WED-SAT...THE FORECAST FOR LATE WEEK WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
FUTURE MOVEMENTS OF TC IRENE CURRENTLY JUST SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO
RICO. THE NHC FORECAST HAS IRENE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CUBA ON
WEDNESDAY...EMERGING INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND APPROACHING S
FL LATE THURSDAY. LTST GUID SUGGESTS MORE EAST BIAS TOWARD MEDIUM
RANGE SOLNS AND THIS TREND INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A LONGER
DURATION OPEN WATER TRACK DEMONSTRATES THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY
ON FUTURE EFFECTS FOR THE IMMEDIATE AREA. EVERYONE SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR NHC FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST ON IRENE.
NWS Miami disco
TROPICAL STORM IRENE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST
AT 17 MPH. ALTHOUGH THE STORM HAS WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES IT
STILL LACKS DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE FORECAST
REASONING SINCE THIS MORNING IS VERY MUCH UNCHANGED. THERE IS A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY. HOWEVER...A
HURRICANE LANDFALL IN THE SOUTHEASTERN US IS POSSIBLE, INCLUDING
SOUTH FLORIDA.
THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY SINCE A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK COULD CHANGE
CONSIDERABLE THE TEMPERATURES. NO CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE
EXTENDED TEMPERATURES BECAUSE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.
THE 12Z GFS SHOWS A MODEST SHIFT TO THE EAST IN THE TRACK OF THE
STORM. THIS NEW TRACK OF THE GFS IS MORE SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF
BUT THE ECMWF STILL KEEPS THE STORM CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA THAN THE 12Z GFS. THE WINDS IN THE GRIDS MATCH WELL THE
00Z GFS...WHICH MATCHED VERY WELL THE 11 AM NHC ADVISORY TRACK. IT
IS PROBABLY BETTER TO SEE A TREND IN THE MODELS RATHER THAN 1 OR 2
SHIFTS BEFORE MAKING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS AT
THIS TIME.
THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY WITH IRENE AT THE CURRENT TIME ARE A
SERIES OF TROUGHS THAT ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE EASTERN US IN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE BIG QUESTION TO BE ANSWERED IS HOW THESE
TROUGHS OR WEAKNESSES WILL IMPACT THE TRACK OF IRENE ...
NWS Jacksonville disco
.LONG TERM...ALL EYES FOCUSED ON FLORIDA AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AS WELL AS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FROM NHC ADVANCE IRENE
NORTHWARD TOWARDS FLORIDA OR ITS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THERE
ARE MYRIAD SCENARIOS AND IRENE FIRST MUST OVERCOME MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF IRENE. LOCAL AND MARINE
INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FORECASTS AND THE PROGRESS OF
THIS FEATURE.
