ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[NC George]

Saved radar loop from wunderground.

http://i.imgur.com/Uy8Q4.gif

Looks to me like an eyewall is starting to form on the east side of the central area of the storm with no rain that most people would call an eye.

[chris_fit]

I think the WSW motion is an optical illusion. She is just really trying to wrap all that new convection around the center giving the illusion that it took a dip to the S. I think this latest hot tower might have just set her off.

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 212309
AF302 0309A IRENE HDOB 07 20110821
225900 1857N 06351W 8439 01543 //// +136 //// 102041 043 045 019 01
225930 1858N 06350W 8430 01551 //// +136 //// 103041 044 042 018 01
230000 1900N 06350W 8438 01540 //// +142 //// 105039 041 041 012 01
230030 1901N 06350W 8432 01549 //// +147 //// 109042 046 042 011 05
230100 1903N 06351W 8428 01549 //// +143 //// 097040 043 056 019 05
230130 1903N 06353W 8441 01542 //// +139 //// 098038 042 052 016 01
230200 1903N 06355W 8431 01548 0086 +153 //// 107033 041 039 005 01
230230 1903N 06357W 8418 01582 0110 +150 //// 101035 037 036 010 01
230300 1903N 06359W 8429 01574 //// +144 //// 093037 039 038 010 01
230330 1903N 06401W 8434 01568 0107 +152 //// 096043 044 036 003 01
230400 1903N 06403W 8429 01573 0102 +164 +157 096041 042 035 003 00
230430 1903N 06406W 8438 01562 0103 +161 +157 096037 038 036 003 00
230500 1903N 06408W 8434 01567 0102 +162 +157 102037 039 039 002 00
230530 1903N 06410W 8435 01563 0102 +156 //// 101039 042 037 005 01
230600 1903N 06412W 8435 01566 0099 +166 +159 098043 045 038 003 00
230630 1903N 06414W 8432 01568 0100 +165 +156 096043 044 038 000 00
230700 1902N 06416W 8432 01569 0099 +169 +150 098042 043 037 000 00
230730 1902N 06418W 8430 01570 0099 +169 +151 098042 042 037 000 00
230800 1902N 06420W 8433 01567 0098 +169 +150 099041 042 037 000 00
230830 1902N 06422W 8434 01564 0099 +165 +151 099041 042 037 000 00
$$
;

[KWT]

Couldn't PR actually help it? The friction over land could tighten the circulation?

Yeah, maybe part of the reason why we've got that big convective flare-up happening right now on the NE side.

That radar loop is really useful, you can see exactly what I mean when I say the system is wrapping around nicely.

[cpdaman]

I wont b shocked to watch p.r stun irene and then the d.r deliver k.o punch. Looks lined up to run most of p.r and d.r imo

[Evil Jeremy]

I think the WSW motion is an optical illusion. She is just really trying to wrap all that new convection around the center giving the illusion that it took a dip to the S. I think this latest hot tower might have just set her off.

At the very least, it's not moving WNW.

[HURAKAN]

[Hurricaneman]

This also seems to have slowed down considerably on radar, what would that do to the track

[KWT]

I wont b shocked to watch p.r stun irene and then the d.r deliver k.o punch. Looks lined up to run most of p.r and d.r imo

PR won't even put a dent in a system this size, DR obviously will hurt the system but as for a K.O blow, with very good conditions aloft, i'd be very surprised.

This is NOT Emily, its already far better organised at the lower levels then Emily every managed to get and conditions aloft are far better, hardly any shear.

[TwisterFanatic]

I wont b shocked to watch p.r stun irene and then the d.r deliver k.o punch. Looks lined up to run most of p.r and d.r imo

You're assuming Irene goes over mainland PR. Plus, with the size of this system, PR won't even phase Irene.

[ozonepete]

I wont b shocked to watch p.r stun irene and then the d.r deliver k.o punch. Looks lined up to run most of p.r and d.r imo

If it runs most of PR from SE to NW then it may pass just north of DR. That would be really bad because it would mean some really strong intensification before it even gets near the U.S..

[UpTheCreek]

NDG, good loop.

