ATL: IRENE - Models

[KWT]

GFS, EURO and Canadian now keep this to the east of Florida and show more of a problem for Georgia and the Carolinas...Florida would be on the weaker side as opposed if this moved into the eastern Gulf.

Its worse for Florida as well bar maybe the far west...

Think about it, rather thena65-75kts system coming in and going up the spine, you've mgot a 110-120kts hurrricane...the winds on the western side will probably be the same as what it would have if it took the other route.

I've said time and time again this will NOT recurve, the upper pattern is a little different to most storms, more like what it was with say Hugo, though probably not quite such a NW bend.

This is my worst case showing here, a system without signficant land interaction that has the synoptics aloft to prevent a total recurve...

When you get that, you tend to get Hazel/Hugo type strength systems into the east coast...BIG worry.

[Scorpion]

GFS, EURO and Canadian now keep this to the east of Florida and show more of a problem for Georgia and the Carolinas...Florida would be on the weaker side as opposed if this moved into the eastern Gulf.

Its worse for Florida as well bar maybe the far west...

Think about it, rather thena65-75kts system coming in and going up the spine, you've mgot a 110-120kts hurrricane...the winds on the western side will probably be the same as what it would have if it took the other route.

I've said time and time again this will NOT recurve, the upper pattern is a little different to most storms, more like what it was with say Hugo, though probably not quite such a NW bend.

This is my worst case showing here, a system without signficant land interaction that has the synoptics aloft to prevent a total recurve...

When you get that, you tend to get Hazel/Hugo type strength systems into the east coast...BIG worry.

Agreed, especially if the core stays just off shore so it can still strengthen but yet create hurricane conditions on the Florida East Coast.

[linkerweather]

Remember, this is just one run of a model that has been "fairly" consistent in developing a SE US hurricane for the last week or so. But, solutions have ranged from Texas to the Carolinas, with most through the spine of Florida. I don't foresee a recurve as others have posted, but not certain where it begins that NW move. The GFS ensembles with each run have generally been west of the actual GFS output.

[HurricaneWarning92]

Looking at the latest GFS run, a tad delay of the turn to the north around Andros Island, and it would come ashore South Florida. There is still many ifs up in the air.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Is this the first run that ended without a landfall in the runs time frame? If it did make landfall in the run, where at? I missed it.

[WeatherEmperor]

Looking at the latest GFS run, a tad delay of the turn to the north around Andros Island, and it would come ashore South Florida. There is still many ifs up in the air.

That is exactly what I am worried about. It looks like it will come close enough to the east coast of FL that any deviation to the west by as little as 15-20 miles could make a difference as to how hard we could potentially get hit. I am sure you agree with me on this, it should come close enough to cause concern in south florida.

[KWT]

Yeah its still a really tight call, wouldn't feel at all happy if I lived in Florida yet.

Still the track forecasted by the GFS is a prime track type for a major hurricane...a further west track and you'll probably get a much weaker storm due to land interaction.

12z ECM is going to be SO interesting tonight!

[SeminoleWind]

Looking at the latest GFS run, a tad delay of the turn to the north around Andros Island, and it would come ashore South Florida. There is still many ifs up in the air.

just a 4-8 delay in that forecast turn could mean hurricane conditions for all of east central Florida also

[gatorcane]

Hi folks checking in....yes there is a trend east with the models..but just yesterday the ensembles were in the Central GOM. This one is definitely worrisome. The angle of approach to South FL is going to make this very difficult perhaps..storms like Floyd, David, Cleo, come to mind. Bahamas under the gun. Lots of loooong days and nights on storm2k ahead.

Almighty Euro is next...I got to think it takes it east of Florida also but as a very powerful system....how much east is going to be important.

[psyclone]

we certainly have a trend in florida's favor at this point. let's see if it persists.

lol I am not very comfortable with a hurricane passing a 100 miles to my east considering the track error in that time frame is greater then 100 miles. I have a flight out of Miami thursday night so I am hoping this misses us to the east.

you shouldn't be comfortable with a cane passing 100 miles to your east. but you should be heartened to some extent when multiple runs keep taking it a bit more east each time. that is a slow trend with ample time to yield a good result for florida should it persist. that was my only observation...holy smokes i gotta watch it around here...people spaz out!

[LowndesCoFire]

Irene in the Hebert Box at present, right?

[WeatherEmperor]

12z nogaps is nearly identical.. except instead of nnw turn like the gfs at day 5 it stays straight north..

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Yes Aric. If you look carefully, the Nogaps brings the center of Irene a little bit closer to the east coast of FL compared to the GFS. It looks like maybe 25 miles or so closer to FL compared to GFS. Either way, it looks to get very close to FL.

[thundercam96]

There have been dynamical models that develop this in to a high end major hurricane. The Track is Now East of flordia just 24 hours after it was projected to be in the gulf. If it ends up not recurving and heading for east coast of Flordia, ,What will be the Strength?

[psyclone]

Remember, this is just one run of a model that has been "fairly" consistent in developing a SE US hurricane for the last week or so. But, solutions have ranged from Texas to the Carolinas, with most through the spine of Florida. I don't foresee a recurve as others have posted, but not certain where it begins that NW move. The GFS ensembles with each run have generally been west of the actual GFS output.

Josh you have lots of people in the bay area depending on terrific bay news 9 team! eat your wheaties!

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian is even further east..good distance off Florida

[maxintensity]

delete

[tolakram]

Irene in the Hebert Box at present, right?

Yes, but it doesn't mean what you think it does. Lot of storms pass through the Herbert box and never hit Florida, but most storms that hit Florida pass through the Herbert box.

[SeminoleWind]

i suspect IF the NHC moves the cone at all it will be a modest shift to the right but i wouldn't expect much.

[Ivanhater]

Misses the entire east coast through 144 hours...maybe brushing the outer banks

[linkerweather]

Remember, this is just one run of a model that has been "fairly" consistent in developing a SE US hurricane for the last week or so. But, solutions have ranged from Texas to the Carolinas, with most through the spine of Florida. I don't foresee a recurve as others have posted, but not certain where it begins that NW move. The GFS ensembles with each run have generally been west of the actual GFS output.

Josh you have lots of people in the bay area depending on terrific bay news 9 team! eat your wheaties!

Thanks...we try to keep the hype machine of local media in check. Wheaties? Maybe Lucky charms!!!