ATL: OPHELIA - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#241 Postby tobol.7uno » Tue Sep 20, 2011 4:41 pm

MGC wrote:98L looks real close to being upgraded IMO. Just needs a bit more convection near the CC.....MGC

Looks to me like the overall organization of 98 has changed little today. There is a bit more obvious rotation, but the convection as not increased nor has the organization.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#242 Postby tobol.7uno » Tue Sep 20, 2011 4:46 pm

Microwave imagery does show some organization...
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#243 Postby abajan » Tue Sep 20, 2011 4:51 pm

stormy70 wrote:I am here and just lurking around a bit. Been a crazy two weeks taking oldest daughter her cross country meets and birthdays.
That's interesting but I'm trying to make the connection between that and Invest 98L :?:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#244 Postby Gustywind » Tue Sep 20, 2011 5:23 pm

wxman57 wrote:It could have a significant impact on the NE Caribbean.

Why do you say that Wxman57? Can you explain please :). You guess that for us in the islands more amount of precipitation could pose a big troubles if 98L decides to grow and churn near the Leewards, Northern Leewards and PR. Thanks for your input :D.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#245 Postby boca » Tue Sep 20, 2011 5:29 pm

I would be real surprised if this storm didn't recurve like the rest have this season.
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#246 Postby Gustywind » Tue Sep 20, 2011 5:32 pm

000
AGXX40 KNHC 201820
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2011

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...

LOW PRES IN CENTRAL ATLC AT 12N38W EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
MOVE W THROUGH WED POSSIBLY BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW
PRES CENTER REACH TROPICAL N ATLC FRI AND MOVE INTO ERN
CARIBBEAN LATE SAT INTO SUN. MODEL GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT CONCERNING ITS WESTWARD TRACK WITH THE LOW SE OF
PUERTO RICO SUN. ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS APPROACH TROPICAL
STORM FORCE MAINLY IN ITS NRN SEMICIRCLE SINCE EARLY WED.
WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN THE TROPICAL ATLC ZONE THU WITH
SEAS BUILDING 8-12 FT. AS THE LOW...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE
APPROACHES THE AREA FRI WINDS INCREASE TO AT LEAST 25-30 KT AND
SEA 10-15 FT.
WARNINGS...

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
.NONE.

SW N ATLC...
.NONE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER DGS
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#247 Postby caribepr » Tue Sep 20, 2011 5:54 pm

boca wrote:I would be real surprised if this storm didn't recurve like the rest have this season.


Not sure what you mean by that, sorry?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#248 Postby tobol.7uno » Tue Sep 20, 2011 6:12 pm

caribepr wrote:
boca wrote:I would be real surprised if this storm didn't recurve like the rest have this season.


Not sure what you mean by that, sorry?

This storm will most likely turn north and miss the CONUS to the east.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#249 Postby OURAGAN » Tue Sep 20, 2011 6:18 pm

Convection is increasing near 11N/40W
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#250 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 20, 2011 6:36 pm

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...BUT RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION CENTER. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM IN THIS AREA TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY...
AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5
TO 10 MPH.
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#251 Postby Gustywind » Tue Sep 20, 2011 6:54 pm

From NRL:
20110920.2315.98LINVEST.30kts-1007mb-120N-383W.
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#252 Postby Gustywind » Tue Sep 20, 2011 7:09 pm

000
AXNT20 KNHC 210005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 12N38W. ACCORDING TO THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THIS LOW IS EMBEDDED IN A
REGION OF HIGH MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 36W-43W. THE SYSTEM DOES
NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT THE TIME.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TO FORM IN THIS AREA LATER TODAY OR ON WEDNESDAY. PRESENT
MOVEMENT IS WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
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#253 Postby Gustywind » Tue Sep 20, 2011 7:11 pm

20/2345 UTC 12.5N 39.6W T2.0/2.0 98L
20/1745 UTC 12.3N 38.3W T2.0/2.0 98L
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#254 Postby tobol.7uno » Tue Sep 20, 2011 7:47 pm

wxman57 wrote:It could have a significant impact on the NE Caribbean.

Impacts in the way of rainfall? It is very unlikely that it will be strong enough to do significant wind damage, and it should be moving fast enough to not drop to much rainfall.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#255 Postby tobol.7uno » Tue Sep 20, 2011 7:51 pm

Latest models, slight south shift.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#256 Postby tobol.7uno » Tue Sep 20, 2011 8:12 pm

Impressive convection tonight! This thing is really wrapping up tonight.
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#257 Postby fci » Tue Sep 20, 2011 8:15 pm

It does have "that" look to it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#258 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 20, 2011 8:19 pm

And it has pretty strong winds as shown by the latest ASCAT pass made just before 8 PM EDT.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#259 Postby tobol.7uno » Tue Sep 20, 2011 8:22 pm

Intensity models...
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#260 Postby tobol.7uno » Tue Sep 20, 2011 8:23 pm

Another look at the models... From my facebook page.
Image
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