ATL: ARLENE - Remnants

#241 Postby **NDG** » Tue Jun 28, 2011 5:17 pm

Surface pressure at buoy 42055 continous to plummet down to 1005.7 mb, wind gust back up to 33 mph.

Conditions at 42055 as of
(4:50 pm CDT)

Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 90 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 29.1 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 9.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 9 sec
Average Period (APD): 6.2 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ENE ( 72 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.70 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.05 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.4 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.0 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 75.7 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 86.0 °F

#242 Postby **lrak** » Tue Jun 28, 2011 5:26 pm

Wow the center is really close or the disturbance is getting bigger. Can't wait till that turns to a hard south wind for a few days.

#243 Postby **sponger** » Tue Jun 28, 2011 5:31 pm

It may be a small swirl but it feels good to listen to the discussion and look at graphics again. I always miss the action of hurricane season. Welcome to all the newbies and hello to the old timers. It is going to be a great season! S2k is there best information center on the internet!

#244 Postby **lrak** » Tue Jun 28, 2011 5:42 pm

sponger wrote:It may be a small swirl but it feels good to listen to the discussion and look at graphics again. I always miss the action of hurricane season. Welcome to all the newbies and hello to the old timers. It is going to be a great season! S2k is there best information center on the internet!

Hello,

I just looked at the visible and its really starting to look more favorable up top.

lebron23 · #245 Postby **lebron23** » Tue Jun 28, 2011 5:52 pm

next TWO in about an hour should keep 90

WmE · #246 Postby **WmE** » Tue Jun 28, 2011 5:53 pm

Looks like this might be our first storm this year. Arlene sounds kinda eerie. Let's hope this season turns out different than the last time Arlene was used.

lebron23 · #247 Postby **lebron23** » Tue Jun 28, 2011 5:55 pm

WmE wrote:Looks like this might be our first storm this year. Arlene sounds kinda eerie. Let's hope this season turns out different than the last time Arlene was used.

2005.

Migle · #248 Postby **Migle** » Tue Jun 28, 2011 5:58 pm

Yeah, I expect them to keep it at 90 to. It's best to give it another 12 hours and see where it's at in the morning and then upgrade if need be.

#249 Postby **lrak** » Tue Jun 28, 2011 6:09 pm

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

buoy

#250 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Tue Jun 28, 2011 6:09 pm

Very close to a TS, only need a bit of deepening convection around the center and this will organize pretty quickly. The 12Z ECMWF may be correct with a 998mb landfall.

lebron23 · #251 Postby **lebron23** » Tue Jun 28, 2011 6:11 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:Very close to a TS, only need a bit of deepening convection around the center and this will organize pretty quickly. The 12Z ECMWF may be correct with a 998mb landfall.

I agree.

#252 Postby **brunota2003** » Tue Jun 28, 2011 6:11 pm

Just out of curiosity, what is with the convection north of the Yucatan? Seems to be firing off nicely, though that is too far for the LLC to jump, even though it is very weak.

#253 Postby **NDG** » Tue Jun 28, 2011 6:15 pm

brunota2003 wrote:Just out of curiosity, what is with the convection north of the Yucatan? Seems to be firing off nicely, though that is too far for the LLC to jump, even though it is very weak.

Fairly normal for weak systems to have converging type areas of convection on the east (wet) side of the system well removed from the center of circulation.

#254 Postby **NDG** » Tue Jun 28, 2011 6:16 pm

Center of circulation must be getting close to buoy 42055, reporting a pressure now down to 1005mb, waves getting close to 11 feet.

Center of 95L is getting close to buoy 42055, reporting pressure down to 1005mb, waves close to 11 feet.

Conditions at 42055 as of
(5:50 pm CDT)

Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 90 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 29.1 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 10.8 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 9 sec
Average Period (APD): 6.5 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ENE ( 74 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.69 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.05 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.9 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.8 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 75.9 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 84.9 °F

#255 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Tue Jun 28, 2011 6:16 pm

Bay of Campeche disturbance wrapping up...Tropical Depression 01 tonight??

http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... -imminent/ ‎

lebron23 · #256 Postby **lebron23** » Tue Jun 28, 2011 6:20 pm

fact789 wrote:Bay of Campeche disturbance wrapping up...Tropical Depression 01 tonight??

http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... -imminent/ ‎

I think they would go straight to Tropical Storm Arlene...My guess....11am tomorrow morning

#257 Postby **NDG** » Tue Jun 28, 2011 6:31 pm

Looks like we got Arlene in the next advisory.

#258 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jun 28, 2011 6:32 pm

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al952011_al012011.ren
R
U
040
010
0000
201106282316
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 012011.ren

JTE50 · #259 Postby **JTE50** » Tue Jun 28, 2011 6:32 pm

lebron23 wrote:
fact789 wrote:Bay of Campeche disturbance wrapping up...Tropical Depression 01 tonight??

http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... -imminent/ ‎

I think they would go straight to Tropical Storm Arlene...My guess....11am tomorrow morning

Interesting how we had Alex last year about the same time and about the same area.

lebron23 · #260 Postby **lebron23** » Tue Jun 28, 2011 6:36 pm

Im going to guess the TWO gets bumped up to 100 percent.

ATL: ARLENE - Remnants

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