ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[KWT]

Recurves are so boring. Over and over again, that happened last year. I read an article recently stating reasons why the storms would not recurve so much this year. Looks like the article was wrong....

Wow, thats a bit hasty isn't it...esp given this system hasn't even formed yet. Whilst highly likely to form, its not impossible this one either struggles or doesn't develop at all....Gaston last year was an example of that.

[cycloneye]

18z Tropicals and Ensembles tracks

[KWT]

Very interesting models, HWRF is an outlier, the GFDL/ECM both keep this very weak/barely present...

Thus model agreement on development not as strong as it was this morning, is this the start of the drawback from the models or is it just a wobble from those two?

[TheBurn]

[caneman]

From my personal experience, a system coming in as low as the Euro has this one, it would be highly unusual for a system to recurve..

[KWT]

Convection really is trying to pop, I wonder if the convection to the SE is the area the ECM splits the energy between and prevents a proper TC from developing...

Hopefully we end up with recon and it doesn't get cancelled...will be cool to watch it that far east.

[Aric Dunn]

Just like with Don. and so far this year. the strength of the trough seems a little orver blown. when the models had 90L developing east of the island. most of the models had a recurve after a couple runs. This time a year to see that kind of a frontal system is not likely.

[Portastorm]

Very interesting models, HWRF is an outlier, the GFDL/ECM both keep this very weak/barely present...

Thus model agreement on development not as strong as it was this morning, is this the start of the drawback from the models or is it just a wobble from those two?

And, consequently, the less developed/strong storm will not be so easily pulled poleward, correct?

[Steve H.]

Yeah, in the last couple of visibles before darkness moves in, 91L looks to me like its starting to tighten up. Despite little model enthusiasm, I think this one will be a go. Shear is lessening, and moisture should be increasing as it moves toward the west. Islands keep an eye on this over the weekend.

[KWT]

If thats the case Portastorm then its probably a Yucatan/Texas/Mexico threat...

I'm really curious to see what the 12z GFDL does to cause it to lose the system, anyone got the link for it?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Lastest long range discussion from the HPC:

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
215 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011

VALID 12Z MON AUG 01 2011 - 12Z FRI AUG 05 2011

A COMPOSITE OF MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGER
SCALE FLOW PATTERN HIGHLIGHTED ALOFT BY PERSISTENT TROFFING FROM
THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE NWRN US WITH EMBEDDED SYSTEMS
SUBSEQUENTLY PROGRESSING OUT GENERALLY ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER AND INTO A MEAN NERN US TROF POSITION DOWNSTREAM...ALL
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A WELL DEVELOPED MID-LATITUDE RIDGE
UNDERNEATH.PREFER TO MAINTAIN CLOSE HPC CONTINUITY IN THIS SUMMERTIME MEDIUM
RANGE WEATHER PATTERN THAT OFFERS GOOD PREDICTABILITY AT LARGER
SCALES BUT SPORATIC SMALLER SCALE ISSUES.

HPC PROGS WERE PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM THE 00Z ECMWF FOR DAY 3/MON
AND WE SEE MINIMAL COMPELLING REASON FOR MUCH FURTHER ADJUSTMENT
BASED ON PRETTY SUPPORTIVE 12 UTC MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
HPC PROGS STILL TRANSITION QUICKLY TO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BY
DAYS 5-7/WED-FRI AMID GROWING SMALLER SCALE UNCERTAINTY.

