ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[KWT]

Looks more west with a wobble just south of west recently.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

motion very close to due west, a smidge south of where the models forecasted at 12z, suspect system may stay a little south of the forecasted track in the short term anyway.

i don't think its heading WSw, its an illusion as the system wraps itself up tighter, this is backed up by the idea of stronger and stronger radar returns.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Center getting more compact per latest PR Long Range Doppler Radar.

[SouthernBreeze]

who needs cuba when dr and hispaniola can do a nice job of beating irene up?

Right - latest GFS in Model Forum shows Irene taking quite a beating from Hispaniola!

[ozonepete]

Ok peeps,I will sign off now as it looks like power will go off very soon as strong bands are comming in now ahead of the center and power has been intermitent. I say to all,I am safe and dry in my house that is secured with shutters so dont worry about me. I hope that nothing bad occurs in this island. I will have a post Irene report as soon the power is back.

OK. Good luck and stay safe, Luis. We will miss your fine work on here 'til you come back.

[EDR1222]

Ok peeps,I will sign off now as it looks like power will go off very soon as strong bands are comming in now ahead of the center and power has been intermitent. I say to all,I am safe and dry in my house that is secured with shutters so dont worry about me. I hope that nothing bad occurs in this island. I will have a post Irene report as soon the power is back.

Sounds good Luis....and please be safe. Hope to see you back on the forum soon.

[ozonepete]

Radar indicates the center of Irene is going to go over a good deal of PR.

[KWT]

Radar indicates the center of Irene is going to go over a good deal of PR.

Hmmm I'm not so sure anymore, i did think the center was tightening on the northern side of the circulation but the opposite is happening ajnd its closing around the southern side of the clear slot on radar.

If it does brush the south side of PR then it'll probably a hurricane pretty soon. I expect a hurricane before hispaniola no matter what the track given trends at the moment.

[NDG]

Pressure now down to 996.6mb at the ndbc station in eastern St Croix
Winds now WNW.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=chsv3

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 212209
AF302 0309A IRENE HDOB 01 20110821
215900 1742N 06448W 9981 00022 0003 +255 +197 360000 000 /// /// 03
215930 1742N 06448W 9981 00019 0004 +255 +197 360000 000 /// /// 03
220000 1742N 06448W 9981 00019 0003 +255 +197 360000 000 /// /// 03
220030 1742N 06448W 9981 00018 0003 +255 +197 360000 000 /// /// 03
220100 1742N 06448W 9980 00019 0003 +255 +198 360000 000 /// /// 03
220130 1742N 06448W 9979 00019 0002 +255 +198 360000 000 /// /// 03
220200 1742N 06448W 9979 00019 0002 +255 +198 360000 000 /// /// 03
220230 1742N 06448W 9979 00019 0002 +255 +198 360000 000 /// /// 03
220300 1742N 06448W 9979 00022 0004 +255 +199 360000 000 /// /// 03
220330 1742N 06448W 9979 00022 0004 +255 +199 360000 000 /// /// 03
220400 1742N 06448W 9978 00023 0005 +255 +199 360000 000 /// /// 03
220430 1742N 06448W 9979 00024 0006 +255 +199 360000 000 /// /// 03
220500 1742N 06448W 9978 00024 0007 +255 +199 360000 000 /// /// 03
220530 1742N 06448W 9978 00023 0007 +255 +199 360000 000 /// /// 03
220600 1742N 06448W 9978 00024 0007 +255 +199 360000 000 /// /// 03
220630 1742N 06448W 9978 00024 0006 +255 +199 360000 000 /// /// 03
220700 1742N 06448W 9978 00024 0006 +255 +199 360000 000 /// /// 03
220730 1742N 06448W 9977 00023 0005 +255 +200 360000 000 /// /// 03
220800 1742N 06448W 9977 00022 0004 +255 +200 360000 000 /// /// 03
220830 1742N 06448W 9977 00024 0006 +255 +200 360000 000 /// /// 03
$$
;

000
URNT15 KNHC 212219
AF302 0309A IRENE HDOB 02 20110821
220900 1742N 06448W 9978 00024 0006 +255 +200 360000 000 /// /// 03
220930 1742N 06448W 9977 00023 0004 +255 +200 360000 000 /// /// 03
221000 1742N 06448W 9977 00022 0002 +255 +200 360000 000 /// /// 03
221030 1742N 06448W 9977 00022 0003 +255 +200 360000 000 /// /// 03
221100 1742N 06448W 9977 00021 0002 +255 +201 360000 000 /// /// 03
221130 1742N 06448W 9977 00023 0002 +255 +201 360000 000 /// /// 03
221200 1742N 06448W 9975 00021 0000 +255 +201 360000 000 /// /// 03
221230 1742N 06448W 9975 00022 0000 +255 +202 360000 000 /// /// 03
221300 1742N 06448W 9979 00022 0005 +258 +202 360000 000 /// /// 03
221330 1742N 06448W 9978 00023 0005 +258 +203 360000 000 /// /// 03
221400 1742N 06448W 9975 00024 0005 +255 +204 360000 000 /// /// 03
221430 1742N 06448W 9975 00024 0004 +255 +204 360000 000 /// /// 03
221500 1742N 06448W 9975 00019 9998 +255 +204 360000 000 /// /// 03
221530 1742N 06448W 9973 00018 9996 +255 +205 360000 000 /// /// 03
221600 1742N 06448W 9975 00016 9994 +255 +205 360000 000 /// /// 03
221630 1742N 06447W 9975 00015 9993 +255 +205 360000 000 /// /// 03
221700 1742N 06447W 9973 00017 9992 +255 +205 360000 000 /// /// 03
221730 1742N 06447W 9973 00015 9991 +255 +205 360000 000 /// /// 03
221800 1742N 06447W 9974 00015 9991 +252 +205 360000 000 /// /// 03
221830 1742N 06447W 9972 00015 9990 +250 +205 360000 000 /// /// 03
$$
;

