ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[TwisterFanatic]

really starting to get its act together you can see it nicely here

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

From that loop, it almost looks like it is moving just south of west.


[/wobblewatcher]

[gatorcane]

Looks like it is trying to avoid Puerto Rico and go south of it?

[KWT]

Starting to wobble just due south of west.

Really feeling that ridge to the north......

Looking at a high resolution loop that was posted on another forum seems to me like the center is still moving around 270-275 and what you are seeing is the core wrap around the center a little stronger in the past hour and moving round the western flank, hence the apperence of going slightly south of west.

Extrap motion suggest S.PR right now.

[Hurricaneman]

If im seeing this right, It looks like this is going about 15 to 20 miles north of St Croix

[fci]

Gotta love The Weather Channel...the banners on the bottom of the screen right now say:

Tropical Storm Watch in effect from Leeward Islands to Puerto Rico

Maybe they will speculate if this storm will make it into the Gulf of Georgia?

Man, back in the John Hope days they used to be so good.
Bryan Norcross is very good but I guess only there for limited hours and has no control over the drivel they put on their banners.
How embarrassing..

[gatorcane]

The only thing that I will say is this system has constantly been east of the forecast points...may not mean much in the long run.

to be fair Mike the ECM has been east of Florida for a fair few runs now, its not like its the first time its done that and its had a FAR better grip of the systems track then most of the other models.

Still I won't disagree with you, to say Florida is out of the woods would be madness...and I agree the chances of a stronger hurricane have really increased as well today...if it takes the NHC track 80-90kts is probably do-able in explosive waters...if it takes the more easterly path, 105-120kts.

Another thing is that we are at the middle to end of August. Maybe the models are underestimating the strength of the Bermuda High?

[clfenwi]

Is recon even going to be able to get off of the ground with this thing passing right over them? Flying through a storm is one thing. Taking off and landing in it is a different proposition all together.

SFT

Well, the discussion kind of treated the mission like it's a go (at least it didn't say it was cancelled or explicitly mention the possibility of cancellation). C-130 is a robust plane, so I wouldn't think that physically taking off would be a problem. Only situation I could see delaying the mission is closure of the tower/runway.

[ozonepete]

Starting to wobble just due south of west.

Really feeling that ridge to the north......

Our first wobble watch this season?

[alienstorm]

Well SF still supposed to get a direct hit according to the 5:00 update and even earlier....by Thursday afternoon now. Gulp!!!

Still way too early. And remember that each set of model runs is moving it further east. But everyone from FL to NC should get all of their preps done now, of course. Looks pretty likely to be a quite strong hurricane wherever it hits. Good luck.

The Great Hurrican of 1935 went from a Tropical Depression over Andros Island to a CAT 5 in 24 hrs or less...

[gatorcane]

Starting to wobble just due south of west.

Really feeling that ridge to the north......

Our first wobble watch this season?

Yep, maybe!!!

All kidding aside looks like through Puerto Rico or just south of it....

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, still only 50 MPH??? Last night at this time I would have thought this would have been a cane by now!!... Must be dry air or something keeping it check....I'm starting to wonder if it will even hit hurricane strength by the time it hits Hispaniola , Especially since it still has 25 MPH to go to get there and Puerto Rico will probably keep it in check...

[3090]

Very large system also isn't it!

Current motion does look close to due west, so maybe a smidge south of the NHC track but really isnm't going to make a huge difference right now.

From going WNW, "it doesn't matter, to it is now going NW, "it doesn't matter", to now due west, maybe a smidge south of the NHC track but really isn't going to make a huge difference right now; when does a current movement really matter, in the grand scheme of things?

I have read on this forum all of the above. I don't get it. If a perceived motion/direction stated by a novice weather person (non-professional) is noted, and is followed up with a; "it really doesn't matter", what does that mean?

[Blown Away]

The only thing that I will say is this system has constantly been east of the forecast points...may not mean much in the long run.

to be fair Mike the ECM has been east of Florida for a fair few runs now, its not like its the first time its done that and its had a FAR better grip of the systems track then most of the other models.

Still I won't disagree with you, to say Florida is out of the woods would be madness...and I agree the chances of a stronger hurricane have really increased as well today...if it takes the NHC track 80-90kts is probably do-able in explosive waters...if it takes the more easterly path, 105-120kts.

Another thing is that we are at the middle to end of August. Maybe the models are underestimating the strength of the Bermuda High?

Another day or 2 they will send the NHC jet to sample N of Irene and will know then, IMO.

[Rainband]

Well SF still supposed to get a direct hit according to the 5:00 update and even earlier....by Thursday afternoon now. Gulp!!!

Still way too early. And remember that each set of model runs is moving it further east. But everyone from FL to NC should get all of their preps done now, of course. Looks pretty likely to be a quite strong hurricane wherever it hits. Good luck.

The Great Hurrican of 1935 went from a Tropical Depression over Andros Island to a CAT 5 in 24 hrs or less...

agreed but that was way farther north

[painkillerr]

Getting hammered in St. Thomas!

[KWT]

Another thing is that we are at the middle to end of August. Maybe the models are underestimating the strength of the Bermuda High?

Its certainly possible thats the case, the strengthening Bermuda High is one of the reasons I think this won't be able to recurve, at least before its inland anyway.

either way the path previously suggested that takes in most of Cuba isn't likely to happen so a muchstronger system then I was thinking probable yesterday will be occuring no matter of the exact track.

[fci]

Well SF still supposed to get a direct hit according to the 5:00 update and even earlier....by Thursday afternoon now. Gulp!!!

Still way too early. And remember that each set of model runs is moving it further east. But everyone from FL to NC should get all of their preps done now, of course. Looks pretty likely to be a quite strong hurricane wherever it hits. Good luck.

The Great Hurrican of 1935 went from a Tropical Depression over Andros Island to a CAT 5 in 24 hrs or less...

We can usually find great exceptions to the "norm", but usually one is safe to go with normal behavior and not expect ramp ups to Cat 4 and 5 very often.

[gatorcane]

Look how fast systems can intensify in the Bahamas/Straits

That's a depression to a CAT 5 in very little time

[KWT]

From going WNW, "it doesn't matter, to it is now going NW, "it doesn't matter", to now due west, maybe a smidge south of the NHC track but really isn't going to make a huge difference right now; when does a current movement really matter, in the grand scheme of things?

I have read on this forum all of the above. I don't get it. If a perceived motion/direction stated by a novice weather person (non-professional) is noted, and is followed up with a; "it really doesn't matter", what does that mean?

When the current motion holds itself for more then 2-3hrs...maybe more like 12-24hrs, then it starts to make a bigger difference to things...for PR its not going to matter because its not that tightly wound, I suspect by the time it reaches Hisopaniola any decent long lasting track shifts actually may make a difference to the exact location of landfall.

[3090]

Wobbles are funny. Remember the old saying; "Don't track the center, track the overall structure of the system".

The center, per se, can move around inside of the overall cloud pattern, but still the overall system can still be moving in the direction as forecasted.