ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[Air Force Met]

I would agree with that....you still thinking a mini Cat 1?

80 MPH...give or take 15...but probably more with the +15...border line 2. I still see a very favorable upper level environment starting tomorrow. It is not out of the rhelm of possibilities that Don could go off once it nears 25N...sometime tmw afternoon...where the higher TCHP's are.

Call me crazy.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I believe that Don will intensify into a minimal hurricane with 75-80 mph at this time, mostly due to dry air. However, considering that tropical systems tend to fend off dry air, this may be a little low, especially if this system decides to rapidly intensify. Will be interesting to see how this plays out...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[djmikey]

Local met here in Beaumont said AGAIN, landfall to be around Brownsville! I beg to differ! That's TOOO far south!

[drezee]

I would agree with that....you still thinking a mini Cat 1?

80 MPH...give or take 15...but probably more with the +15...border line 2. I still see a very favorable upper level environment starting tomorrow. It is not out of the rhelm of possibilities that Don could go off once it nears 25N...sometime tmw afternoon...where the higher TCHP's are.

Call me crazy.

I feel that people aren't taking this seriously. I hope it stays weaker and getter bigger for rain purposes.

[Air Force Met]

On the other side of that coin, Frank Billingsley at Channel 2 is saying we may have 6" of rain out of Don. I would guess, based on what I have read and heard, that we are looking at a good soaking in the metro Houston area, but I am not sure about 6" unless Don landfalls further up the coast than currently expected.

I think Frank was referring to the potential amount of rainfall where the storm actually makes landfall...that's what I gathered from it, anyway

Just saw it again(the graphic)and its' title was Houston Effects.

I saw it too...and he was saying that. On the flip side, I saw Tim Heller talking about shear and dry air.

I wonder if Tim is aware that Don's bottom has been dropping out?

[KWT]

80 MPH...give or take 15...but probably more with the +15...border line 2. I still see a very favorable upper level environment starting tomorrow. It is not out of the rhelm of possibilities that Don could go off once it nears 25N...sometime tmw afternoon...where the higher TCHP's are.

Call me crazy.

Thats worrying because thats plenty of time for it to develop an inner core, esp given it small size...and obviously if it does get some sort of inner core, then that puts it in a very strong position to take advantage of any loop current in the area...

[ROCK]

sometimes I wonder if they look at RECON data....I mean tell it like it is and stop sugar coating it.....Don problably now under the 1000MB range...with a nice inflow feeder band setting up to the WSW....fanning of the clouds tells me outflow is good if not perfect right now....

current steering....

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

[ROCK]

80 MPH...give or take 15...but probably more with the +15...border line 2. I still see a very favorable upper level environment starting tomorrow. It is not out of the rhelm of possibilities that Don could go off once it nears 25N...sometime tmw afternoon...where the higher TCHP's are.

Call me crazy.

Thats worrying because thats plenty of time for it to develop an inner core, esp given it small size...and obviously if it does get some sort of inner core, then that puts it in a very strong position to take advantage of any loop current in the area...

Charlie comes to mind...He was a small compact storm with a tiny inner core...If Don gets an inner core or eye tonight its not going to be pretty where ever he goes...

[ROCK]

toasty ..

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[KWT]

sometimes I wonder if they look at RECON data....I mean tell it like it is and stop sugar coating it.....Don problably now under the 1000MB range...with a nice inflow feeder band setting up to the WSW....fanning of the clouds tells me outflow is good if not perfect right now....

Yeah, its wrapping up nicely as well, I wouldn't be all that shcoked to see it down to 997mbs right now or something in that region, I share AFM idea that we could see a phase of RI some point in the next 24hrs, it does make sense.

Only caveat is obviously the dry air that is still in place to its west, one big gulp of that and we'll be looking at quite a different situation...

[indian]

sometimes I wonder if they look at RECON data....I mean tell it like it is and stop sugar coating it.....Don problably now under the 1000MB range...with a nice inflow feeder band setting up to the WSW....fanning of the clouds tells me outflow is good if not perfect right now....

current steering....

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

rock...do you think that it is going to make a turn towards the upper texas coast?

[Dean4Storms]

Is it just me or does Don appear to be moving more toward the NW?

[summersquall]

80 MPH...give or take 15...but probably more with the +15...border line 2. I still see a very favorable upper level environment starting tomorrow. It is not out of the rhelm of possibilities that Don could go off once it nears 25N...sometime tmw afternoon...where the higher TCHP's are.

Call me crazy.

Thats worrying because thats plenty of time for it to develop an inner core, esp given it small size...and obviously if it does get some sort of inner core, then that puts it in a very strong position to take advantage of any loop current in the area...

Current GOM loop currents. http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/viewer.s ... ate=latest

Hope y'all get the needed rain and minimal wind.

[LSU2001]

Looking at the Rainbow loop don is starting to get that "fist" look that normally signals better organization and intensification.
Tim
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[indian]

Is it just me or does Don appear to be moving more toward the NW?

i am new to this but it sure does look like it is moving NW

[TexasF6]

Storm tops firing very well...I wonder if the center is relocating? Thoughts? I too, believe the local Mets are not taking Don seriously.....

[Tireman4]

[
I saw it too...and he was saying that. On the flip side, I saw Tim Heller talking about shear and dry air.

I wonder if Tim is aware that Don's bottom has been dropping out? [/quote]

Great TV mets on the different side of the fence. Lovely. Meanwhile, Don is cooking up something for someone...

[KWT]

Is it just me or does Don appear to be moving more toward the NW?

Does sorta look that way doesn't it...then again could well just be the convective presentation changing and the convection better wrapping around the northern section of Don.

[Wx_Warrior]

Rock sticking his neck out like oh Don Juan is gonna be like Miss Rita...we shall see!

I can't speak for any local met but 1, and he is taking is seriously. Just not getting over zealous like some.

[indian]

Is it just me or does Don appear to be moving more toward the NW?

Does sorta look that way doesn't it...then again could well just be the convective presentation changing and the convection better wrapping around the northern section of Don.

is there any way to know for sure if it has turned towards the NW at this time?