ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

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brunota2003
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#2381 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Aug 21, 2011 5:31 pm

Looks like they are trying to get off the ground while they are in the "eye" of the system...hence the earlier time.
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#2382 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Aug 21, 2011 5:31 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 212229
AF302 0309A IRENE HDOB 03 20110821
221900 1742N 06447W 9973 00017 9992 +250 +207 360000 000 /// /// 03
221930 1742N 06447W 9972 00016 9992 +250 +239 360000 000 /// /// 03
222000 1742N 06447W 9974 00017 9993 +250 +245 360000 000 /// /// 03
222030 1742N 06447W 9969 00017 9991 +249 +246 360000 000 /// /// 03
222100 1742N 06447W 9970 00017 9991 +245 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
222130 1742N 06447W 9970 00017 9987 +243 //// 236002 006 /// /// 05
222200 1742N 06448W 9962 00021 9974 +244 //// 242014 018 /// /// 05
222230 1742N 06449W 9723 00230 9977 +236 //// 275017 019 /// /// 05
222300 1742N 06451W 9370 00549 9975 +220 //// 321024 027 /// /// 05
222330 1741N 06452W 8969 00929 9969 +207 //// 323026 027 /// /// 05
222400 1740N 06453W 8602 01290 9971 +188 //// 317027 028 /// /// 05
222430 1738N 06452W 8390 01515 9976 +185 +178 309028 030 /// /// 03
222500 1738N 06450W 8341 01571 9982 +181 +168 302026 026 /// /// 03
222530 1740N 06449W 8316 01590 9976 +178 +171 296021 022 /// /// 03
222600 1740N 06449W 8316 01590 9968 +181 +174 288018 019 /// /// 03
222630 1743N 06447W 8309 01590 9966 +179 +174 277014 015 /// /// 03
222700 1744N 06446W 8306 01587 9956 +185 +173 242008 010 /// /// 03
222730 1746N 06445W 8307 01585 9956 +183 +174 204009 010 /// /// 03
222800 1747N 06444W 8303 01585 9954 +180 +175 186012 014 /// /// 03
222830 1749N 06443W 8309 01579 9956 +178 +174 173017 017 /// /// 03
$$
;
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#2383 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 21, 2011 5:31 pm

We will see soon whether they fly, might be a little on the dodgy side, but then again i suppose they are used to these conditions and if they can get up in the air the worst should be easing off by the time they get back down.

Cool map by ther way, where did you find that!
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2384 Postby Jimsot » Sun Aug 21, 2011 5:32 pm

Right now on Anguilla (south east coast) we are getting the strongest squalls we have had all day and IRENE is a good 100 miles from us. Quite a circulation!
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Re:

#2385 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Aug 21, 2011 5:32 pm



She's becoming really organized now. Looking at this, motion is either west or slightly south of due west.
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Re: Re:

#2386 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 21, 2011 5:32 pm

robbielyn wrote:
NDG wrote:Pressure now down to 996.6mb at the ndbc station in eastern St Croix
Winds now WNW.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=chsv3


whats the pressure in terms of millibars need to be at to be a cat 1 74mph?


It all depends in the overall surface environment, is all about pressure gradient.
But officialy in the Atlantic is at least 987mb the average for a Cat 1
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Re:

#2387 Postby plasticup » Sun Aug 21, 2011 5:33 pm

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#2388 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Aug 21, 2011 5:33 pm

Haha...they made it off the ground, and the first set of obs already have the wind shift...VDM off the first HDOB while airborne? :lol:
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2389 Postby S2K1 » Sun Aug 21, 2011 5:34 pm

She's gonna skirt southern edge PR

imho
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#2390 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 21, 2011 5:34 pm

NDG, thats too cool, you can see the pressure dropping away as the plane sits there.

At least we know the pressure is at 999mbs already!

Looks like the inner core is tigthening up before it makes landfall on S.PR.

Cycloneye and others, stay safe!!
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#2391 Postby Hylian Auree » Sun Aug 21, 2011 5:34 pm

Average pressure for Cat 1 intensity based on what history has shown us is a pressure of around the 990s, usually lower than 993 mbar. But really, it does depend on the pressure gradient; a tighter gradient produces higher winds
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2392 Postby msbee » Sun Aug 21, 2011 5:34 pm

Has anyone heard from cycloneye?
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#2393 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 21, 2011 5:35 pm

Winds now switching in the eastern side of St Croix, should see their winds really pick up, pressure holding steady at 996.6mb

Conditions at CHSV3 as of
(6:06 pm AST)

Wind Direction (WDIR): SSW ( 200 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 12.0 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 14.0 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.43 in
Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.9 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.8 °
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#2394 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Aug 21, 2011 5:35 pm

He left a little while ago, his power was flickering.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2395 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Aug 21, 2011 5:35 pm

msbee wrote:Has anyone heard from cycloneye?


Hunkered down for the storm
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Re: Re:

#2396 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 21, 2011 5:36 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:


She's becoming really organized now. Looking at this, motion is either west or slightly south of due west.


Yeah its getting better, still thinki ts heading about 270-275 right now, the WSW wobbles are an illusion due to the tightening of the inner core, IMO of course!
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Re:

#2397 Postby TwisterFanatic » Sun Aug 21, 2011 5:36 pm



Looks like it could stay just south or skirt southern PR as the 18z NAM depicted.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2398 Postby Macrocane » Sun Aug 21, 2011 5:36 pm

I think that Irene has been at least 55 kt since the time when RECON left this morning and NHC may have been underestimating the intensity, I could be wrong of course and RECON is going to confirm or deny my unofficial and non professional opinion.
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#2399 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Aug 21, 2011 5:37 pm

Image
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#2400 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 21, 2011 5:37 pm

Recon just took off, verifies the 996mb reading in the eastern section of the island.

222830 1749N 06443W 8309 01579 9956 +178 +174 173017 017 /// /// 03
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