ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion

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caneman

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#241 Postby caneman » Wed Sep 07, 2011 2:26 pm

somethingfunny wrote:
Kübler-Ross's 5 Stages of Grief, as interpreted by SomethingFunny wrote:1. Denial — "I feel fine."; "This can't be happening, not to me."; "The Euro just had one bad run, the GFS is still garbage."
Denial is usually only a temporary defense for the individual. This feeling is generally replaced with heightened awareness of possessions and individuals that will be left behind after death.
2. Anger — "Why me? It's not fair!"; "How can this happen to me?"; '"Who is to blame?"; "The GFS is trash!!!!"
Once in the second stage, the individual recognizes that denial cannot continue. Because of anger, the person is very difficult to care for due to misplaced feelings of rage and envy.
3. Bargaining — "I'll do anything for a few more years."; "I will give my life savings if..."; "I'll pull the plug on you, supercomputer, if you don't bring this storm to Texas"
The third stage involves the hope that the individual can somehow postpone or delay death. Usually, the negotiation for an extended life is made with a higher power in exchange for a reformed lifestyle. Psychologically, the individual is saying, "I understand I will die, but if I could just do something to buy more time..."
4. Depression — "I'm so sad, why bother with anything?"; "I'm going to die soon so whats the point... What's the point?"; "I miss my loved one, why go on?"; "Season Cancel."
During the fourth stage, the dying person begins to understand the certainty of death. Because of this, the individual may become silent, refuse visitors and spend much of the time crying and grieving. This process allows the dying person to disconnect from things of love and affection. It is not recommended to attempt to cheer up an individual who is in this stage. It is an important time for grieving that must be processed.
5. Acceptance — "It's going to be okay."; "I can't fight it, I may as well prepare for it."; "*checks the GFS and the Euro and weighs them equally*"
In this last stage, the individual begins to come to terms with her/his mortality or that of a loved one.


Give the Euro huggers time. :)


LOL - Love it!!
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dwsqos2

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#242 Postby dwsqos2 » Wed Sep 07, 2011 2:26 pm

I can see the stratocumulus to the northwest; but methinks that in terms of intensity Euro may have a better handle.
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#243 Postby RL3AO » Wed Sep 07, 2011 2:26 pm

We have Nate if they decide to upgrade it.
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caneman

Re: Re:

#244 Postby caneman » Wed Sep 07, 2011 2:27 pm

Wthrman13 wrote:
lonelymike wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:Euro finally making some sense. Looks like the GFS may win this one.[/quote

.....never thought I would hear those words :eek: A piece of crap model beats King Euro...say it ain't so :double:


Sorry, but the GFS is hardly a "piece of crap". It's one of the best models out there.


Nice to see a Pro Met and/or a Mod say it. Yes indeed. Gotta love the GFS so far this year.
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#245 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 07, 2011 2:28 pm

was not surprised about the winds. the trough attached my hold them back... maybe STS
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#246 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Sep 07, 2011 2:28 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:recon nearly there should find a TD maybe a TS in convection on south side.


Nice one Aric ;) Circulation evident and TS force winds in SW quadrant.
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#247 Postby craptacular » Wed Sep 07, 2011 2:29 pm

... and now some TS-force winds, some of which are flagged (but not all).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#248 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 07, 2011 2:29 pm

RENUMBER al96 al15
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#249 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Sep 07, 2011 2:30 pm

Brent wrote:RENUMBER al96 al15


where? I don't see it on http://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

Edit: Nevermind, I found it. :D
Last edited by Extratropical94 on Wed Sep 07, 2011 2:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#250 Postby RL3AO » Wed Sep 07, 2011 2:30 pm

AL, 15, 2011090718, , BEST, 0, 201N, 929W, 40, 1004, TS, 34,

TS Nate.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#251 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 07, 2011 2:32 pm

BEST TRACK: AL15, 202N 925W, 40kts, 1004mb, TS NATE
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#252 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 07, 2011 2:32 pm

Extratropical94 wrote:
Brent wrote:RENUMBER al96 al15


where? I don't see it on http://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/


Here it is.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#253 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Sep 07, 2011 2:33 pm

We have Nate! Nate, please come to Texas and put all of our wildfires out. Pretty please?
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#254 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 07, 2011 2:34 pm

yeah you cant not upgrade that too something... either TS or STS. good call convection increasing closer to center.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Recon

#255 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 07, 2011 2:34 pm

Image
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#256 Postby somethingfunny » Wed Sep 07, 2011 2:37 pm

Fort Worth's NWS office explains the track forecast:

Image
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Re:

#257 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 07, 2011 2:38 pm

craptacular wrote:... and now some TS-force winds, some of which are flagged (but not all).


Best Track came out as TS Nate. AL15, 202N 925W, 40, 1004, TS NATE
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Recon

#258 Postby clfenwi » Wed Sep 07, 2011 2:39 pm

URNT15 KNHC 071930
AF300 01IIA INVEST HDOB 20 20110907
192030 1925N 09257W 9894 00148 //// +214 //// 271047 048 046 014 05
192100 1923N 09258W 9893 00148 //// +211 //// 273047 050 047 013 05
192130 1921N 09258W 9899 00147 //// +212 //// 270049 051 047 012 01
192200 1920N 09258W 9890 00154 //// +215 //// 268043 044 044 006 01
192230 1918N 09258W 9907 00143 //// +218 //// 266045 046 042 006 01
192300 1917N 09258W 9907 00142 //// +220 //// 270045 048 041 009 05
192330 1916N 09259W 9887 00160 //// +218 //// 271042 043 044 007 05
192400 1915N 09300W 9899 00151 //// +218 //// 271041 042 045 007 01
192430 1914N 09301W 9898 00153 //// +220 //// 269039 040 042 010 05
192500 1914N 09302W 9905 00147 //// +219 //// 268039 039 041 007 01
192530 1913N 09304W 9896 00156 //// +215 //// 267039 040 044 001 01
192600 1913N 09305W 9879 00171 //// +215 //// 266039 040 041 003 05
192630 1912N 09306W 9905 00149 //// +215 //// 266040 041 042 002 05
192700 1911N 09307W 9898 00155 //// +215 //// 266040 041 041 002 05
192730 1911N 09308W 9883 00167 //// +212 //// 265040 041 041 002 01
192800 1910N 09309W 9894 00160 //// +213 //// 267040 041 040 003 05
192830 1910N 09311W 9886 00166 //// +212 //// 269039 041 040 002 01
192900 1909N 09312W 9891 00163 //// +214 //// 267040 041 040 002 05
192930 1908N 09312W 9885 00170 //// +214 //// 267041 043 037 002 05
193000 1906N 09312W 9907 00151 //// +214 //// 266041 042 038 002 05
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#259 Postby caneman » Wed Sep 07, 2011 2:40 pm

So we have Nate now??
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#260 Postby Tireman4 » Wed Sep 07, 2011 2:41 pm

Nate who?
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