ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[KWT]

gatorcane, I'd have been very interested to see just how a system like that looked, it pretty much pulled a Wilma/Charley, must have had some epic conditions aloft!

[SunnyThoughts]

Gotta be a nightmare setting up for NHC and whats going to have to take place in the next few days. If the system rides the coast as some of these models show...VERY close to the coast all the way up to the Carolinas...with possibly the western section of the actual core scraping the entire coastline with possible hurricane force winds...that is a LOT of people being affected. I guess its possible, that if and when watches and warnings go up, they could stretch from Miami all the way up to the outer banks of NC. What a mess that would be. Hopefully the models keep trending east and maybe the strongest winds stay off shore for most of the east coast. (Not a forecast by any means, just an opinion from a tropical watcher) Good luck everyone, take care and be safe.

[fci]

Look how fast systems can intensify in the Bahamas/Straits

That's a depression to a CAT 5 in very little time

True that, but if you were able to do the research to plot ALL systems in that location in the 76 years since this storm, I suspect you would see how much of an outlier it is. Like I mentioned previously, there are exceptions to be found to most every situation. I just don't react to them as it would drive me crazy and I would be even more sleep deprieved than I am now.
I say it is safe to put out of our minds the real chance that this will occur again, probably even in our lifetime, or our kids, or their kids......
Still, it makes for good discussion material and proves that in the tropics, the "Impossible" is always still "Possible".

[3090]

From going WNW, "it doesn't matter, to it is now going NW, "it doesn't matter", to now due west, maybe a smidge south of the NHC track but really isn't going to make a huge difference right now; when does a current movement really matter, in the grand scheme of things?

I have read on this forum all of the above. I don't get it. If a perceived motion/direction stated by a novice weather person (non-professional) is noted, and is followed up with a; "it really doesn't matter", what does that mean?

When the current motion holds itself for more then 2-3hrs...maybe more like 12-24hrs, then it starts to make a bigger difference to things...for PR its not going to matter because its not that tightly wound, I suspect by the time it reaches Hisopaniola any decent long lasting track shifts actually may make a difference to the exact location of landfall.

Oh, o.k....

[ncweatherwizard]

Models don't seem to be handling interaction with DR/Haiti very well. Few show much weakening; therefore, NHC has to be conservative in their estimates of weakening in the 24-48 hour window. Plus, I imagine they would rather err on the side of caution since a track along the north coast would yield a far different result. So the intensity forecast is tough and splits the outcome between two more likely scenarios: weakening of more than 15kts or maintaining a hurricane.

[tolakram]

1935 was a long time ago. I'd carefully suggest that some observations were not as good as today's so the intensification might not have been as dramatic as indicated.

[NDG]

Pressure down to 998mb in eastern St Croix, winds still up, she is strengthening.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=chsv3

[Dean4Storms]

Looks more west with a wobble just south of west recently.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[indian]

is irene making it into the central gulf a far fetched thought at this time?

[painkillerr]

St. Thomas

[AdamFirst]

is irene making it into the central gulf a far fetched thought at this time?

Yes.

[3090]

Models don't seem to be handling interaction with DR/Haiti very well. Few show much weakening; therefore, NHC has to be conservative in their estimates of weakening in the 24-48 hour window. Plus, I imagine they would rather err on the side of caution since a track along the north coast would yield a far different result. So the intensity forecast is tough and splits the outcome between two more likely scenarios: weakening of more than 15kts or maintaining a hurricane.

Interesting and very informative. I would say a track south of Puerto Rico and less interaction with the near by land masses (islands) also cause problems with long term forecast positions and future tracks.

[3090]

is irene making it into the central gulf a far fetched thought at this time?

Yes.

Really? Far fetched? Interesting.

I would say highly unlikely, but far fetched? That is a a bit of a stretch IMHO.

[WxEnthus]

Just curious -- how has Irene been reacting to D-MIN and D-MAX?

[HurricaneBelle]

is irene making it into the central gulf a far fetched thought at this time?

Yes.

Really? Far fetched? Interesting.

I would say highly unlikely, but far fetched? That is a a bit of a stretch IMHO.

Far-fetched and highly unlikely mean the same thing.

far-fetched
adj
improbable in nature; unlikely
Collins English Dictionary – Complete and Unabridged © HarperCollins Publishers 1991, 1994, 1998, 2000, 2003

[tolakram]

is irene making it into the central gulf a far fetched thought at this time?

Yes.

Really? Far fetched? Interesting.

I would say highly unlikely, but far fetched? That is a a bit of a stretch IMHO.

For both of you, reasoning? Otherwise I would either not respond or post reasoning with a forecast disclaimer.

My response:

No reliable model has this going very far west of Florida, and so far every model has been further east with each run. I think it's highly unlikely that Irene will make it west of Florida, but I don't know if it will hit Florida or go east.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[BatzVI]

St. Thomas and St. John under flash flood warning until 8:45pm...its h
owling up by the top of Barrett Hill.

[Portastorm]

The moderators thank you Tolakram!

[robbielyn]

Another thing is that we are at the middle to end of August. Maybe the models are underestimating the strength of the Bermuda High?

Its certainly possible thats the case, the strengthening Bermuda High is one of the reasons I think this won't be able to recurve, at least before its inland anyway.

either way the path previously suggested that takes in most of Cuba isn't likely to happen so a muchstronger system then I was thinking probable yesterday will be occuring no matter of the exact track.

who needs cuba when dr and hispaniola can do a nice job of beating irene up?

[cycloneye]

Ok peeps,I will sign off now as it looks like power will go off very soon as strong bands are comming in now ahead of the center and power has been intermitent. I say to all,I am safe and dry in my house that is secured with shutters so dont worry about me. I hope that nothing bad occurs in this island. I will have a post Irene report as soon the power is back.