ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[USTropics]

Hey Ivan, haven't seen you post as frequently, hope everything is good and yea no need to get antsy with each other over a mere invest that is closer to Africa than the U.S. right now.

Anyways just my subjective thoughts on what I think will occur after viewing this mornings model runs. I see this system developing and staying far enough north to miss the leeward and accompanying islands before recurving out to sea with a potential Bermuda hit. I can see this reaching hurricane strength once the dry air intrusion and environmental conditions become more favorable. The potential wave that has me more worried is the one that is forecasted to exit Africa in the next couple of days. It looks like it will come off and stay more south in latitude. It looks to be close enough to 92l where it may have difficulty early on getting going, with the models suggesting it may not lift north with 92l and instead move into the Caribbean.

[Blown Away]

So much dry/dust air ahead of 92L, IMO there will be some east consolidation w/ the wave just behind.

[NONAME]

pretty good LLC developing. convection starting to build over it. Chances should go up later if more convection builds

i notice that too their no storm over center it look like their se shear over 92l

It probably more due to dry air then anything else really.

[ronjon]

Big Shift west on 12z GFS - trough lifting out and ridging buiding in after 6 days - may be a close call for US east coast.

12z GFS 156 hrs

[GCANE]

Looks like it is developing a small warm-core at 12km altitude and PV anomaly is mid-level at roughly the same height.

Radius-of-Max-Winds (RMW) is at 150km which is relatively close to the COC.

[GCANE]

Big Shift west on 12z GFS - trough lifting out and ridging buiding in after 6 days - may be a close call for US east coast.

12z GFS 156 hrs

The one behind 92L is impressive.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=08%2F10%2F2011+12UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=850_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=ATLANTIC&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=Atlantic+region&prevArea=ATLANTIC&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

[cycloneye]

For model plots and tracks about other systems post them at Talking Tropics forum.

[GCANE]

Possible Recon on Saturday



WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT WED 10 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-071

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 18.0N 52.5W AT 13/1800Z.

[OuterBanker]

Yep, Ronjon.

Trough split and ridging comming off Canada in 6 to 10. Traditional set up for seus strikes. Also, MoJO will be favorable then too.

I will agree that early development almost guarantees a fish, especially at this high a latitude. But, you never know.

Some storms that were predicted to be fish were kicked west into seus. Isabel comes to mind.

[BigA]

NOGAPS (not good model, but might as well mention it) takes it just north of the islands and into the Bahamas, with a possible threat to US east coast.

[underthwx]

Should 92L be moving towards a more favorable environment less shear etc?

[lester]

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 450 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...HOWEVER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[Jevo]

Well hello there SAL.. Our friend SAL looks to be clearing the way for ole 92L until the Dustbowl-O-Doom North of PR/DR

[gmr548]

Probably a dumb question, but is this one all but certain to curve up into the Atlantic/east coast region? Is there any chance that it heads into the Gulf of Mexico?

[SouthDadeFish]

Probably a dumb question, but is this one all but certain to curve up into the Atlantic/east coast region? Is there any chance that it heads into the Gulf of Mexico?

It's quite too early to say, and you should watch it just in case. Much can change in a week. However, at this time recurvature looks more likely in my opinion (which is not professional).

[Blown Away]

Looking at the TWO Yellow Polygon, pretty clear the NHC is not sure if 92L/Pouch 14L will be it's own entity or will merge w/ the wave behind it, Pouch 15L. I'm leaning towards the merge w/ a good moisture front to protect this area from the dry/duse air to the west.

[cycloneye]

Looking at the TWO Yellow Polygon, pretty clear the NHC is not sure if 92L/Pouch 14L will be it's own entity or will merge w/ the wave behind it, Pouch 15L. I'm leaning towards the merge w/ a good moisture front to protect this area from the dry/duse air to the west.

To clarify,new pouch P15L is the one closer to the coast of Africa around 10W so no merge will occur.

[Blown Away]

Looking at the TWO Yellow Polygon, pretty clear the NHC is not sure if 92L/Pouch 14L will be it's own entity or will merge w/ the wave behind it, Pouch 15L. I'm leaning towards the merge w/ a good moisture front to protect this area from the dry/duse air to the west.

To clarify,new pouch P15L is the one closer to the coast of Africa around 10W so no merge will occur.

Ok, sorry Luis. Looking at the TWO polygon it's clear they circled both areas, so maybe one area will dominate over time?

[Bluefrog]

Geez it still shows the invest we are talking about ..... and yes it is IMPRESSIVE.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 92, 2011081018, , BEST, 0, 123N, 307W, 25, 1010, LO