ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Evil Jeremy]

Highly unlikely looking to me. If I had to take a guess, I see future Emily getting pretty strong after it consolidates. I would guess this should be the first hurricane of the season in the next 36 hours.


And as we are all aware, a strong hurricane seeks to move poleward.

Question is, when does it consolidate? If it takes long enough that future-Emily gets anywhere near Hispaniola, it's mountains will keep it weak.

[WeatherEmperor]

Highly unlikely looking to me. If I had to take a guess, I see future Emily getting pretty strong after it consolidates. I would guess this should be the first hurricane of the season in the next 36 hours.


And as we are all aware, a strong hurricane seeks to move poleward.

Let's see what the other models (Euro, GFDL, etc) show later tonight. If the other models show a westward shift, they have to given respect. To be honest, I am not 100% sold on the westward shifts yet. If the models continue to shift west for another 2-3 runs in a row, then I will believe it completely.

[ROCK]

after a trip into the mountains of Hispa and over Cuba there wont be much left thus a weaker storm with a building ridge overhead......

[Evil Jeremy]

In the NOGAPS' defense, it was the first model to even move close Florida. Could it possibly be onto something? Depending on how you look at it, it's been ahead of the other models so far.

[Hylian Auree]

It was doing this yesterday morning around 5 am too : (
Then it collapsed into the mess it was yesterday... let's see if environmental conditions will be more supportive to keep it going though

[ROCK]

OK I will say it... ...IMO, FL and the GOM are coming into play ever so slowly...EURO is going to really help later...

[South Texas Storms]

All I know for sure about this sytem is that it will make this board crazy and busy for the next week.

[Weatherfreak000]

The name of the game right now is watching how quickly the storm consolidates. The models were already useful- they showed the synoptic pattern...which is a ridge and a trof sliding under to lift 91L.


If the models have it their way- still recurving IMO. Look at why CMC is sending this into the Straits...don't focus on well since it shows it clearly there is no trof. That's not what is going to happen.

[ROCK]

In the NOGAPS' defense, it was the first model to even move close Florida. Could it possibly be onto something? Depending on how you look at it, it's been ahead of the other models so far.

its doing a better job than I thought it would.....it showed a FL then up the West coast of FL run from the start.....

right now at 120hr is knocking on the door of SFL....

[WeatherEmperor]

It was doing this yesterday morning around 5 am too : (
Then it collapsed into the mess it was yesterday... let's see if environmental conditions will be more supportive to keep it going though

That is a great point. The question is, is the current organization going to continue or will it halt tomorrow morning/afternoon? Right now it looks pretty good on satellite.

[Weatherfreak000]

OK I will say it... ...IMO, FL and the GOM are coming into play ever so slowly...EURO is going to really help later...

Wxman earlier said he sees this becoming a hurricane and threatening PR. Still alot of uncertainty there for certain. As always ROCK you know your stuff...you can see what it actually would take to send this baby our way

[Evil Jeremy]

The name of the game right now is watching how quickly the storm consolidates. The models were already useful- they showed the synoptic pattern...which is a ridge and a trof sliding under to lift 91L.


If the models have it their way- still recurving IMO. Look at why CMC is sending this into the Straits...don't focus on well since it shows it clearly there is no trof. That's not what is going to happen.

1: The models are still useful. They show the changing synoptic pattern. Because nothing is ever static.
2: If the models have it their way, why would the result for a couple days ago be different from the result of today? If the models have it their way, the result will be whatever they show at the present time, no?
3: If the trend continues, you can't keep ignoring it because of past models.

[nicole]

So this has gone from a possible recurve, to a more possible GOM path??




Please God, let this finally be the drought buster that Texas needs Oh So Bad!!!

I've personally watched 2 ponds close to my house COMPLETELY disappear in less than a month!!!

A GOOD TS or hurricane is likey the ONLY thing that can put a dent into this awful drought!!

[ROCK]

The name of the game right now is watching how quickly the storm consolidates. The models were already useful- they showed the synoptic pattern...which is a ridge and a trof sliding under to lift 91L.


If the models have it their way- still recurving IMO. Look at why CMC is sending this into the Straits...don't focus on well since it shows it clearly there is no trof. That's not what is going to happen.

Thats because it has seen the light.. ..the NAM never really opened open a huge weakness and closes it quickly....NOGAPS similar...The trof is overdone IMO as we are getting into more reliable short range modeling.

[Ivanhater]

The name of the game right now is watching how quickly the storm consolidates. The models were already useful- they showed the synoptic pattern...which is a ridge and a trof sliding under to lift 91L.


If the models have it their way- still recurving IMO. Look at why CMC is sending this into the Straits...don't focus on well since it shows it clearly there is no trof. That's not what is going to happen.

Look at the upper air pattern on tonight's 00z GFS...huge change from previous runs. The pattern the models were showing the last few days is no longer the pattern the models are showing now. It can still change but you keep talking about the pattern as being stuck when clearly it has been changing all day.

[WeatherEmperor]

Dumb question: Does anybody have a link to the NOGAPS?

[Evil Jeremy]

So this has gone from a possible recurve, to a more possible GOM path??




Please God, let this finally be the drought buster that Texas needs Oh So Bad!!!

I've personally watched 2 ponds close to my house COMPLETELY disappear in less than a month!!!

A GOOD TS or hurricane is likey the ONLY thing that can put a dent into this awful drought!!

No models take this to Texas yet. That being said, there is a lot of uncertainty right now. The GOM could be entering the cards, maybe. The CMC has it in the east gulf, but that can change, it's just one run. No trend into the Gulf yet. Tomorrow perhaps, but Texas is safe for now. As long as you have the Cockroach Ridge of Death, you might not be getting many tropical systems.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES
EASTWARD SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED ABOUT 350
MILES EAST OF MARTINIQUE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL
STORM COULD FORM IN THIS AREA LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. IF
THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE TODAY...TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERY SHORT NOTICE...AND
INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS MORNING. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Swimdude]

Bed time--I guess I'll have to see what happens in the morning. Nothing would surprise me at this point, but I'd put my money on TD5 by 11 a.m. EST. See you in the morning 91L...

[South Texas Storms]

So this has gone from a possible recurve, to a more possible GOM path??




Please God, let this finally be the drought buster that Texas needs Oh So Bad!!!

I've personally watched 2 ponds close to my house COMPLETELY disappear in less than a month!!!

A GOOD TS or hurricane is likey the ONLY thing that can put a dent into this awful drought!!

I agree and I thought Don was just what the doctor ordered but clearly it was not. I guess we need something a lot stronger than a weak TS to end our awful drought.