What will happen is the new convection will attempt to wrap around a tighter core, its worked so far on the northern flank and thats why it has the illusion of dropping south because the northern dry slot has been eroded. True motion still looks fairly close to due west to me, but heck I could be wrong and this:

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Is worthwhile highlighting!

From the wunderground animation from Tolakram, it really illustrates your explanation and reasoning. I too see it as due west. Very well put!

[ozonepete]

I think the WSW motion is an optical illusion. She is just really trying to wrap all that new convection around the center giving the illusion that it took a dip to the S. I think this latest hot tower might have just set her off.

At the very least, it's not moving WNW.

RECON will tell us, but it looks 280 to me.

[ronjon]

Based on the radar presentation Irene is deepening. Could have a hurricane by tomorrow moring or maybe sooner.

[Zampanò]

There has definitely been a significant wobble to the south. I expect this will be a hurricane before the night is finished.

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 212319
AF302 0309A IRENE HDOB 08 20110821
230900 1902N 06424W 8429 01571 0102 +162 +149 098041 042 038 003 00
230930 1902N 06426W 8436 01564 0104 +160 +154 099042 042 038 002 00
231000 1901N 06429W 8432 01567 0101 +164 +148 092040 041 039 000 00
231030 1901N 06431W 8431 01566 0102 +163 +148 096040 041 038 002 00
231100 1901N 06433W 8436 01566 0102 +160 +152 092041 041 037 001 00
231130 1901N 06435W 8433 01567 0100 +163 +149 094040 041 037 002 00
231200 1901N 06437W 8431 01568 0098 +166 +146 093039 040 036 002 00
231230 1901N 06439W 8432 01567 0099 +164 +150 086039 039 037 002 00
231300 1900N 06441W 8435 01563 0098 +160 +154 087038 039 038 001 00
231330 1900N 06443W 8436 01559 0098 +160 +154 089038 038 039 002 00
231400 1900N 06445W 8433 01565 0097 +165 +151 091039 039 040 002 00
231430 1900N 06447W 8433 01564 0097 +165 +148 090040 040 042 002 00
231500 1901N 06449W 8431 01565 0097 +164 +151 085041 042 041 004 00
231530 1901N 06452W 8434 01562 0099 +160 //// 077043 044 040 005 01
231600 1901N 06454W 8432 01566 0098 +164 +156 082043 045 041 003 00
231630 1901N 06456W 8435 01563 0098 +162 +157 079043 044 042 003 00
231700 1901N 06458W 8431 01566 0102 +157 //// 080045 046 041 004 05
231730 1901N 06500W 8430 01569 0103 +157 //// 078044 044 /// /// 05
231800 1900N 06502W 8428 01570 0099 +160 +154 078046 047 043 004 03
231830 1900N 06504W 8435 01561 0101 +158 +154 080048 048 044 003 00
$$
;

[UpTheCreek]

There has definitely been a significant wobble to the south. I expect this will be a hurricane before the night is finished.

No, not definite and I respectfully disagree. See KWT's explanation of the illussion it gives because of it's elongation. The whole storm still appears to be going west, yet the movement of the "eye" shifts north and south. At least that's my take and I'm not an expert!

[HURAKAN]

[jlauderdal]

Eye!

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/JUA.N0Z ... .48_an.gif

She's becoming really organized now. Looking at this, motion is either west or slightly south of due west.

6-8 hours of that motion and sofla better watch out. of course it could hit the shredder of hispanola too

[johngaltfla]

NDG, good loop.

What will happen is the new convection will attempt to wrap around a tighter core, its worked so far on the northern flank and thats why it has the illusion of dropping south because the northern dry slot has been eroded. True motion still looks fairly close to due west to me, but heck I could be wrong and this:

Is worthwhile highlighting!

Great observations by KWT.

That hot tower in the NE quadrant looks like the intensification is indeed happening rapidly. That storm reminds me of several of the 04-05 storms which just suddenly accelerated in strength. Based on the current favorable conditions and radar presentation, I think you're spot on KWT. We could have a hurricane by 11 pm, if not then by 0500 ET for sure, IMHO.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.