ATL: IRENE - Models

[lonelymike]

Poeple in Florida and east gulf dont let ur guard down. wxman57 said yesterday that it would track just west off florida and I have to agree with him. most of the time to man is right on the money, its what he does for a living. Just because the models shifted to the east for 1 or 2 runs doesnt mean anything this far out. Everyone should be prepared!!!

Exactly what I said last night. And if this gets in the e gom. No telling where it could go from there

I think the center re-location last nite changed a lot of the thinking about this system so EGOM is maybe a 20-30% hit.

[Nimbus]

There will be a weakness between the two ridges and that makes it difficult to forecast. Lets say Irene shifts her track NW some from the north coast of Hispaniola. Now we would have a storm headed into a ridge over the steaming waters of the Bahamas. Not to mention the slowdown that usually occurs during the transition period of weak steering currents as the next ridge builds in. That is the worst case scenario and the potential track error is large. They will probably be talking about landfall from the Keys to north Carolina soon.

[northtxboy]

I think the center re-location last nite changed a lot of the thinking about this system so EGOM is maybe a 20-30% hit.[/quote]

20-30%??? I think thats alittle low my friend. We cant base this off 1 or 2 runs thats all I am saying..

[lonelymike]

I think the center re-location last nite changed a lot of the thinking about this system so EGOM is maybe a 20-30% hit.

20-30%??? I think thats alittle low my friend. We cant base this off 1 or 2 runs thats all I am saying..[/quote]


How do you figure it's going to get into the EGOM?

[northjaxpro]

There will be a weakness between the two ridges and that makes it difficult to forecast. Lets say Irene shifts her track NW some from the north coast of Hispaniola. Now we would have a storm headed into a ridge over the steaming waters of the Bahamas. Not to mention the slowdown that usually occurs during the transition period of weak steering currents as the ridge builds in. That is the worst case scenario and the potential track error is large. They will probably be talking about landfall from the Keys to north Carolina soon.

That's already happening for the most part.

[lonelymike]

I think the center re-location last nite changed a lot of the thinking about this system so EGOM is maybe a 20-30% hit.

20-30%??? I think thats alittle low my friend. We cant base this off 1 or 2 runs thats all I am saying..[/quote]


How do you figure it's going to get into the EGOM?

[artist]

I think the center re-location last nite changed a lot of the thinking about this system so EGOM is maybe a 20-30% hit.

20-30%??? I think thats alittle low my friend. We cant base this off 1 or 2 runs thats all I am saying..[/quote]
it is due to the relocation of the center that causes a more eastern shift. It heads further north, then it will head a little further east, as well as the stronger the storm gets, the more likely it heads north into the weakness sooner.
Correct me if I am wrong experts, please?

[northtxboy]

I think the center re-location last nite changed a lot of the thinking about this system so EGOM is maybe a 20-30% hit.

20-30%??? I think thats alittle low my friend. We cant base this off 1 or 2 runs thats all I am saying..

How do you figure it's going to get into the EGOM?[/quote]

I am not saying it will for sure but I think 20-30% is really low man.. more like 60-40 is what I am thinking. wxman57 has been right with every storm this year even when I thought he was wrong. So untill he say differnt I think this east shift is for the birds. And any talk of a recurve out to sea is insane!! 1 or two runs is nothing.. now I could be wrong and trust me I am wrong alot but this time I have to side with wxman.

[Dean4Storms]

I think the center re-location last nite changed a lot of the thinking about this system so EGOM is maybe a 20-30% hit.

20-30%??? I think thats alittle low my friend. We cant base this off 1 or 2 runs thats all I am saying..

How do you figure it's going to get into the EGOM?[/quote]

Several possibilities, a weakened Irene once it traverses Hispaniola could cause it to make less a sharp turn into the weakness. Another possibility is that the models are under estimating the strength of the Atlantic Ridge, we've seen that numerous times in these situations.

I'd agree with a 40% chance into the eastern Gulf right now.

[Nimbus]

Yesterday the storm was down around 14N 57W so the EGOM was a distinct possibility. Furthest west I thought it would go was Ft Myers Florida but if something changes like a stronger southeastern ridge evolution I would consider GOM track solutions.

[northtxboy]

Yesterday the storm was down around 14N 57W so the EGOM was a distinct possibility. Furthest west I thought it would go was Ft Myers Florida but if something changes like a stronger southeastern ridge evolution I would consider GOM track solutions.

But you cant say that the east GOM is out of the question. Thats the point I was trying to make.

[WeatherEmperor]

Okay so the 12Z GFS will start rolling in the next 5-10 minutes. My question is, will it initialize with the newly re-located center or will we have to wait for the 18Z run for the new center to be initialized?

[Dean4Storms]

For sure, anyone from the eastern Gulf through FL and up to NC are still in the game.

[northtxboy]

For sure, anyone from the eastern Gulf through FL and up to NC are still in the game.

agreed!!!!

[jinftl]

Yep, the NHC forecast cone clearly indicates that...there could be 2 florida landfalls...the initial one in the keys/se coast, then the system moves nw across the peninsula and enters into the Gulf from Fort Myers or Tampa and then continues nw to the panhandle/big bend.

For sure, anyone from the eastern Gulf through FL and up to NC are still in the game.

[Tampa_God]

It all matters with the ridge. A strengthening ridge could possibly move this into the GoM and make this a Irene that ride up W. Florida. Not saying this will happen and not saying it won't, the ridge is just being very hard to tell what will happen with Irene.

[Dean4Storms]

Crazy thing is that Irene has been moving exactly as the 06z GFDL indicated with a hop toward the north and the GFDL ends this in the SE GOM.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation


Does anyone see the more west movement this run of the GFDL shows once Irene emerges from Hispaniola? Indicative of a less organized system not feeling the weakness as much, VERY plausible!!!

[HeeBGBz]

I'm not relaxing one bit with the models edge to the east. I still think she's going in the GOM but that's my gut and my gut has no meteorologic expertise or credentials.

[Javlin]

Crazy thing is that Irene has been moving exactly as the 06z GFDL indicated with a hop toward the north and the GFDL ends this in the SE GOM.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

That's funny I was thinking the 0Z model kinda had it but the 06Z definitly p/u on it.Again I beating an old drum here but the models always want to tilt to the right?? on movement right off the back.The 0Z keeps her a little further S of the islands on a W movement for the most part which looks to occurring ATTM.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
and movement
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

[jinftl]

It's late August and you are in Biloxi...no more explanation than that needed...there are folks to the east of you that have already written this off as having any impact in places like Tampa ('it is going to the east')...they could do with your common sense approach.

I would say you should be vigilant but not alarmed at this point. As of now, it does appear this will become a more northward moving storm as we get into the end of the week so even if it does track into the se gom, into should be moving more n or nnw than nw in time and stay mainly off to your east.

But you know the drill...that could all change 10 times between now and then. There is no way to guarantee anything at this point...and that will be the case for many days to come. Lots of watching and waiting....gee, wasn't it a few days ago that some folks were bored with this season?

I'm not relaxing one bit with the models edge to the east. I still think she's going in the GOM but that's my gut and my gut has no meteorologic expertise or credentials.