ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[SunnyThoughts]

I guess the most important thing is that the trend is definitely west with each of these new model runs. I guess its safe to say that the longer it takes for this system to really get going...the farther west its going to go? Is that a fair assumption?

[stormreader]

This run is going to hit FL.

Yes, and then most likely the E GOM. Its still very early. But I think that scenario is about as good as any right now. WNW seems really certain over the next few days (some troughiness--but models showing an expansion of high pressure to the storm's north (not overly dominant--but enough to keep it WNW toward S FL) In my opinion toward the keys-everglades area. But the high looks to reach its full extent thereabouts allowing the sysem to turn more distinctly north in the E GOM and then uptoward the panhandle. Very--very early. But that could be what models are beginning to sniff out. Just an amateur's opinion.

[Bocadude85]

That run is very similar to the track hurricane David took

[Ivanhater]

thats less that 50 miles from the coast.. if hurricane there would be hurricane condtions

That too

[SouthFLTropics]

Hurricane David - 1979, appears to be a good analog for this run of the GFS. Not in strength mind you but in track only.

SFT

[Miami Storm Tracker]

What model run is this or is it several combined?

[cycloneye]

The question is if the 00z run has data from the gulfstream jet that was in a mission.

[HurricaneWarning92]

Still too early to get excited...That is at 144 hours (6 days) out. A lot can change and there are many variables to consider (land interaction, etc.). The trend has been somewhat concerning though. I'd feel much better if this was early September and not early August. I'd think the chances of a decent trough to kick this thing away would be much better.

SFT

yes, but this is most likely not gonna be an Andrew. If anything just a strong tropical storm maybe a 75 mph hurricane. but as you said, its still 6 days out.

[SouthFLTropics]

That run is very similar to the track hurricane David took

You beat me to it...Great minds think alike!!!

SFT

[Fego]

Beginning to think some more official warnings for the islands might be prudent now. Convection blowing up pretty fast.

Here a nice image (04 GMT) that support your comment.


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[DAY_1_RESPONDER]

I'm not going to get carried away with one run of the NAM...I mean it is the NAM after all. If I see the GFS, GFDL, HWRF, and everyone's favorite "THE MIGHTY EURO" get onboard then I'll give this run some additional credence.

Just remember folks, it's only the first quarter, it's first and 10, and there's alot of ballgame left. Many things can and will change...but as we always say, "the trend is your friend"...or sometimes your enemy.

SFT

I remember back in Sept. 2008, Ike was an East Coast storm, then started moving west bit by bit all the way to Corpus Chrisiti, then east back to Galveston then landfall in Galveston. So these early models don't get me stirred up either way.

[boca]

Tomorrow's run it wont be an issue for Florida but maybe points west of Florida because 2 days ago the GFS had it east of the Bahamas.3 days from now it will be Texas get my drift.

[caribepr]

As much as I feel bad for the people of Hispaniola...If future Emily is bound for South Florida it would be best to pass over the big island and the mountains before coming here. At least the circulation would hopefully be disrupted and we wouldn't be looking at a major storm (hopefully). With the models continuing to trend further west it is my fear that this thing will turn to the north and begin the long, sweeping recurve somewhere around Jamaica and come across Central Cuba. I don't believe Central Cuba will do as much to disrupt this as Hispaniola would and we could be looking at a major storm rolling up the spine of the state.

I'm not saying this will happen, nor am I wishing this on the people of Haiti or the DR. They certainly don't even need a rain event from this, but unfortunately for them it looks like they will get some sort of impact.

SFT

What about Puerto Rico?

We'd be honored to be thrown under the poster's bus along with Haiti Sheesh.

[SouthFLTropics]

Still too early to get excited...That is at 144 hours (6 days) out. A lot can change and there are many variables to consider (land interaction, etc.). The trend has been somewhat concerning though. I'd feel much better if this was early September and not early August. I'd think the chances of a decent trough to kick this thing away would be much better.

SFT

yes, but this is most likely not gonna be an Andrew. If anything just a strong tropical storm maybe a 75 mph hurricane. but as you said, its still 6 days out.

Whoa...Easy with the Andrew reference. Nobody is even hinting at that at this time. Andrew was a whole different animal all together. In fact, I think your post just then is the first reference I've seen to Andrew in regards to 91L.

SFT

[drezee]

That run is very similar to the track hurricane David took

You beat me to it...Great minds think alike!!!

SFT

David changed the pattern and then came Frederic up Mobile Bay....

[NDG]

Almost perfect UL conditions that the GFS forecasts for future to be Emily to have as it tracks very close to FL east coast on this run.

[cycloneye]

Beginning to think some more official warnings for the islands might be prudent now. Convection blowing up pretty fast.

Here a nice image (04 GMT) that support your comment.


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

There are purple towers there indicating very high cloud tops cooling,and is not D-MAX yet.

[Bocadude85]

That run is very similar to the track hurricane David took

You beat me to it...Great minds think alike!!!

SFT

Yea that run is very similar.. rides the coast from S. Fla all the way up to N. Fla

[SeminoleWind]

I would be willing to bet if the west trend keeps up it could be a east coast Florida landfall out and up the west coast of Florida, JMO only going by the way some of the models have been shifting, any thoughts on that scenario?

[TwisterFanatic]

Check out that big nor-easter type low off the NE.