ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[tolakram]

Live visible loop shows the vortex moving south.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=7

[SouthFLTropics]

I agree that a Mitch like TS for Florida is very likely...A fast moving storm heading off to the NE across the peninsula. For the short time that Mitch was here it packed a pretty good punch. Just like Wilma I think this thing will be enhanced by the cold front sweeping through and the shear will have a minimal effect on it since it will be moving in the same direction as the shear. I think we are looking at Mitch's or Wilma's little sister here...albeit much weaker.

SFT

[mutley]

Is this a vortex being "spit out" west of the convection or is this really the only LLC?

Do current surface obs support one possibility or the other?

[Sanibel]

The upper presentation is good but there's nothing supporting it. Took a hit overland. Cold pocket of water north of Yucatan should delay rebound. From shape it looks like one that could snap together and spin, but I don't think it will.

Very light rain here. Overcast, little wind.


Disclaimer: Amateur opinion.

[Rainband]

Looks like the front is starting to push the convection NE with or without a defined center. IMO recon will find a weak LLC along the W side of the deep convection and a low end TS will landfall just S of Tampa.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

Thats not the cold front..

[cycloneye]

This morning's discussion of 95L by Dr Jeff Masters:

A large low pressure system centered about 100 miles north of Mexico's Yucatan peninsula, Invest 95L, is bringing heavy rains to Western Cuba and South Florida. Rainfall amounts in excess of 3 inches have been common across South Florida since Saturday; Miami has picked up 3.40" as of 10 am EDT this morning, and Key West Naval Air Facility recorded 9.72". Rains of 5 - 8 inches have fallen over much of the Florida Keys and Central Cuba since Sunday, according to radar rainfall estimates from the Key West Radar. Long-range radar out of Key West shows rain is affecting most of South Florida south of Fort Myers, but there is no obvious spin to the echoes, and no evidence of organized spiral bands forming. Satellite loops show that 95L has a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that is increasing in areal coverage. There is no evidence of a well-formed surface circulation trying to develop, though surface observations in the Western Caribbean do show that 95L has a broad counter-clockwise circulation. Two ships to the north of 95L's center measured sustained winds in excess of 30 mph this morning, but no land stations are reporting sustained winds over 30 mph. Water temperatures over the regions are near 29°C, which is plenty warm to support a tropical storm.

Wind shear over 95L is currently a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and is expected to stay in the moderate range through Tuesday night. NHC is giving the system a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and has scheduled a hurricane hunter aircraft to investigate the system this afternoon at 2 pm EDT. The models are generally showing only weak development of 95L. The storm is currently moving north at 5 - 10 mph, but should turn to the northeast by Tuesday afternoon, as it gets caught up by an approaching trough of low pressure. This trough should pull 95L into the west coast of Florida on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning between Fort Myers and St. Marks. Portions of southwest Florida could receive up to 5 inches of rain from 95L; locations to the north of Tampa will less rain, due to the large amount of dry air over the northern Gulf of Mexico that will affect the northwestern portion of the storm. Once 95L meets up with the trough, wind shear will rise sharply, and it is unlikely 95L will be able to grow any stronger than a 50 mph tropical storm before landfall occurs. It is more likely that 95L will have top winds of 35 - 45 mph Tuesday night near the time of landfall.

[xironman]

Live visible loop shows the vortex moving south.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=7

I am not buying that being the long term llc, looks like a vort being dragged around the greater gyre. There does seem to be some turning starting to the NE maybe around 23/87. But the plane will tell for sure.

[Rainband]

St Marks and Ft myers.????? Big cone

[wxman57]

St Marks and Ft myers.????? Big cone

Remember, the cone only represents the 66.7% track error over the past 5 years. It doesn't change from storm to storm. It will stay the same through 2011, possibly changing next year when the 5-year error drops 2006 and adds 2011.

That little vortex near 22N/89.4W is probably not THE center, but it is the best rotation I can see. There may be a weak low near 23N/87W or so. Doesn't appear to qualify for a TD as the LLC is quite poorly-defined with no convection in the vicinity.

[psyclone]

St Marks and Ft myers.????? Big cone

Remember, the cone only represents the 66.7% track error over the past 5 years. It doesn't change from storm to storm. It will stay the same through 2011, possibly changing next year when the 5-year error drops 2006 and adds 2011.

That little vortex near 22N/89.4W is probably not THE center, but it is the best rotation I can see. There may be a weak low near 23N/87W or so. Doesn't appear to qualify for a TD as the LLC is quite poorly-defined with no convection in the vicinity.

Rainband was referring to Jeff Masters as there is no official cone at this point.