FURTHER IN TIME...THE 00 UTC GEM GLOBAL WAS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
THE ECMWF WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST...WITH THE 00 UTC UKMET
MORE ZONAL FROM THE PLAINS EASTWARD. RECENT GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN
MORE MORE NOISY AT SMALLER SCALES...WITH SOME OF ITS SURFACE WAVES
APPEARING A BIT FEDBACK. THE GEFS MEAN IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK...BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH THE POLAR JET OVER SOUTHERN CANADA DAYS 6/7 THU/FRI. ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEMBER SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA LATE IN THE FORECAST
INDICATES INCREASING UNCERTAINTY BY THEN...BUT OVERALL ITS HOLDING
ONTO SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID-LATITUDE RIDGING UNDERNEATH OVER THE
LOWER 48 THAN THE GEFS SEEMS A BETTER BET CONSIDERING AMBIENT
RIDGE STRENGTH. WE SEE MINIMAL COMPELLING REASON TO ADJUST HPC
CONTINUITY MUCH FOR DAYS 4-7 TUE-FRI AFTER CONSIDERATION OF LATEST
12 UTC MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

CISCO/SCHICHTEL

Source:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

[HurricaneWarning92]

To me it looks like its heading wnw instead of mainly due west... also i see two rotations...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[KWT]

I think the only reason why some models lose it is they develop TWO vort areas which never quite able to tighten up, much like you see sometimes in the SW Caribbean in the latter part of the season, they just disrupt each other too much to allow either to strengthen...

The other models seem not to have that issue, or at least no where near as much and thus are much more agressive with regards to development.

PS, its quite possible the two circulations is part of what the ECM has been seeing in its last few runs...I feel at the very least it may well slow down development.

[Portastorm]

If thats the case Portastorm then its probably a Yucatan/Texas/Mexico threat...

I'm really curious to see what the 12z GFDL does to cause it to lose the system, anyone got the link for it?

Speaking from my drought-ridden, bitter perspective, it's hard for me to believe that a large tropical system would beat down the death ridge and impact Texas.

KWT, here's a link to a page with a number of runs on it including the 12z GFDL.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2011072912-invest91l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[northjaxpro]

All that means is a greater threat to the U.S mainland down the road with it staying weaker in the short term. I think we are all aware this is going to develop imo. Also, the Euro ensemble does not steer us wrong most of the time and there are many hints that more ridging is down the pike.

Yeah thats the fear, my biggest fear for now though is a track like Hugo's, its too far south IMO for there to be much chance of it missing the islands...I suspect a track close to Earl's, but further west is probable...which is probably bad news for the east coast if that comes off...

Interesting you bought this up. The location where 91L is currently is about where Hugo was born as well in '89. Of course, we all know the trrack of Hugo and what a monster it became. Like you KWT, I think the Hugo-like track would be the worst case scenario for the U.S. Mainland for sure. I definitely do not want to look far ahead. It's far too early to speculate for the U.S. Mainland, but the folks in the Leeward Islands, The U.S. & British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico really need to focus on preparing potentially for the potential of a very significant tropical cyclone impacting them early-middle part of next week.

[KWT]

Ah, so the GFDL tries to jmp the system 5 degrees northwards and just 8 degrees west in the space of 36hrs.

[Aric Dunn]

Anyone else notice how the circulation has completely disrupted the ITCZ and altered the flow all the way down to 0N lol... its pretty crazy.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rgb.html

[gatorcane]

It's interesting that some of the GFS ensemble members are bending it to the west at the end.

Again very early to say where it goes. It depends on a lot. But definitely cannot claim the U.S. mainland is "okay" at this point at all when we are 8-9 days away from any kind of impact.

It does looks like the longer it takes to get its act together the more west it will go.

Then again, maybe it just doesn't develop for a while which I think is very possible..may take 3-4 days at least.

[KWT]

Yep, the longer it takes to develop the more likely that central America comes into possible play as a destination, which I know sounds abit extreme...but if it bypasses the upper trough at 60-65W it'll probably cruise through the Caribbean.

Models still seem overall to be more suggestive of development despite a couple of models jumping off the development train.

[Weatherfreak000]

Getting hard to believe 91L won't develop now. I would kinda like to see 91L stay shallow and get into the Caribbean....I think I can honestly say 2011 is much different than 2005 but I believe the storms were recurving around this time then as well (F or H storm?).