ATL: IRENE - Models

[northjaxpro]

You are right SFLTropics. Definitely Gulf Coast surge is significantly worst than what it could be on the East Coast of FL.

But, there would be significant enough of a surge to back up water into the St. John's River here in Jax should such a storm that intense hugs up the coast like being shown on that model. It would cause very significant problems here I can assure you.

[gatorcane]

Well the ECMWF and GFS do not want to budge on their track towards South Florida do they?

The intensity is insane. As I said last night, hard to move the track west when the two most reliable models continue to show the same solution run after run after run after run,

If anything they shifted east some.

[SFLcane]

06z landfall in sfl...

[tolakram]

Saved ECM 144 ... Georgia?

[rockyman]

6z HWRF:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... fLoop.html

[Scorpion]

This could turn into an absolute nightmare with regards to planning and evacuation, kind of like Floyd. Just a tiny change in angle results in a landfall either in SFL or Georgia.

[TheShrimper]

6z HWRF:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... fLoop.html

15 MB drop while traversing Hispanola?......... don't think so.

[rockyman]

6z GFDL is running...watch it load here:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... lLoop.html

[Emmett_Brown]

A critical 24 hours coming up for the track of Irene. Interesting that the timing continues to speed up. GFS is now showing Irene reaching SFL at 6z on Friday 8/26. This is again 12-24 faster than recent runs in the past couple of days. Irene is moving at 21 mph. The models are still playing catch up with her forward speed, not to mention the northward initial shift due to center reformation; so runs will still change slightly regarding track and timing. Also interesting is that the 0z and 12z runs of the Euro and the GFS have shown differing strength of the ridge/trough for a couple of days now. Will the 12z runs follow the pattern and show a stronger ridge on their next run, or is the stronger trough a trend instead?

[rockyman]

GFDL hits Hispaniola this time...running from east to west over the entire island...then continues WNW into eastern Cuba...starts curving NW over Cuba...heading for the Florida Keys

5 days:

[tolakram]

Saved GFS 120H

[rockyman]

06z GFDL ends run just off the SW coast of Florida...rapidly deepening...heading NNW:

[ronjon]

Here's the complete animated track of the 06z GFDL - shows trough lifting out and ridging building back in 4 days. Ridge over Tx retrogrades NW into Co.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfdl/06zgfdl2500mbHGHTPMSLgfdlLoop.html

[miamijaaz]

Question for the experts:

At this point is there anything in the forecast that could recurve Irene and keep her offshore from Florida and the SE US? Thanks.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

GFDL- Tampa>?

[SFLcane]

Wow this really has my attention here now in SFL.

[rockyman]

Where can I find the raw data points for GFDL (with lat/long position and direction)? I lost that bookmark

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Question for the experts:

At this point is there anything in the forecast that could recurve Irene and keep her offshore from Florida and the SE US? Thanks.

(Not an expert)


given the model concensus. no. Its just a matter of who gets whacked. It doesnt look like USA is going to miss this one.

The best scenario, goes over Hispanola and Cuba and dies there IMO.

[ronjon]

Question for the experts:

At this point is there anything in the forecast that could recurve Irene and keep her offshore from Florida and the SE US? Thanks.

No, according to the models. The Atlantic ridge is building back in after 4-5 days. Even if it stays offshore FL, it'll still likely move N-NW until landfall further up the coast near Ga/SC.

[sittingduck]

The models are having a rap music war - East Coast/West Coast lol. With florida it doesn't take much change to shift coasts. Now the waiting begins.