ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Model tracks.



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[Countrygirl911]

So LA and MS are out of the woods no chance of it making land fall here?

[KatDaddy]

Models have shifted a bit S with the latest runs. Consistency into Corpus Christi up to Rockport.

[Swimdude]

So LA and MS are out of the woods no chance of it making land fall here?

The probability is minimal, but with weather, never say never. Keep an eye on it--doing so couldn't ever hurt you. Unawareness could.

[KatDaddy]

Very well put Swimdude!

[Meteorcane]

The gulf looks pretty juicy at least in the upper air water vapor imagery and with that ULL rolling into Mexico to help ventilate the outflow I'm surprised they haven't forecast a hurricane in 48 hours? If I were living in Texas I'm not sure I'd be happy with this setup even if it did mean rain.

I have a feeling that the hurricane intensity didn't go into the forecast because the NHC sees Don making landfall between 48 and 72 hours out--that is, between forecast points. I wouldn't be surprised to see a hurricane-strength storm forecasted for 48 hours out come 11 p.m. or 5 a.m. EST.

This is a good point I believe it is somewhat likely that they will at least put out hurricane watches within the next 24 hours, and I imagine the NHC would put odds around 40-50% of it reaching hurricane strength (yes the wind probs only say 20-25%, but once again peak intensity could very well be in between forecast points)

[djmikey]

Ok, question...why is there such a difference/split in models for the 8pm on these two sites? One has alot of models and the other has just a couple...please explain why some show and some dont. Which are the most reliable for this particular system? Thanks

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realti ... _early.png

and

http://www.stormpulse.com/

[crimi481]

It may be a meanderer in Gulf, as I cannot figure out the "player" that will be moving it anywhere fast.?

[ConvergenceZone]

well, if the NHC doesn't go Cane with their prediction later tonight, then they may if we wake up to a storm 50 mph+ by morning.


I'm saying 70 to 80 mph, but I could be way off. Hurricane strength is extremely difficult to predict and many times they do what they aren't forecasted to do anyway.

[TheDreamTraveler]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

Should there be such a lack of clouds near the center of the storm? It almost looks like an eye is trying to form, but it seems a bit early for that.

[nicole]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

Should there be such a lack of clouds near the center of the storm? It almost looks like an eye is trying to form, but it seems a bit early for that.

Woah! It was looking right at me in that last frame!!!

Coming together really nice!

Im predicting a low Cat 2!

[Air Force Met]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

Should there be such a lack of clouds near the center of the storm? It almost looks like an eye is trying to form, but it seems a bit early for that.

No...it's not an eye. It's a lack of convection. There is likely very little in the way of shower activity near the center and I would imagine the pressure is way up...probably near 1006-1008 mb. The inflow into the storm is getting cut off by the Yucatan and small systems have a tendency to undergo big changes in intensity...both up and down. It will have to get out into the central Gulf before it makes any move towards real strengthening.

Edit: I would also like to note there is some upper level convergence on the north side of the system...which is a real no-no in the tropics. That should change tomorrow with some speed and directional divergence. But for now...there is a lot of downward vertical motion due to this convergence coming from the ridge to the north...and that is likely also killing the convection. It's tropical forecasting 101. Converging air aloft in the tropics...sinking air at the sfc=no convection.

[SunnyThoughts]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

Should there be such a lack of clouds near the center of the storm? It almost looks like an eye is trying to form, but it seems a bit early for that.

I really don't know what to make of that.

[Sean in New Orleans]

It's a disorganized system is what it is....

[Snow Deprived365]

What is a good website to go to that keeps an updated radar? The one I look at is always an hour behind.

[ROCK]

no eye...need that convection to wrap all the way around.....from the N and E....

[Yankeegirl]

I would just like some rain out of this.... thats all... lol..

[ROCK]

It's a disorganized system is what it is....

its a TS Sean so how organized does it need to be? it has 72hrs left so lets see what it can do......

[ROCK]

What is a good website to go to that keeps an updated radar? The one I look at is always an hour behind.

not going to find a radar to see this as its pulling away from land....that ship has sailed...now its just surface obs, RECON and presentation....

[jasons2k]

TVCN has shifted just slightly south from last night - from the Port Lavaca/Point Comfort area (Matagorda Bay) down to the San Antonio Bay, near Seadrift/Austwell.