 046 010 05
$$