ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[SouthFLTropics]

As much as I feel bad for the people of Hispaniola...If future Emily is bound for South Florida it would be best to pass over the big island and the mountains before coming here. At least the circulation would hopefully be disrupted and we wouldn't be looking at a major storm (hopefully). With the models continuing to trend further west it is my fear that this thing will turn to the north and begin the long, sweeping recurve somewhere around Jamaica and come across Central Cuba. I don't believe Central Cuba will do as much to disrupt this as Hispaniola would and we could be looking at a major storm rolling up the spine of the state.

I'm not saying this will happen, nor am I wishing this on the people of Haiti or the DR. They certainly don't even need a rain event from this, but unfortunately for them it looks like they will get some sort of impact.

SFT

What about Puerto Rico?

We'd be honored to be thrown under the poster's bus along with Haiti Sheesh.

Caribe,

Please understand that no disrespect was meant to the people of Haiti, Dominican Republic, or Puerto Rico. If my post offended anyone I apologize.

SFT

[WxEnthus]

Anyone else watching the feature at 14.8N / 54.8W?

That's what we're all watching.

Even after watching the tropics for 10 years... I still have to make sure I'm on the same page as everyone else sometimes!

I often don't know what part to look at when these storms are in their developmental stages, but I've learned a lot from reading what you guys say and then looking at the loops and having an "aha!" moment. In the area pointed out I see a healthy dose of convection firing and what seems to be a low(er) level convergence... I think... with better overall rotation beginning to return for the first time tonight. But for those of us who haven't been watching for 10 years, can someone with more experienced eyes explain what they see? Is it an MLC working it's way down or connecting with what was possibly a weak LLC in the western blob?

[stormreader]

Beginning to think some more official warnings for the islands might be prudent now. Convection blowing up pretty fast.

Here a nice image (04 GMT) that support your comment.


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

There are purple towers there indicating very high cloud tops cooling,and is not D-MAX yet.

Yeah I think its happening now. The western area already moved into the islands earlier this evening (as stated by Chris in St. Lucia). This eastern section has finally gotten its act together.

[Kohlecane]

[/quote]
Yea that run is very similar.. rides the coast from S. Fla all the way up to N. Fla[/quote]

Can i get the link for those runs. Thanks

[HurricaneWarning92]

Still too early to get excited...That is at 144 hours (6 days) out. A lot can change and there are many variables to consider (land interaction, etc.). The trend has been somewhat concerning though. I'd feel much better if this was early September and not early August. I'd think the chances of a decent trough to kick this thing away would be much better.

SFT

yes, but this is most likely not gonna be an Andrew. If anything just a strong tropical storm maybe a 75 mph hurricane. but as you said, its still 6 days out.

Whoa...Easy with the Andrew reference. Nobody is even hinting at that at this time. Andrew was a whole different animal all together. In fact, I think your post just then is the first reference I've seen to Andrew in regards to 91L.

SFT

dude, relax. i meant in terms of intensity, it is not likely this will be an Andrew. i Should have referred it to jeanne or Frances. maybe even wilma. My mistake. BUT IM NOT SAYING THIS IS GOING TO HAPPEN, GUYS.

[WeatherEmperor]

Tomorrow's run it wont be an issue for Florida but maybe points west of Florida because 2 days ago the GFS had it east of the Bahamas.3 days from now it will be Texas get my drift.

That is a really good point. Will the west shifts continue with the GFS? If so, how far west will it shift? Will the GFS remain the same the rest of the way through? All of these are important questions that we won't know the answer to for a while.

[Weatherfreak000]

Check out that big nor-easter type low off the NE.

Yep, 91L keeps inching closer and closer "apparently" yet still forecast to go out to sea.

[SouthDadeFish]

Back up to 100% at next TWO?

[Bocadude85]

Yea that run is very similar.. rides the coast from S. Fla all the way up to N. Fla[/quote]

Can i get the link for those runs. Thanks[/quote]

Just go back to page 44 and you will see the images

[caribepr]

Caribe,

Please understand that no disrespect was meant to the people of Haiti, Dominican Republic, or Puerto Rico. If my post offended anyone I apologize.

SFT

See PM please

[cheezyWXguy]

Yeah I think its happening now. The western area already moved into the islands earlier this evening (as stated by Chris in St. Lucia). This eastern section has finally gotten its act together.

No, the convection with the western part died out, as the associated llc remained stationary and was picked up by the eastern mlc.

[Ivanhater]

Check out that big nor-easter type low off the NE.

Yep, 91L keeps inching closer and closer "apparently" yet still forecast to go out to sea.

Current GFS has continued the shift west and is now 50 miles off the coast. Model error at this range is quite large. There is no forecast out to sea with that set up.

[Swimdude]

If this isn't a forming storm, I don't know what is.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

[stormreader]

Tomorrow's run it wont be an issue for Florida but maybe points west of Florida because 2 days ago the GFS had it east of the Bahamas.3 days from now it will be Texas get my drift.

That is a really good point. Will the west shifts continue with the GFS? If so, how far west will it shift? Will the GFS remain the same the rest of the way through? All of these are important questions that we won't know the answer to for a while.

I think we can expect somewhat further. Models have only just recently reacted to an expansion of high pressure west in the Atlantic (I belive NOGAPS was first to pick up on it). But no matter. I wouldn't look for anything radically further west. Looks as though the High should extend westward right up to about the Fl penninsula. So it will be a close call whether any system turns north just east of Fl or up the penninsula itself, or just west. I think just west is as good a call as any. I don't think the trough will be deep enough to enforce a radical turn north there. A more gradual turn near S Fl and then more distinct north in the E GOM perhaps toward the panhandle. Lets see how that turns out. Just an amateur's opinion.

[Bocadude85]

Check out that big nor-easter type low off the NE.

Yep, 91L keeps inching closer and closer "apparently" yet still forecast to go out to sea.

Current GFS has continued the shift west and is now 50 miles off the coast. Model error at this range is quite large. There is no forecast out to sea with that set up.

Yea I am not even sure its 50 miles off the coast could be more like 20-30 miles. The low looks like it passes west of Grand Bahama which is about 50 miles off the Palm Beach coast. Of course I am just spliting hairs at this point.

[HurricaneQueen]

Wow, I looked away long enough to watch a TV show and came back to a whole different scenario. This is one of the most amazing things I have seen happen in the tropics in all my years of watching. Earlier, I really thought they might both go poof, then figured one would become the dominant player and the other would go poof and now they have merged into what looks as if it could become quite storm down the road. Guess this is why we all keep coming back.....

To all my friends in the Islands: Be safe!
Lynn

[TwisterFanatic]

Check out that big nor-easter type low off the NE.

Yep, 91L keeps inching closer and closer "apparently" yet still forecast to go out to sea.

Lol, you can only keep that going for so long, can't keep ignoring the trends.

[SouthDadeFish]

Appears that it's starting to slow down.

[PTrackerLA]

May have to stay up for the Euro tonight, way too close to comfort for Florida but it is still early in the game.

[HurricaneWarning92]

Weatherfreak, you still think this is gonna be picked up east of Florida, and thus not be concerned? im not trying to start anything, just asking. its all cool.