ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

Hehe, click on the below link and take a look at this hot tower that just popped. Looks like an eyeball

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg

[bella_may]

There has definitely been a significant wobble to the south. I expect this will be a hurricane before the night is finished.

I noticed that as well.I wonder if that will cause the track to shift more to the south or west?

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Wow. Its really exploding near the center. Take a look at the last two frames.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

[wzrgirl1]

There has definitely been a significant wobble to the south. I expect this will be a hurricane before the night is finished.

I noticed that as well.I wonder if that will cause the track to shift more to the south or west?

I believe you were asked to list your location awhile back. Can you please do that so we have a reference. Thanks!

[Evil Jeremy]

After all of the "it's right of the track" statements so far, it looks like (to my untrained eyes) that Irene is, with it's westward motion, south (but not by much) of the current forecast track.

[ronjon]

Eye!

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/JUA.N0Z ... .48_an.gif

She's becoming really organized now. Looking at this, motion is either west or slightly south of due west.

6-8 hours of that motion and sofla better watch out. of course it could hit the shredder of hispanola too

Don't know if this means much, but the 8 pm position of 12z HWRF model was about a degree north and west of Irene's current location. The 12z GFDL has the same longitude as Irene currently but about 0.5 deg north on latitude. Interestly the 12z HWRF 3 km experimental model seems to have nailed the short term motion and position.

[jlauderdal]

Wow. Its really exploding near the center. Take a look at the last two frames.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

that hot tower is going to roll right over cycloneye

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Wow. Its really exploding near the center. Take a look at the last two frames.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

that hot tower is going to roll right over cycloneye

And over me :S

[KWT]

Based on the radar presentation Irene is deepening. Could have a hurricane by tomorrow moring or maybe sooner.

Yep, could become a hurricane as it hits S.PR from the looks of things, the trend for a tighter core looks good at the moment, sure looks like an eyewall getting going, it has tried several times already in the last few hours but this is by far the ebst attempt yet!

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 212329
AF302 0309A IRENE HDOB 09 20110821
231900 1859N 06506W 8432 01564 0101 +158 +149 080049 050 045 005 00
231930 1859N 06508W 8435 01561 0102 +155 +149 081051 051 044 005 00
232000 1859N 06510W 8431 01566 0101 +155 +151 080052 053 045 006 00
232030 1859N 06512W 8435 01559 0101 +154 +151 078056 057 046 005 00
232100 1859N 06515W 8432 01563 0097 +159 +150 081055 056 046 005 00
232130 1858N 06517W 8438 01554 0094 +164 +150 078053 054 045 005 00
232200 1858N 06519W 8436 01557 0088 +173 +149 075046 048 046 002 00
232230 1858N 06521W 8429 01567 0089 +171 +155 078046 048 045 002 00
232300 1858N 06523W 8436 01559 0090 +170 +149 078044 045 043 000 00
232330 1857N 06525W 8428 01566 0090 +173 +139 082045 046 043 001 00
232400 1857N 06528W 8434 01563 0088 +179 +136 085044 045 043 000 00
232430 1857N 06530W 8433 01563 0090 +178 +132 084044 045 042 001 00
232500 1857N 06532W 8429 01567 0093 +174 +132 083045 045 043 000 00
232530 1856N 06534W 8432 01567 0098 +167 +136 081044 045 041 001 00
232600 1856N 06536W 8434 01565 0100 +163 +149 078044 045 039 000 00
232630 1856N 06538W 8440 01560 0102 +160 +156 074044 045 038 001 00
232700 1856N 06540W 8431 01569 0103 +161 +157 073036 040 037 000 00
232730 1856N 06542W 8425 01573 0099 +168 +149 072035 037 038 001 00
232800 1855N 06544W 8431 01570 0099 +168 +140 073032 033 036 000 00
232830 1855N 06546W 8433 01567 0101 +165 +145 072032 033 034 000 00
$$
;

[chris_fit]

I see WXMAN57 lurking, hope he provides his take on Irene this evening

[bella_may]

There has definitely been a significant wobble to the south. I expect this will be a hurricane before the night is finished.

I noticed that as well.I wonder if that will cause the track to shift more to the south or west?

I believe you were asked to list your location awhile back. Can you please do that so we have a reference. Thanks!

I will when I get home on the computer! Right now I'm on my phone and it wont let me LOL

[HURAKAN]

[johngaltfla]

I hope someone has video of that takeoff. That takes a pair fully fueled to take off in that....

[tolakram]

Tightening up or just angry. Really looks rough out there.


Saved on Imgur.com which can save animated images, unlike imageshack

[ozonepete]

But we all should not forget one of the first rules of tropical cyclones that have a precip free eye or COC. When the center crosses over land friction from the land causes the winds to shift inward towards the centerpoint instead of around it. That causes the center to fill in and you'll se it on radar because precip will fill in there. Irene will be no exception to this because most if not all of the center is going to go over land. I would think the process is already beginning from the looks of it. It may keep up most of its wind because PR is small, but it can't intensify while most of the core is over land. Provided the core goes over land.

[jlauderdal]

Wow. Its really exploding near the center. Take a look at the last two frames.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

that hot tower is going to roll right over cycloneye

And over me :S

yes and you too..let us know what happens..the NE quad is looking much better, that keeps intensifying and you will have some heavy weather

[KWT]

Ne quad has really pepped up in the last hour or so thanks to that hot tower that blew up in that same timeframe.

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 212339
AF302 0309A IRENE HDOB 10 20110821
232900 1855N 06548W 8436 01564 0097 +170 +143 070033 036 034 000 00
232930 1855N 06550W 8432 01568 0094 +177 +137 068034 035 035 000 00
233000 1855N 06552W 8437 01564 0097 +174 +142 066032 033 034 000 00
233030 1854N 06554W 8432 01571 0106 +158 +152 066036 036 032 000 00
233100 1854N 06556W 8438 01565 0101 +168 +142 060034 035 031 000 00
233130 1854N 06558W 8429 01574 0098 +178 +125 052034 034 032 000 00
233200 1854N 06600W 8433 01571 0100 +172 +134 053035 036 031 000 00
233230 1853N 06602W 8436 01568 0103 +168 +140 055036 036 029 001 00
233300 1853N 06604W 8432 01575 0108 +166 +149 052035 036 028 000 03
233330 1851N 06605W 8427 01579 0104 +170 +142 051034 035 /// /// 03
233400 1850N 06604W 8437 01567 0101 +170 +141 050032 033 030 000 00
233430 1849N 06603W 8433 01570 0100 +175 +135 047033 033 033 000 00
233500 1848N 06601W 8432 01572 0098 +175 +134 047034 034 032 000 00
233530 1847N 06600W 8430 01572 0098 +175 +132 052034 035 031 000 00
233600 1846N 06559W 8435 01569 0098 +172 +141 060032 033 032 000 00
233630 1845N 06558W 8433 01569 0099 +170 +139 069031 032 031 000 00
233700 1843N 06557W 8436 01564 0098 +170 +138 068031 031 032 000 00
233730 1842N 06556W 8432 01569 0098 +170 +144 066031 032 031 000 00
233800 1841N 06554W 8436 01562 0093 +175 +138 066032 033 033 000 00
233830 1840N 06553W 8433 01564 0092 +174 +142 062034 035 035 000 00
$$
;

[KWT]

I'd love recon to pass through that hot tower, it was just get going as recon took off, could find some very interesting winds in there.