[Rainband]

St Marks and Ft myers.????? Big cone

Remember, the cone only represents the 66.7% track error over the past 5 years. It doesn't change from storm to storm. It will stay the same through 2011, possibly changing next year when the 5-year error drops 2006 and adds 2011.

That little vortex near 22N/89.4W is probably not THE center, but it is the best rotation I can see. There may be a weak low near 23N/87W or so. Doesn't appear to qualify for a TD as the LLC is quite poorly-defined with no convection in the vicinity.

I know Thanks Doesn't look like this is going to make it any further north than maybe hernando county if that. Is the high moving east??

[cycloneye]

Todays TCPOD has two more missions for this system on tuesday that will be in the morning and late afternoon.

NOUS42 KNHC 171500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT MON 17 OCTOBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z OCTOBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-139

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 71--
A. 18/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0218A CYCLONE
C. 18/1000Z
D. 25.3N 87.0W
E. 18/1130Z TO 18/1600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 72--
A. 19/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0318A CYCLONE
C. 18/2200Z
D. 27.5N 84.5W
E. 18/2330Z TO 19/0400Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

[cycloneye]

wzrgirl1, to let you know that I split your post and my reply from the main 95L recon thread to make a 95L recon discussion thread.

[cycloneye]

I may know why of the delay as plane was supposed to depart at 11:30 AM EDT. They had the 21.0N-86.0W position at yesterdays TCPOD. As the disturbance has moved more north faster,is a little closer to base and they can depart later.

[wxman57]

It seems that the first recon plane to a suspicious disturbance always has some sort of technical issue. I doubt the plane will find a well-defined LLC, assuming it ever takes off. That "naked" little vortex heading south toward the Yucatan Peninsula near 21.8N/89.3W may well be THE LLC. Perhaps recon was canceled once visible satellite images were examined?

[cycloneye]

It seems that the first recon plane to a suspicious disturbance always has some sort of technical issue.

This year it has to be a record of cases of technnical problems. I cant believe that this afternoons mission will suffer the same fate.

[cycloneye]

Plane is flying.

Decoded observation.

Observation Time: Monday, 16:30Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 26.1N 89.1W
Location: 274 miles (441 km) to the SSE (168°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,010 meters
Flight Level Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph) (Bearing was unavailable.)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -16°C
Flight Level Dew Point: Is most likely too dry to measure. If it is instead colder than -49.4°C, it will appear in the remarks section.
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,570 geopotential meters

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 23 knots (~ 26.5mph)

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...

DEW POINT NEG 53 DEGREES C

[cycloneye]

Good news that plane is flying. Who wants to post the OB's?

Here is the site where they post decoded observations.

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/

[westwind]

I will try to be here to post the first pass thru low.

I can do obs for the next hour if you want.

[westwind]

Missed some I'll try to find them

000
URNT15 KNHC 171647
AF307 01JJA INVEST HDOB 06 20111017
163730 2526N 08854W 4098 07380 0369 -139 -330 240013 014 032 002 00
163800 2524N 08854W 4100 07379 0370 -137 -302 232013 014 031 004 00
163830 2522N 08853W 4099 07379 0369 -139 -183 226014 015 031 004 00
163900 2519N 08852W 4098 07379 0368 -140 -157 218014 014 027 000 00
163930 2517N 08851W 4099 07377 0368 -140 -156 210014 014 023 000 00
164000 2515N 08851W 4098 07379 0368 -140 -155 195012 013 021 000 00
164030 2512N 08850W 4098 07380 0369 -140 -157 181012 012 021 000 00
164100 2510N 08849W 4100 07377 0369 -140 -156 178010 012 023 000 00
164130 2507N 08849W 4099 07381 0369 -140 -155 179009 010 026 000 00
164200 2505N 08848W 4099 07379 0369 -140 -152 176010 010 024 000 00
164230 2503N 08847W 4097 07381 0368 -140 -151 177009 010 023 000 00
164300 2500N 08846W 4099 07376 0367 -140 -149 178009 010 022 000 00
164330 2458N 08846W 4098 07376 0366 -140 -149 175006 007 023 000 00
164400 2456N 08845W 4100 07375 0366 -135 -151 155006 007 023 000 00
164430 2453N 08844W 4101 07374 0365 -140 -150 162006 006 023 000 00
164500 2451N 08843W 4098 07376 0365 -136 -155 150005 005 022 000 00
164530 2448N 08843W 4099 07374 0364 -136 -156 131005 005 023 000 00
164600 2446N 08842W 4101 07371 0363 -135 -155 146005 005 024 000 00
164630 2444N 08841W 4098 07378 0366 -135 -161 180005 006 024 000 00
164700 2441N 08840W 4098 07379 0367 -135 -164 183004 004 024 000 00