ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[breaking wind]

metoercane, Its the old saying... a picture is worth a thousand words. Its not strengthening rapidly but it is getting better organized.

[Aric Dunn]

not a true eyewall yet..

also I think radar is down for the moment..

[JPmia]

the lack of core in this instance might not knock her down to much...

I wouldn't be shocked to see some sort of proto core trying to develop before it comes towards PR, its wrapping up very neatly looking at the current loops...

proto core

that deserves a Wikipedia entry

J - looks like your 150 miles off of FLL might be from the wrong direction.

[NDG]

Is going to go over St. Croix

[KWT]

If the system tracks over PR before the next recon flight gets there do you think they may cancel it, or will the data still be useful enough to send them in?

Also when is the next flight come to think about it?

[dmbthestone]

Was curious as to when the next set of relevant models comes out?

[JPmia]

that is facinating radar loop.. you can see the northern "eye" wall developing it appears.

[KWT]

I'm not sure whether its an illusion of the system getting closer to the radar or whether its actually wrapping around, but its looking increasingly good in terms of the inner core.

Probably a strong TS now IMO.

[AdamFirst]

Looking at radar it appears to be heading due west, maybe a hair north of west.

[painkillerr]

Lights out in St. Thomas.... heavy downpour and winds! "Showtime"!

Be careful. But I have to ask: is anyone taking video?

I am.... for sure!

[ozonepete]

not a true eyewall yet..

also I think radar is down for the moment..

WU is working fine:

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?num=6&delay=15&scale=1.00&noclutter=0&ID=JUA&type=N0R&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=0&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0

[Tonic]

Screenshot from GR Level 3 at 3:20pm, 8/21/11. Puerto Rico radar:

[ozonepete]

Looking at radar it appears to be heading due west, maybe a hair north of west.

I still see west northwest. More importantly, from the radar it looks like it will cross some of PR.

[indian]

looks to be moving a little south of west?

[supercane]

Latest microwave:

[ozonepete]

Hugo & Floyd were way N of Irene's position, so really not good comparison. Frances was to be a Carolinas system until recon went out and found a stronger HP resulting in a big track change from NE FL/Ga to SFL. I expect the 5pm track to skim the FL coast w/ a landfall somewhere in N FL. I won't buy any landfall from Vero to Savannah. It will come down to recon going out in a few days to sample the HP again, stronger than expected Vero to the south, weaker than expected it's a Carolinas storm. Don't think Irene can escape w/o hitting CONUS.

Strength will have plenty to do with it, but it's the timing and strength of the longwave trough approaching the east coast later in the week that will have the say in when it turns.

[marciacubed]

I believe it is moving basically west. Looks like Puerto Rico is in for a stormy night. Everyone stay safe.

[OuterBanker]

Well, JB says the strongest hurricane to hit the Carolinas since Isabel. A track between Hugo and Floyd. Wilmington nws mentions it, but does state that there are models taking it off shore also.

But it's my wife that relaxes me the most. She said that no way is there going to be a hurricane this week. She doesn't have the time for one and that's it.

If you knew my wife you would feel safer too

[KWT]

Looking at radar it appears to be heading due west, maybe a hair north of west.

I still see west northwest. More importantly, from the radar it looks like it will cross some of PR.

I don't see WNW per say, but I don't see due west either, maybe something invbetween looking at the radar and the loops, probably 280 ish would be my best estimate...

Hopefully we can get some recon in before PR, going to be a close call though.

[Lowpressure]

I think motion is a bit misleading due to the inner core fluctuating right now. It kinda wobbles until a true eyewall gets established. One set it looks 270 next set looks 285 smooth it out and you get around 280.