[pricetag56]

when does recon go out again?

[Evil Jeremy]

Recon is rolling.

[JTE50]

Radar indicates the center of Irene is going to go over a good deal of PR.

Indeed, and likely gusts to hurricane strength

[jlauderdal]

J - looks like your 150 miles off of FLL might be from the wrong direction.

exactly, i did a very early morning post about my 150 prediction, i should get some verification points though for distance

I think your 150 prediction may well be pretty close.
I hope so!
Of course, based on your prior posts on past storms you are feeling VERY comfortable since you are located smack dab on the NHC track!

yep and so is richard pasch based on his 5pm disco.....ESPECIALLY AT
DAYS 4 TO 5 SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE
FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES RESPECTIVELY.

[NDG]

It hasn't even taken off, as is already reporting 999mb pressure with the center going on top of them, this too cool!

URNT15 KNHC 212219
AF302 0309A IRENE HDOB 02 20110821
220900 1742N 06448W 9978 00024 0006 +255 +200 360000 000 /// /// 03
220930 1742N 06448W 9977 00023 0004 +255 +200 360000 000 /// /// 03
221000 1742N 06448W 9977 00022 0002 +255 +200 360000 000 /// /// 03
221030 1742N 06448W 9977 00022 0003 +255 +200 360000 000 /// /// 03
221100 1742N 06448W 9977 00021 0002 +255 +201 360000 000 /// /// 03
221130 1742N 06448W 9977 00023 0002 +255 +201 360000 000 /// /// 03
221200 1742N 06448W 9975 00021 0000 +255 +201 360000 000 /// /// 03
221230 1742N 06448W 9975 00022 0000 +255 +202 360000 000 /// /// 03
221300 1742N 06448W 9979 00022 0005 +258 +202 360000 000 /// /// 03
221330 1742N 06448W 9978 00023 0005 +258 +203 360000 000 /// /// 03
221400 1742N 06448W 9975 00024 0005 +255 +204 360000 000 /// /// 03
221430 1742N 06448W 9975 00024 0004 +255 +204 360000 000 /// /// 03
221500 1742N 06448W 9975 00019 9998 +255 +204 360000 000 /// /// 03
221530 1742N 06448W 9973 00018 9996 +255 +205 360000 000 /// /// 03
221600 1742N 06448W 9975 00016 9994 +255 +205 360000 000 /// /// 03
221630 1742N 06447W 9975 00015 9993 +255 +205 360000 000 /// /// 03
221700 1742N 06447W 9973 00017 9992 +255 +205 360000 000 /// /// 03
221730 1742N 06447W 9973 00015 9991 +255 +205 360000 000 /// /// 03
221800 1742N 06447W 9974 00015 9991 +252 +205 360000 000 /// /// 03
221830 1742N 06447W 9972 00015 9990 +250 +205 360000 000 /// /// 03
$$
;

[blazess556]

recon reporting at least 999 mb

[ozonepete]

Radar indicates the center of Irene is going to go over a good deal of PR.

Hmmm I'm not so sure anymore, i did think the center was tightening on the northern side of the circulation but the opposite is happening ajnd its closing around the southern side of the clear slot on radar.

If it does brush the south side of PR then it'll probably a hurricane pretty soon. I expect a hurricane before hispaniola no matter what the track given trends at the moment.

Hey, K, with the utmost respect, are we looking at the same radar?

[clfenwi]

Plan for tomorrow's Gulfstream IV flight



Source

[robbielyn]

Pressure now down to 996.6mb at the ndbc station in eastern St Croix
Winds now WNW.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=chsv3

whats the pressure in terms of millibars need to be at to be a cat 1 74mph?

[NDG]

Eye!

[SouthDadeFish]

Pressure now down to 996.6mb at the ndbc station in eastern St Croix
Winds now WNW.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=chsv3

whats the pressure in terms of millibars need to be at to be a cat 1 74mph?

There is no requirement. Pressure gradient is what matters. Usually, the necessary pressure to make this gradient is around 990-992mb. It can be much different though. It depends on the storm.