ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[KatDaddy]

Yep Tireman. Just letting the new weather friends know how the tropics can change as we know. Ok time for bed after a refresh of the GHCC infrared SAT imagine but should wait for the latest update.

[thetruesms]

WV also seems to indicate a tendril of drier air sneaking in from the north as well?

http://i.imgur.com/Oaaqa.gif - linked for size

I think that is a symptom of the convergence aloft.

Yes, I believe you're right. Becoming more apparent with new frames

[sphelps8681]

Looks like the GFDL has not waiverd much in the last day or so.

[KatDaddy]

Current Tweet from Mark at HurricaneTrack.com: It appears via satellite shots that Don has a tough row to hoe over the coming hours. Shear and dry air winning right now.

Mark is a great friend and storm chaser to S2K.

[ROCK]

TVCN has shifted just slightly south from last night - from the Port Lavaca/Point Comfort area (Matagorda Bay) down to the San Antonio Bay, near Seadrift/Austwell.

if the GFDL shifts tonight (which I think it will) I might have to go back to my orginal thought of Freeport to CC...shame on me for looking at the GFS ensembles from earlier today.....the EURO is king....

[Air Force Met]

I believe someone mentioned this earlier...but this is really reminding me of claudette in 2003. Rapid strengthening to just below 1000MB....then a big fill...

I hate to say it...but I will be real interested in what the plane finds...or doesn't...

[cyclogenesis]

-- 830 PM CDT, Wednesday, July 27 Update --


For all you Texans wanting more information on Tropical Storm "Don" tonight, I'll share with you.


I. Wednesday evening, July 27 Forecast TRACKS.

Forecast tracks are consistent with earlier-day model suite guidance in steering this Tropical Storm "Don" in to the lower, Southward 1/2 of the Southeast Texas coastline, very near Corpus Christi, Texas, & BETWEEN Brownsville, Texas & Matagorda Bay, Texas, on Friday night, July 29.


I do prefer this area of the lower 1/2 of South Texas for landfall.


II. Wednesday evening, July 27 Forecast STRENGTH

ICON/IVCN's intensity forecast shows a mid-grade tropical storm of near 50 mph forecast

SHFR -- 56 mph before landfall
SHIPs-- 66 mph before landfall
LGEM-- 70 mph before landfall
HWRF-- ~~ 47 mph before landfall


The other model pack, were all beneath these 5 I mention above.
I think that a forecast intensity of between 60 mph to 65 mph seems reasonable for this situation.


III. Forecast Shear.

The shear index forecast calls for some shear to increase up to 15 kts, by early Friday morning, 7 AM, 7/27.


The chances for rapid intensification are set at only 16% on this 00Z, 7/28, suite cycle output.


IV. Satellite Estimates.


There are various different satellite intensity estimates being provided on "Don" tonight.


Advanced Dvorak classification at 7:15 PM, this Wednesday evening, 7/27 showed a 3.0 -- correlating to 52 mph and 999 mb pressure


Dvorak technique was classified at a T-number of 2.0, correlating to 35 mph.


Other satellite remote sensing was at 2.6 CI number, (between the 2 values given above), at 745 PM CDT.


1 microwave sounding unit classified Tropical Storm "Don" with a 35 kt MSW speeds.


More information will be added to this message a bit later on tonight.


This information also appears on the less-traffic Tropical Analysis thread.






-- cyclogenesis

[KatDaddy]

I agree AFM. This afternoon I was thinking Claudette with the small size. Its will be an interesting day tomorrow to see how organized Don will become.

[cyclogenesis]

July 27, 2011
this Wednesday night
925 PM CDT


I. Satellite Presentation Commentary at 915 PM, 7/27/2011.


Regarding the satellite presentation appearance of Tropical Storm "Don" on Infrared images:


IR satellite imagery shows a ragged, struggling appearance of "Don" EARLY tonight, with a lopsided ball of showery convection in its Southwest quadrant, Southwest of the center.


Further, IR satellite imagery suggests the presence of Southeasterly wind shear ensuing in its Northwest quadrant, (by inspection of the wispy high cirrus filaments racing to the Northwest), in to the path for which it is heading towards.


Overall, I must say that early this Wednesday night, July 27, the satellite images of "Don" are pointing to a struggling appearance, up to and including the 845 PM CDT satellite image.


Remote sensing shows not much upper divergence atop "Don". Even though satellite shows shear tendency decreasing, it's still currently quite evident in the cloud filaments that it's still there in its Northwest quadrant, with some 30 to 55 kt wind barbs, just downstream ahead of it, early this evening, at the 100 mb to 250 mb level. -- 9:25 PM, CDT, Wednesday night, July 27.





-- cyclogenesis

[PTrackerLA]

Don looks really rough right now. The core has just about collapsed completely and it looks like it's getting sheared badly. If it doesn't reverse this process in the next few hours I wonder what's actually going to be left of it come morning.

[Raininfyr]

Interesting, what will we wake up to tomorrow? To be or not to be, that is the question. Thanks AFM, your comments seem to be right on target.

[NDG]

Looks like the GFDL has not waiverd much in the last day or so.

The GFDL has been having problems, IMO, and it looks like again this year it is north bias when a storm enters the SE GOM.

[plasticup]

It's not really about the flat land. The TCHP of dirt isn't as high as that of the western Caribbean. /sarcasm

It's not the circulation that the Yucatan is disrupting - it's the MOISTURE inflow.

I was only sort of kidding. It's not like the Yucatan is the arid Death Valley. It is hotter than the ocean, and although it doesn't have as much water the dense forest does give its moisture a greater surface area. Convection can (and often is) sustained briefly over the Yucatan.

Has there ever been a study evaluating the TCHP of different types of land? Because I bet the Yucatan would be up there with the Mouths of the Ganges.

[ConvergenceZone]

Don looks really rough right now. The core has just about collapsed completely and it looks like it's getting sheared badly. If it doesn't reverse this process in the next few hours I wonder what's actually going to be left of it come morning.

You know what would be funny is if the system just falls apart before it can get going(we've seen it before) and then all of the models that we've been bad mouthing have the last laugh.... It's not out of the question.

[cycloneye]

If this trend continues,the attention may shift to the SW CV islands pouch.

[plasticup]

If this trend continues,the attention may shift to the SW CV islands pouch.

That fella is really going to be something. If this little whiff of a system can get 88 pages I know that pouch is going to be popular!

[HouTXmetro]

TVCN has shifted just slightly south from last night - from the Port Lavaca/Point Comfort area (Matagorda Bay) down to the San Antonio Bay, near Seadrift/Austwell.

if the GFDL shifts tonight (which I think it will) I might have to go back to my orginal thought of Freeport to CC...shame on me for looking at the GFS ensembles from earlier today.....the EURO is king....

I was EURO hugger but got burned a few times in the last couple of years.....But I think the consensus is in.... Time to throw in the towel on the GFS solution Rock.

[Stormcenter]

I'm still sticking with a sheared storm making landfall somewhere in SE TX. Anyway it doesn't look healthy tonight. Hopefully the storm won't strengthen significantly and all we get in a bunch of rain and some wind somewhere in TX and nothing more. JMHO

[TwisterFanatic]

Goodness, what happened?

[Stormcenter]

Not really because they (models) jumped on the bandwagon too.

Don looks really rough right now. The core has just about collapsed completely and it looks like it's getting sheared badly. If it doesn't reverse this process in the next few hours I wonder what's actually going to be left of it come morning.

You know what would be funny is if the system just falls apart before it can get going(we've seen it before) and then all of the models that we've been bad mouthing have the last laugh.... It's not out of the question.