ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
USTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2623
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
Location: Florida State University

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#241 Postby USTropics » Wed Aug 10, 2011 10:49 am

Hey Ivan, haven't seen you post as frequently, hope everything is good :) and yea no need to get antsy with each other over a mere invest that is closer to Africa than the U.S. right now.

Anyways just my subjective thoughts on what I think will occur after viewing this mornings model runs. I see this system developing and staying far enough north to miss the leeward and accompanying islands before recurving out to sea with a potential Bermuda hit. I can see this reaching hurricane strength once the dry air intrusion and environmental conditions become more favorable. The potential wave that has me more worried is the one that is forecasted to exit Africa in the next couple of days. It looks like it will come off and stay more south in latitude. It looks to be close enough to 92l where it may have difficulty early on getting going, with the models suggesting it may not lift north with 92l and instead move into the Caribbean.
0 likes   

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10119
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#242 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 10, 2011 11:17 am

So much dry/dust air ahead of 92L, IMO there will be some east consolidation w/ the wave just behind.
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

User avatar
NONAME
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 373
Age: 34
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2006 8:15 am
Location: Where the Wind Blows

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#243 Postby NONAME » Wed Aug 10, 2011 11:28 am

floridasun78 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:pretty good LLC developing. convection starting to build over it. Chances should go up later if more convection builds

Image

i notice that too their no storm over center it look like their se shear over 92l


It probably more due to dry air then anything else really.
0 likes   

User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4802
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#244 Postby ronjon » Wed Aug 10, 2011 11:30 am

Big Shift west on 12z GFS - trough lifting out and ridging buiding in after 6 days - may be a close call for US east coast.

12z GFS 156 hrs
0 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11421
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#245 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 10, 2011 11:41 am

Looks like it is developing a small warm-core at 12km altitude and PV anomaly is mid-level at roughly the same height.

Radius-of-Max-Winds (RMW) is at 150km which is relatively close to the COC.



Image


Image
0 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11421
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#246 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 10, 2011 11:57 am

0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 142552
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#247 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 10, 2011 12:14 pm

For model plots and tracks about other systems post them at Talking Tropics forum.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11421
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#248 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 10, 2011 12:14 pm

Possible Recon on Saturday



WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT WED 10 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-071

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 18.0N 52.5W AT 13/1800Z.
0 likes   

OuterBanker
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1727
Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2003 10:53 am
Location: Nags Head, NC
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#249 Postby OuterBanker » Wed Aug 10, 2011 12:15 pm

Yep, Ronjon.

Trough split and ridging comming off Canada in 6 to 10. Traditional set up for seus strikes. Also, MoJO will be favorable then too.

I will agree that early development almost guarantees a fish, especially at this high a latitude. But, you never know.

Some storms that were predicted to be fish were kicked west into seus. Isabel comes to mind.
0 likes   

User avatar
BigA
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1317
Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 10:56 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#250 Postby BigA » Wed Aug 10, 2011 12:18 pm

NOGAPS (not good model, but might as well mention it) takes it just north of the islands and into the Bahamas, with a possible threat to US east coast.
0 likes   

underthwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2239
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:14 pm
Location: Brazoria County Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#251 Postby underthwx » Wed Aug 10, 2011 12:38 pm

Should 92L be moving towards a more favorable environment less shear etc?
0 likes   

User avatar
lester
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1305
Age: 35
Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2005 5:21 pm
Location: Washington, DC
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#252 Postby lester » Wed Aug 10, 2011 12:39 pm

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 450 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...HOWEVER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
0 likes   

User avatar
Jevo
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1729
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
Location: The Flemish Cap
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#253 Postby Jevo » Wed Aug 10, 2011 12:45 pm

Well hello there SAL.. Our friend SAL looks to be clearing the way for ole 92L until the Dustbowl-O-Doom North of PR/DR

Image
0 likes   
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.

gmr548
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 16
Joined: Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:46 pm
Location: Austin, TX

#254 Postby gmr548 » Wed Aug 10, 2011 12:59 pm

Probably a dumb question, but is this one all but certain to curve up into the Atlantic/east coast region? Is there any chance that it heads into the Gulf of Mexico?
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthDadeFish
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2835
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

Re:

#255 Postby SouthDadeFish » Wed Aug 10, 2011 1:03 pm

gmr548 wrote:Probably a dumb question, but is this one all but certain to curve up into the Atlantic/east coast region? Is there any chance that it heads into the Gulf of Mexico?


It's quite too early to say, and you should watch it just in case. Much can change in a week. However, at this time recurvature looks more likely in my opinion (which is not professional).
0 likes   

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10119
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#256 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 10, 2011 1:10 pm

Looking at the TWO Yellow Polygon, pretty clear the NHC is not sure if 92L/Pouch 14L will be it's own entity or will merge w/ the wave behind it, Pouch 15L. I'm leaning towards the merge w/ a good moisture front to protect this area from the dry/duse air to the west.
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 142552
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#257 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 10, 2011 1:14 pm

Blown Away wrote:Looking at the TWO Yellow Polygon, pretty clear the NHC is not sure if 92L/Pouch 14L will be it's own entity or will merge w/ the wave behind it, Pouch 15L. I'm leaning towards the merge w/ a good moisture front to protect this area from the dry/duse air to the west.


To clarify,new pouch P15L is the one closer to the coast of Africa around 10W so no merge will occur.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10119
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#258 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 10, 2011 1:27 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Blown Away wrote:Looking at the TWO Yellow Polygon, pretty clear the NHC is not sure if 92L/Pouch 14L will be it's own entity or will merge w/ the wave behind it, Pouch 15L. I'm leaning towards the merge w/ a good moisture front to protect this area from the dry/duse air to the west.


To clarify,new pouch P15L is the one closer to the coast of Africa around 10W so no merge will occur.


Ok, sorry Luis. Looking at the TWO polygon it's clear they circled both areas, so maybe one area will dominate over time?
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

User avatar
Bluefrog
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 295
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 8:26 pm
Location: Pascagoula, Mississippi

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#259 Postby Bluefrog » Wed Aug 10, 2011 1:30 pm

Geez it still shows the invest we are talking about ..... and yes it is IMPRESSIVE.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 142552
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#260 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 10, 2011 1:34 pm

18z Best Track

AL, 92, 2011081018, , BEST, 0, 123N, 307W, 25, 1010, LO
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “2011”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests