ATL: EMILY - Remnants

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Bocadude85
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Re:

#2301 Postby Bocadude85 » Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:58 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:Back up to 100% at next TWO?


I bet they keep it at 90% until tomorrow morning
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2302 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:59 pm

Well I can understand why they might hold on to that thought, just now even TWC was making statements about a turn north before Fla, but to keep an eye on it. What a waste of a segment of a tropical update.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2303 Postby SunnyThoughts » Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:59 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:May have to stay up for the Euro tonight, way too close to comfort for Florida but it is still early in the game.


Yeah, I think I might just stay up also. Euro comes out what, in about 1 1/2 hours or so? Something like that?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2304 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:02 am

00z Canadian...through the straits into the Gulf!!!!

Image
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Re:

#2305 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:03 am

HurricaneWarning92 wrote:Weatherfreak, you still think this is gonna be picked up east of Florida, and thus not be concerned? im not trying to start anything, just asking. its all cool. 8-)


Of course I do. The models still forecast the trof...even the recent GFS. I am not ignoring the "trend". The trend has been westward because the storm has taken so long to form. THAT is the element that is changing- not the synoptic pattern.


That however will change soon, and I fully expect future Emily to still be picked up and out to sea probably alot sooner than this recent GFS shows.


Some members are gonna see whatever they want to see, that's fine. This attitude won't change- neither will the model run drama.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2306 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:04 am

Enough model wars for me tonight...Either way it looks to be a long week ahead. By the time it is all said and done we may be talking about a Mexico or Texas landfall. At this point in time anybody is fair game.

SFT
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#2307 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:04 am

With that, Florida is now really in the cross-hairs.
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Re: Re:

#2308 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:08 am

Weatherfreak000 wrote:
HurricaneWarning92 wrote:Weatherfreak, you still think this is gonna be picked up east of Florida, and thus not be concerned? im not trying to start anything, just asking. its all cool. 8-)


Of course I do. The models still forecast the trof...even the recent GFS. I am not ignoring the "trend". The trend has been westward because the storm has taken so long to form. THAT is the element that is changing- not the synoptic pattern.


That however will change soon, and I fully expect future Emily to still be picked up and out to sea probably alot sooner than this recent GFS shows.


Some members are gonna see whatever they want to see, that's fine. This attitude won't change- neither will the model run drama.


yes, i see what you are saying. Im sure we all here respect your opinion. Lets just see mother nature unfold. :D
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Re: Re:

#2309 Postby TwisterFanatic » Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:10 am

Weatherfreak000 wrote:
HurricaneWarning92 wrote:Weatherfreak, you still think this is gonna be picked up east of Florida, and thus not be concerned? im not trying to start anything, just asking. its all cool. 8-)


Of course I do. The models still forecast the trof...even the recent GFS. I am not ignoring the "trend". The trend has been westward because the storm has taken so long to form. THAT is the element that is changing- not the synoptic pattern.


That however will change soon, and I fully expect future Emily to still be picked up and out to sea probably alot sooner than this recent GFS shows.


Some members are gonna see whatever they want to see, that's fine. This attitude won't change- neither will the model run drama.


The weakness is not nearly as pronounced as it was a couple days ago. Plus, it's not just the GFS, it the majority of the models now.
Last edited by TwisterFanatic on Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2310 Postby blp » Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:11 am

Wow!! talk about a westward shift in the models. Interested to see the Euro.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2311 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:11 am

00z Canadian..into the Gulf

Image
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#2312 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:12 am

nice storm2k has 91L back on the graphic :)
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#2313 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:14 am

I don't think they will bring it back to 100% until the morning recon gets into 91L.

Either way, it's ramping up nicely tonight. Tomorrow could be a different story though.
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#2314 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:14 am

Michael,

It looks like the CMC shows it as a 1001MB low pressure system in the GOM. Would that be TD/TS strength?
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#2315 Postby Rgv20 » Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:15 am

Interesting to see that nearly all of the Top Analog tracks for 91l takes it all the way thru the Caribbean.

Would post a picture but apparently they don't want the images to be redistributed. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/
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Re:

#2316 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:15 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:Michael,

It looks like the CMC shows it as a 1001MB low pressure system in the GOM. Would that be TD/TS strength?


Looks like a strengthening TS.
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#2317 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:18 am

:uarrow: I agree. Thunderstorms have begun to concentrate in one area. this, i believe, is a good sign this storm is "in the making".
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Re: Re:

#2318 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:18 am

Ivanhater wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:Michael,

It looks like the CMC shows it as a 1001MB low pressure system in the GOM. Would that be TD/TS strength?


Looks like a strengthening TS.


its a TS and there is your 2nd hint of a GOM run....NOGAPS saw it earlier....NAM sees it also in some respects as the ridge slides east and retreats in the GOM.....
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#2319 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:19 am

Highly unlikely looking to me. If I had to take a guess, I see future Emily getting pretty strong after it consolidates. I would guess this should be the first hurricane of the season in the next 36 hours.


And as we are all aware, a strong hurricane seeks to move poleward. 8-)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2320 Postby Jagno » Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:22 am

I'm waiting on the Euro as well. For some reason I knew this gal would not follow the models right away. So very few actually do this early on. LOL
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