ATL: IRENE - Models

[tolakram]

GFDL saved image, 126H after a tracking west over Cuba.

[ronjon]

Hmmm..If we average the two hurricane models, HWRF and GFDL, we have the current NHC track into S FL.

[Aric Dunn]

wow very nice clustering... again not surprised with the east shift. should see a more a northerly shift in the early track now that the center is well north of the track. could end up tracking along the north coast of hispaniola or close to it.

[Kory]

Keep expecting things to shift eastward. I think we could very well end up with a track offshore.

[northjaxpro]

wow very nice clustering... again not surprised with the east shift. should see a more a northerly shift in the early track now that the center is well north of the track. could end up tracking along the north coast of hispaniola or close to it.

Good morning Aric. Yeah, this is certainly plausible.

[TBCaneFreak]

Keep expecting things to shift eastward. I think we could very well end up with a track offshore.

Well Kory, perhaps, but now we have the camp that says building high pressure to the north. It is not unlikely for the track to remain about where it isand perhaps flatten out on the upper end like Ivan was spealing of yesterday. So the cone may not turn completely south to north, but southeas to northwest...

[jes]

Just got up --- does anyone know the latest CMC or EURO tracks?

[Kory]

Keep expecting things to shift eastward. I think we could very well end up with a track offshore.

Well Kory, perhaps, but now we have the camp that says building high pressure to the north. It is not unlikely for the track to remain about where it isand perhaps flatten out on the upper end like Ivan was spealing of yesterday. So the cone may not turn completely south to north, but southeas to northwest...

It is a pretty big gap in between the ridges that is forecasted. Plus with an upper level low ahead of the system and center reformations, it keeps getting tugged more northward. In turn, the models should keep shifting eastward.

[jpigott]

Just got up --- does anyone know the latest CMC or EURO tracks?

I think the new Euro should be running pretty soon if it hasn't already.

[rockyman]

The Euro won't come out again until mid-afternoon. The most recent one came out early this morning

[TBCaneFreak]

Keep expecting things to shift eastward. I think we could very well end up with a track offshore.

Well Kory, perhaps, but now we have the camp that says building high pressure to the north. It is not unlikely for the track to remain about where it isand perhaps flatten out on the upper end like Ivan was spealing of yesterday. So the cone may not turn completely south to north, but southeas to northwest...

It is a pretty big gap in between the ridges that is forecasted. Plus with an upper level low ahead of the system and center reformations, it keeps getting tugged more northward. In turn, the models should keep shifting eastward.

I dont believe upper lows have any influence on track, intensity yes...Im just saing that the same folks pulling the "west shift" are now championing the "right Shift"...blend the runns over time, dont swing side to side with them...notice the NHC never make brash changes due to a run or two....they also have expereince to understand the synoptics at play

[tolakram]

Saved Image, HWRF 126H

[tolakram]

Saved Image, model plots.

[TBCaneFreak]

Additionally Kory, synoptics change the position of a high and trof, not a center reformation. So if the center feforms, its still going to traverse the same pressure channel aroud a ridge. In fact a wsw motion my incur to push the newly formed center back out to its steering layer

[Kory]

TBCaneFreak...take a look at this image. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs500mbHGHTNA090.html


It shows a hugh weakness to its north. Now what makes you think its going to continue its WNW track this far? I think it could erode the ridge a bit and take a more NW or possibly NNW track. And I never vouched the westward swing with this sytem.

Edit by mf_dolphin

[Kory]

Saved Image, model plots.

Yep...just as I thought, it continues shifting east. Now some models are showing it passing to the east of the Florida peninsula.

[bella_may]

Saved Image, model plots.

Yep...just as I thought, it continues shifting east. Now some models are showing it passing to the east of the Florida peninsula.

But not all models are on board with the east shift

[TBCaneFreak]

Saved Image, model plots.

Yep...just as I thought, it continues shifting east. Now some models are showing it passing to the east of the Florida peninsula.

Thoes are still the 6z images...Thanks for the personal attack..Trolling????Im staing my opinion. and I follow the NHC, and also the equall lines of pressure not the color the weakness is allignes sw to ne within that break

[BensonTCwatcher]

Ok I have been lurking all year so far, and frankly we have so many folks here that are so good, that I don't generally have much to add. This storm setup is trouble due to the geography of the coastline and the placement and heights of the the ridge. Smaller variances in ridge height seems like it will have a larger impact on just which population is most affected. I see that same scenario like a Floyd or even a Charley in that the models won't give us the long lead time a certainty of landfall. Right now looks like we are really still talking about Fl panhandle to outer banks.

[tolakram]

Stop copying images on every reply and no one is attacking anyone.