ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[ozonepete]

Has anyone heard from cycloneye?

Look further back, a page or two. His power about to go out so he signed off. He's fine tho.

[KWT]

Center looksm like its passing right over the northern part of the island, should get a decent idea of the track at the moment, my guess is its wobbling around quite abit but mean motion will be just north of west.

Recon will probably find 60-70kts winds at flight level will pass through.

[BatzVI]

St. Thomas and St. John under flash flood warning until 8:45pm...its h
owling up by the top of Barrett Hill.

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 212239
AF302 0309A IRENE HDOB 04 20110821
222900 1750N 06442W 8302 01589 9958 +166 //// 157022 024 /// /// 05
222930 1752N 06442W 8310 01580 9959 +174 //// 140024 025 /// /// 05
223000 1754N 06443W 8312 01578 9960 +166 //// 131027 031 /// /// 05
223030 1755N 06444W 8317 01578 9964 +163 //// 117029 030 /// /// 05
223100 1757N 06445W 8302 01590 9967 +166 //// 104034 038 /// /// 05
223130 1758N 06446W 8310 01587 //// +154 //// 100043 044 /// /// 05
223200 1800N 06446W 8302 01598 9978 +162 //// 101047 049 /// /// 05
223230 1801N 06445W 8306 01601 9983 +168 //// 106044 044 /// /// 05
223300 1802N 06444W 8361 01570 //// +152 //// 111046 046 /// /// 05
223330 1804N 06443W 8445 01466 9997 +169 //// 112043 044 /// /// 05
223400 1805N 06443W 8433 01484 //// +158 //// 111045 045 /// /// 05
223430 1807N 06442W 8430 01489 //// +150 //// 109047 047 /// /// 05
223500 1808N 06441W 8430 01494 //// +145 //// 111048 048 /// /// 05
223530 1809N 06440W 8434 01494 //// +145 //// 111054 054 /// /// 05
223600 1810N 06439W 8434 01498 //// +145 //// 113053 054 /// /// 05
223630 1811N 06438W 8429 01505 //// +143 //// 114054 056 049 006 01
223700 1812N 06437W 8434 01504 //// +147 //// 115055 056 049 004 01
223730 1813N 06436W 8431 01509 //// +145 //// 118053 054 048 005 01
223800 1814N 06435W 8433 01512 0043 +154 //// 120054 056 045 004 01
223830 1815N 06433W 8429 01518 //// +147 //// 116054 057 043 006 01
$$
;

[SFLcane]

[tolakram]

That will go down in history as one of the more exciting recon launches. Great pic Hurakan

[brunota2003]

Recon found 57 knot winds off the bat...using the .80 reduction comes out to 45.6 knots...SFMR readings of 45 to 48 knots, too.

[HURAKAN]

[SouthDadeFish]

Recon found 57 knot winds off the bat...using the .80 reduction comes out to 45.6 knots...SFMR readings of 45 to 48 knots, too.

I thought they use a .9 reduction now....

[NDG]

So by looking at the Sat & radar loop, as if her COC or eye like feature is slanted N to S, maybe? What y'all think.

[brunota2003]

Recon found 57 knot winds off the bat...using the .80 reduction comes out to 45.6 knots...SFMR readings of 45 to 48 knots, too.

I thought they use a .9 reduction now....

From what I understand, it is .80 when they are flying at the 850 mb level.

[fci]

The recon taking off from St Croix is kind of similar to the NHC using their instruments to report on a storm that is passing through Coral Gables like they did with Katrina.

[ronjon]

Very large center - have to see if that contracts and we get some eyewall forming. Looks to be wobbling W-SW the last few hours.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[KWT]

Already enough found by recon to up the winds to 50kts from the looks of things, so as we all expected we have a strengthening storm on our hands, and I suspect its not far off from RI either.

[SouthDadeFish]

Recon found 57 knot winds off the bat...using the .80 reduction comes out to 45.6 knots...SFMR readings of 45 to 48 knots, too.

I thought they use a .9 reduction now....

From what I understand, it is .80 when they are flying at the 850 mb level.

Ah, I believe you are correct. I think the 700mb level is 0.9.

[DisasterMagnet]

This reminds me very much of Marilyn, in that Irene went from a TS to a rapidly intensifying hurricane. I am absolutely an amatuer, but I perceive this happening right now.
It's a bit of a suprise how quickly the power on STT went out, unless they shut it down purposely.

Now if only Irene would turn out to sea like Marilyn...

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 212249
AF302 0309A IRENE HDOB 05 20110821
223900 1816N 06432W 8459 01494 //// +140 //// 119051 055 045 010 01
223930 1817N 06431W 8428 01523 //// +140 //// 118047 048 045 010 05
224000 1818N 06430W 8439 01514 //// +143 //// 115053 054 044 005 01
224030 1818N 06429W 8427 01527 0058 +146 //// 117051 052 042 003 01
224100 1819N 06427W 8434 01520 0057 +153 //// 120051 051 041 003 01
224130 1820N 06426W 8432 01526 0060 +152 //// 122049 051 042 001 01
224200 1820N 06425W 8430 01529 0059 +157 +150 123050 050 040 002 00
224230 1821N 06423W 8438 01523 0060 +162 +143 124048 049 041 000 00
224300 1821N 06422W 8428 01537 0060 +165 +136 125047 048 040 001 00
224330 1822N 06421W 8435 01528 0060 +165 +141 127047 047 039 002 00
224400 1823N 06419W 8433 01533 0063 +160 +154 127046 047 039 001 00
224430 1823N 06418W 8434 01533 0065 +158 +157 128044 046 040 003 00
224500 1824N 06417W 8433 01535 0071 +151 //// 126045 047 040 005 01
224530 1825N 06415W 8430 01535 0066 +156 +156 129046 047 040 004 00
224600 1825N 06414W 8433 01535 0074 +148 //// 129048 051 040 008 01
224630 1826N 06413W 8439 01529 //// +131 //// 129047 048 047 019 01
224700 1827N 06411W 8432 01537 //// +130 //// 128047 050 051 030 01
224730 1827N 06410W 8449 01521 //// +132 //// 126046 048 050 022 01
224800 1828N 06408W 8425 01546 //// +145 //// 125042 045 041 009 01
224830 1828N 06407W 8433 01532 //// +143 //// 127036 042 042 017 05
$$
;

[KWT]

Nice new band developing just to the north of the center on the radar, that may well be a formative eyewall that is trying to get going.

Any WSW/SW motion is probably an optical illusion but recon will let us know one way or the other, suppose it is possible that as it feels PR it tries to wobble around it.

PS, recon does confirm center is north of St.Croix, just south of the band developing.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Yeah what amazing launch, probably just 10 miles away from the center of Irene, very cool start!

Recon just missed the center so pressure maybe closer to 994mbs.